Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid November 12, 2023 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This will be updated around Nov. 24, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions are no longer being observed across Deep South Texas. Severe Drought (D2) conditions now cover over 28% of Deep South Texas, including portions of Kenedy, Brooks, Starr, and Hidalgo counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions continue across over 58% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Brooks and Starr counties, most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, and Cameron counties, and most of eastern Hidalgo County. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions continue across 10% of Deep South Texas, including portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Kenedy, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties, as well as most of Willacy County. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought conditions have improved across most of Deep South Texas, including a 2 class improvement across southeastern Kenedy, eastern Willacy, southeastern Hidalgo, and western Cameron counties. There has been a 1 class improvement across majority of Deep South Texas. There has been no change in drought condition across portions of northern Jim Hogg, most of Brooks, western portions of Kenedy, central to northeastern Starr, central to northwestern Hidalgo, central Willacy, and northwestern Cameron counties. Precipitation Rainfall has increased across most of Deep South Texas over the past 30 days, with multiple frontal boundaries into November bringing persistent beneficial rainfall. Most of the mid to upper Rio Grande Valley has received less than 75% of normal rainfall over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received less than 75% of normal rainfall, while the mid to upper RGV has received 50% of normal rainfall or less. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal between 80-90 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal between 55-65 degrees. Below normal highs and lows this weekend in the 60s and 50s gradually warm towards normal in the low 80s and low 60s by Sunday, November 19, 2023. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows have improved due to beneficial rain over the past week across most basins in Deep South Texas, and water levels at Falcon Lake Reservoir, while improved over the past two weeks, are still near historical lows for the second year in a row. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures have remained well below normal, generally less than the 10th percentile into early November. Crop moistures into early October have remained excessively dry across the Rio Grande Valley. Recent rainfall is expected to improve both. Fire Hazard Impacts Near normal wildland fire activity is expected the remainder of November through January, with below normal wildland fire activity expected in February. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas. Drought Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Selected Municipality Restrictions: as of November 12, 2023 Hidalgo County Agua Sud: Stage 2 McAllen Public Utility: Stage 2 City of Hidalgo: Stage 2 City of Pharr: Stage 2 City of Weslaco: Stage 2 Cameron County Laguna Madre: Stage 3 Brownsville PUB: Stage 2 Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have improved to near normal as waterways have begun to be replenished from beneficial rainfall. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is between the 25th and 75th percentile for this time of year (green shading on the map). Texas water share values at Falcon Lake have improved slightly, but remain near historical lows for the second year in a row. Additional improvement is possible early this week before generally dry weather returns. Reservoir Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1062.98 | 28.5% Falcon Lake: 301.10 | 259.13 | 11.7% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 32.0% | 35.4% | 46.5% Falcon Lake: 8.3% | 11.4% | 14.2% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures remain low across all of Deep South Texas as of November 10, with well below normal soil moisture. Recent rainfall should improve soil moisture into this week. Crop moisture indices did not improve into early November, with excessively dry values reported across the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values have improved to less than 300 across most of Deep South Texas, with values above 500 remaining across the mid to upper Rio Grande Valley. Near normal wildland fire potential is expected through December, and outlooks suggest normal wildland fire potential is expected through January 2024, with below normal wildland fire potential in February 2024. Burn bans are in effect for all of Deep South Texas. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Additional rainfall of generally 2 to 3 inches is expected across Deep South Texas into Sunday, November 19th. All rainfall is expected between today and Tuesday morning as abundant moisture and coastal low pressure is replaced by drier air and building high pressure. Overall, chances through Tuesday, November 21st, are leaning toward near normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks On average, chances are leaning toward above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of November. On average, chances are leaning toward above normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of November. Through January 2024, there is an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures and chances are leaning toward above normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas, including most of the populated Rio Grande Valley through the month of November. Drought is expected to remain, but improve across the mid to upper RGV and portions of the northern ranchlands through January 2024. Drought removal is likely across most of the northern ranchlands, brush country, and the lower RGV through January 2024.