Proposed Local Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning (TCV)
Example #1 - Major Hurricane Example
*** NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE ***
Below you can compare the wind information provided in the current Local Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning (TCV) text product with the proposed version which uses the “What, Where, When” format found in most other NWS products and includes explicit probabilistic forecast information to account for the uncertainty in the forecast, giving the user a heads up on the potential “worst case scenario” for their area. The text on the left below is the proposed future Local TCV. The current operational version is provided on the right. More information on this project can be found at this NWS page.
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Prototype Future Wind-Only Local TCV
Example #1 - Major Hurricane
FLZ165-272330-
/O.CON.KTBW.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Lee-
1116 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* WHAT...Winds from 58-73 MPH with higher gusts are likely, but there
is a 10% chance that winds will be greater than 110 MPH somewhere in
this area.
* WHERE...Coastal Lee County, Florida including the cities of:
- Sanibel
- Captiva
- Cape Coral
* WHEN...Early this evening until Thursday evening
* IMPACTS...Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. There
is the potential for catastrophic wind impacts damage to structures
accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Many roads impassable from
large debris. Widespread power and communications outages.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...See https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=tbw for information on other potentially dangerous weather conditions with this storm.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Remaining efforts to protect life and property should be urgently completed as
conditions will soon become unsafe. Evacuate if your area is under an evacuation order. If you haven't evacuated, remain in your home and ensure you can go to a safe room with no windows, preferably on the first floor, if winds cause significant damage. Take action now to prepare for power and communications outages. Ensure your devices are charged.
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Current Wind Information in the Local TCV
Example #1 - Major Hurricane
FLZ165-272330-
/O.CON.KTBW.HU.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Lee-
1116 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Cape Coral
- Captiva
- Sanibel
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 1 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 55-75 mph with gusts to 90 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early this evening
until Thursday evening
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
wind greater than 110 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for extreme wind of equivalent CAT 3 hurricane
force or higher.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be urgently completed. Prepare for catastrophic wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete
roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile
homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne
projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or
months.
- Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences
and roadway signs blown over.
- Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Widespread power and communications outages.
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