Drought Information Statement for Deep South Texas Valid March 8, 2025 Issued By: NWS Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley, TX Contact Information: sr-bro.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated around March 21, 2025, or sooner if drought conditions change significantly Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements Please visit https://www.weather.gov/bro/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates ...Severe Drought Conditions Have Developed Across Portions of the Brush Country and Northern Ranchlands... ...Moderate Drought and Abnormally Dry conditions continue for most of the remainder of Deep South Texas, including the mid to upper Rio Grande Valley... Drought Intensity and Extent Severe Drought (D2) conditions are being observed across 23% of Deep South Texas, including most of Zapata, Jim Hogg, northwestern Brooks, and northwestern Starr counties. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions continue across nearly 54% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr counties, as well as most of Hidalgo, Kenedy, and western Willacy counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions continue across 12% of Deep South Texas, including the remainder of Kenedy, central Willacy, and western Cameron counties. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought conditions have persisted across most of Deep South Texas, with gradually worsening conditions across the brush country and western northern ranchlands in Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr counties. There has been a 1 class degradation across most of Zapata and Jim Hogg counties, as well as portions of northwestern Brooks, and northwestern Starr counties. There has been no change in drought condition across the remainder of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, most of Kenedy, all of Hidalgo, western Willacy, and western Cameron counties. Precipitation Very minimal rainfall has been observed across Deep South Texas over the past month, with multiple dry frontal passages. All of Deep South Texas has received 25% or less of normal rainfall over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, most of Deep South Texas has received between 25 to 50% of normal rainfall, with portions of eastern Starr, western Hidalgo, and southern Brooks receiving less than 25% of normal rainfall. Temperature Average Maximum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near to slightly above normal between 70-80 degrees. Average Minimum Temperatures over the past 30 days across Deep South Texas have ranged generally near normal between 50-60 degrees. Overall, above normal highs and lows are expected through Friday, March 14, 2025, with slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflows have remained well below normal due to the lack of beneficial rain across most basins in Deep South Texas. Texas water share levels at both Amistad and Falcon Lake remain low. Agricultural Impacts Please see the latest Crop and Weather Report from Texas A&M AgriLife. Soil moistures generally range from near normal along the coast and lower to mid Rio Grande Valley to below normal across the brush country, with crop moisture indices near normal to abnormally dry across the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Above normal wildland fire activity is expected through April for most of Deep South Texas, with near normal activity May through June. Burn bans are in effect for all counties of Deep South Texas except Cameron County. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Streamflows over the past 7 days have remained much below normal with a continued lack of beneficial rainfall, above normal high temperatures, and dry frontal passages. Most of the streamflow across Deep South Texas is less than the 10th percentile for this time of year (maroon shading on the map). Texas water share values have remained near 25% at Amistad and near 15% at Falcon Lake. Reservoir Pool Elevation* (ft) | Current Elevation* (ft) | Percent Full* Amistad: 1117.00 | 1051.13 | 26.2% Falcon Lake: 301.10 | 255.85 | 15.9% Percent Full*: 1 Month Ago | 3 Months Ago | 1 Year Ago Amistad: 26.3% | 26.5% | 26.3% Falcon Lake: 14.9% | 12.6% | 17.2% * = Current Texas Water Share Agricultural Impacts Soil moistures range from near normal along the coast and lower to mid Rio Grande Valley to below normal towards the brush country. Crop moisture indices are generally near normal to abnormally dry across the Rio Grande Valley. Fire Hazard Impacts Keetch-Byram Drought Index values generally range between 500-700 across most of Deep South Texas, with KBDI values between 300-500 across Cameron and Willacy counties. Above normal wildland fire potential is expected through April 2025 for most of Deep South Texas, with near normal wildland fire potential between May and June 2025. Burn bans remain in effect for all of Deep South Texas except Cameron County. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Little to no rainfall is expected through Friday, March 14, 2025 across Deep South Texas. Overall, rain chances through Monday, March 17th, are likely below normal across Deep South Texas. Long-Range Outlooks There is a 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the month of March. There is a 50-60% probability of below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas through the month of March. Through May 2025, there is a likely chance of above normal temperatures and chances are leaning toward below normal rainfall across Deep South Texas. Drought Outlook Drought is expected to persist across most of Deep South Texas, including the northern ranchlands, brush country, and mid to upper Rio Grande Valley, through May 2025. Drought is expected to develop across the remainder of Deep South Texas, including coastal counties and lower Rio Grande Valley through May 2025.