Drought Information Statement for Southern New England Issued By: NWS Boston/Norton, MA Contact information: box.webmaster@noaa.gov Current Status, Impacts, and Outlook 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Latest U.S. Drought Monitor Map National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA D2 Severe Drought: Northeast MA including Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, and Norfolk counties. D1 Moderate Drought: Most of Worcester, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, and Berkshire Counties in MA a well as the northern border of CT. D0 Abnormally Dry: Most of CT, RI, and protinos of Bristol and Plymouth counties in MA. Recent Change in Drought Intensity 1-Week Drought Monitor Class Change National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Drought Worsened: 1 Drought class degradation for portions of western, central, and northeastern MA. No Change: No changes in Drought Intensity for most of RI and eastern CT as well as for some portions of MA Drought Improved: No improvements this week Observed Precipitation National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Only 0.5 to 1.5 inches of new rainfall over the last 30 days in southern New England 30 day precipitation accumulations are less than 25% of normal across the vast majority of southern New England with the exceptions all below 50% of normal. 3 Month Observed and Percent of Normal National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways 90 day precipitation accumulations generally ranging from 6 to 12 inches across southern New England with a few locations in central/eastern MA below 6 inches 90 day accumulations only fall in the 25 to 50 percent of normal range for about half of southern New England. Rest of southern New England has received 50 to 75% of normal precipitation over the last 90 days. Observed Temperature National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Temperatures averaging about 1 to 2 degrees above normal over the last 30 days Summary of Impacts National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow levels largely below 10th percentile or at record low levels for this time of year at various stream gages across southern New England Falling groundwater levels may lead to localized water resource impacts Agricultural Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Fire Hazard Impacts Numerous active brush fires in MA and CT CT Brush Fire More Info →https://portal.ct.gov/deep/news-releases/news-releases---2024 MA Brush Fire More Info → https://www.mass.gov/news/brush-fire-warning-state-local-leaders-urge-caution-amid-high-fire-risk State Drought Declarations MA declared mild drought for portions of central and eastern MA on October 11th. Visit https://www.mass.gov/info-details/drought-status for more information Mitigation actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Below normal to record low 7 day average streamflow levels for most stream gauges in southern New England 7-Day Streamflow Percentile Agricultural Impacts National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Most of MA ranging from PDSI between -1 and -1.9 highlighting longer term dryness in the state After a wet summer, RI continues to remain in the unusually moist range (1 to 1.9) indicating that longer term dryness has not settled in the state yet This product does not capture short-term dry trends and changes slowly from week to week Palmer Drought Severity Index Fire Hazard Impacts National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways KBDI = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation. KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity. KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively. KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Next 7 days: No significant precipitation forecast for southern New England through the first week of November 6-10 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures likely during the next 6 to 10 days Leaning below normal precipitation over the next 6 to 10 days Possible Impact Precipitation deficits and drought conditions may worsen with no substantial precipitation Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 05-09. 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Leaning above normal temperatures for the second week of November Leaning below normal precipitation for the second week of November Possible Impact Precipitation deficits and drought conditions may worsen with no substantial precipitation Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 7-13 Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Equal chances for above/below normal precipitation during mid to late November Possible Impact Low confidence in any drought improvement through late November Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Weeks 3-4 Precipitation Outlook. Valid November 09-22. NAO Status North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA NAO Status Headline Summary Text (NAO forecast to be in a positive phase tilting the odds toward warmer/drier weather for the eastern US) Large scale circulation pattern tilts the odds toward warmer temperatures and faster/progressive storm systems which limits precipitation potential. Image Caption: Daily 5km SST Anomaly map for the Pacific Ocean, valid April 9, 2023. The Nino3.4 region is highlighted within the red box. Seasonal Climate Outlook Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways Higher chances for above normal average temperatures for the Northeast this winter Equal chances for above/below normal precipitation this winter. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid 12 to 02 2024-2025. Drought Outlook National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Main Takeaways 1 month outlook suggests drought persistence across for northeastern MA but with eventual improvements per the 3 month drought outlook More Information National Weather Service Boston/Norton, MA Connecticut Connecticut Drought Information Center Massachusetts Massachusetts Drought Management Task Force Rhode Island Rhode Island Water Resources Board