Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid March 23, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around April 4, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ...Extreme Drought Conditions Have Developed Across Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties... ...Severe to Moderate Drought Conditions continue for most of the remainder of Deep South Texas, including most of the Rio Grande Valley... Drought Intensity and Extent Extreme Drought (D3) conditions have developed across 33% of Deep South Texas, including all of Zapata, most of Jim Hogg, and most of Starr counties. Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across nearly 46% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Jim Hogg and Starr counties, as well as all of Brooks, Hidalgo, western Kenedy, western Willacy, and extreme western Cameron counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions are being observed across 13% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Kenedy, most of Willacy, and portions of western Cameron counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions continue across the remaining portions of Deep South Texas, including eastern to coastal Willacy and most of Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Drought conditions have continued to worsen across all of Deep South Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 2 class degradation across all of Zapata, most of Jim Hogg and Starr, as well as portions of Kenedy, Willacy, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties. In the past 4 weeks, there has been a 1 class degradation across the remainder of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Jim Hogg, Starr, all of Brooks, and most of Kenedy, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties. Precipitation Very minimal rainfall has been observed across Deep South Texas over the past month, with multiple dry frontal passages. All of Deep South Texas has received 25% or less of normal rainfall over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, nearly all of Deep South Texas has received 50% or less of normal rainfall, with most of Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg, southern Brooks, west-central Kenedy, northwestern Willacy, and western to northern Hidalgo counties receiving 25% or less of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally slightly above normal between 80-90 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly below normal between 50-60 degrees. Overall, above normal highs and lows are expected through Sunday, March 30, 2025, with near normal highs Thursday, March 27. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows have remained well below normal due to the lack of beneficial rain across most basins in Deep South Texas. Texas water share levels at both Amistad and Falcon Lake remain low. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures generally range from slightly below normal along the coast and lower to mid Rio Grande Valley to below normal across the brush country, with crop moisture indices generally below normal to abnormally dry across most of Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected through April for most of Deep South Texas, with near normal activity May through June. Burn bans are in effect for all counties of Deep South Texas except Cameron County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained much below normal with a continued lack of beneficial rainfall, above normal high temperatures, and dry frontal passages. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is less than the 10th percentile for this time of year (dark red to maroon shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained near 25% at Amistad and near or below 15% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir Data Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1050.83 | 25.9% Falcon Lake: 301.10 | 255.05 | 14.9% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 26.2% | 26.5% | 28.3% Falcon Lake: 15.9% | 13.3% | 16.0% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures range from slightly below normal along the coast and lower to mid Rio Grande Valley to below normal towards the brush country. Crop moisture indices are generally below normal to abnormally dry across most of Deep South Texas. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range between 500-700 across most of Deep South Texas, with KBDI values between 400-500 across Cameron and Willacy counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected through April 2025 for most of Deep South Texas, with near normal wildland fire potential between May and June 2025. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Cameron County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Some much needed rainfall is expected through Saturday, March 29, 2025 across Deep South Texas, with the best chances occurring across the brush country and northern ranchlands Wednesday through Friday. Early rainfall estimates range from 1-2 inches, especially across portions of the northern ranchlands. Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible Thursday into Thursday night where any heavier showers or thunderstorms persist. Overall, rain chances through Tuesday, April 1st, 2025 are leaning toward above normal across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of April. There is a 33-40% probability of below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of April. Through June 2025, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and an equal chance of above or below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas, including the northern ranchlands, brush country, and mid to upper Rio Grande Valley, through June 2025.