Various AMS/COMET Publications

Forecasting High Winds/Tornadogenesis

Forecasting Heavy Rainfall

COMET-RELATED PAPERS

Formal Publications

Informal Publications

EARLIER STUDIES

Informal Publications

Formal Publications

Supercell/Mesocyclone Evolution

Veritically Integrated Liquid (VIL)

Informal Publications

Formal Publications

Forecasting Winter Weather

Informal Publications

Formal Publications

Informal Publications

Formal Publications on Forecasting Damaging Wind/Tornado Events AMS Weather Forecasting:

Atkins, N.T., J.M. Arnott, R. W. Przybylinski, R.A. Wolf, and B.D. Ketcham, 2004: Vortex Structure and Evolution within Bow Echoes. Part 1: Single Doppler and Damage Analysis of the 29 June 1998 Derecho. Mon. Wea. Rev. 132, 2224-2242. Przybylinski, R.W., 1995: The Bow Echo: Observations, Numerical Simulations, and Severe Weather Detection Methods. Wea. Forecasting., 10, 203-218.

Informal COMET-related Publications (Forecasting High Wind Events)

Przybylinski, R.W., Y.J. Lin, G.K. Schmocker, and T.J. Shea, 1995: The use of real-time WSR-88D, Profiler, and conventional data sets in forecasting a northeastward moving Derecho over eastern Missouri and central Illinois. 14th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Dallas, TX. 335-342.

Przybylinski, R.W., Y.J. Lin, C.A. Doswell, G.K. Schmocker, T.J. Shea, T.W. Funk, J.D. Kirkpatrick, K.E. Darmofal, and Michael T. Shields, 1996: Storm Reflectivity and Mesocyclone Evolution Associated with the 15 April 1994 Derecho, Part 1: Storm Evolution over Missouri and Illinois. Preprints 18th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. San Francisco, 509 - 515.

Funk, T.W., K.E. Darmofal, J.D. Kirkpatrick, M.T. Shields, R.W. Przybylinski, Y.J. Lin, G.K. Schmocker, and T.J. Shea, 1996: Storm Reflectivity and Mesocyclone Evolution Associated with the 15 April 1994 Derecho, Part 2: Storm Structure and Evolution over Kentucky and Southern Indiana. Preprints 18th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. San Francisco, 516-520.

Schmocker, G.K., R.W. Przybylinski, Y.J. Lin, 1996: Forecasting the Initial Onset of Damaging Downburst Winds Associated with a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) Using the Mid-Altitude Radial Convergence (MARC) Signature. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting., Norfolk, 306-311.

Schmocker, G.K., R.W. Przybylinski, Y.J. Lin, 1998: A Doppler Radar Analysis of the 25 May 1996 Squall Line Event Across East Central Missouri and Southwestern Illinois. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting., Phoenix, AZ.

Heinlein, M.F. Jr., R.W. Przybylinski, Y.J. Lin, 1998: A WSR-88D Doppler Radar Study of an Embedded Bowecho Event on 22 September 1993 over East Central Missouri. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., Minneapolis, MN, 522-525.

Kagol, J.M., R.W. Przybylinski, Y.J. Lin, 1998: The 1 July 1997 Squall Line- Supercell Event over Central Minnesota: A Survey of Complex Reflectivity Structures and Mesocyclone Evolution. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., Minneapolis, MN, 526-529.

O'Sullivan, J.M, R.W. Przybylinski, Y.J. Lin, 1998: The 27 May 1996 Severe Storm Event over Central and Eastern Missouri: A Challenge in Warning for the Initial Onset of Damaging Winds and Non-Supercell Tornadoes. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., Minneapolis, MN, 518-521. Przybylinski, R.W., G.K. Schmocker, and Y.J. Lin, 2000: A Study of Storm and Vortex Morphology During the 'Intensifying Stage' of Severe Wind Mesoscale Convective Systems. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., Orlando, FL, 173-176. Schmocker, G.K., R.W. Przybylinski, and E.N. Rasmussen, 2000: The Severe Bow Echo Event of 14 June 1998 over the Mid-Mississippi Valley Region: A Case of Vortex Development Near the Intersection of a Pre-existing Boundary and a Convective Line. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., Orlando, FL, 169-172.

Earlier Studies: Informal Publications on Forecasting Damaging Wind / Tornado Events

Przybylinski, R.W. and W.J. Gery, 1983: The Reliability of the Bow Echo as an Important Severe Weather Signature, 13th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Tulsa, 270-273.

Przybylinski, R.W. and D.M. DeCaire, 1985: Radar Signatures Associated with the Derecho, One Type of a Mesoscale Convective System, 14th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Indianapolis, 228-231.

Przybylinski, R.W. 1987: Radar Signatures Associated with the 10 March, 1986 Tornado Outbreak over Central Indiana. 15th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Baltimore, 253-256.

Lusky, G.R., and R.W. Przybylinski, 1990: Some Early Observations Using NEXRAD During Convective High Wind Events. 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. Kananaskis Park, Alta. 179-184.

Przybylinski, R.W., and G.K. Schmocker, 1993: The evolution of a widespread convective wind storm event over central and eastern Missouri. 13th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Vienna, VA

Przybylinski, R.W., G.K. Schmocker, and T.J. Shea, 1993: Doppler radar observations of a bowing convective line segment associated with a long track severe windstorm. 17th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. St. Louis, 582-587.

Formal COMET-related Publications (Forecasting Heavy Rainfall Events)

Moore, J.T., F.H. Glass, C.E. Graves, S.M. Rochette, and M.J. Singer, 2003: The Environment of Warm Season Elevated Thunderstorms Associated with Heavy Rainfall over the Central United States. Wea Forecasting, 18, 861-878.

Informal COMET-related Publications (Forecasting Heavy Rainfall Events)

Moore, J.T., S.M. Rochette, F.H. Glass, D.L. Ferry, and P.S. Market, 1996: Elevated Thunderstorms Associated with Heavy Rainfall in the Midwest. Preprints 18th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., San Francisco, 772-776.

Moore J.T., C.H. Pappas and F.H. Glass, 1993: Propagation characteristics of mesoscale convective systems. 17th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. St. Louis, 538-541.

Glass F.H., D.L. Ferry, J.T. Moore, and S.M. Nolan, 1995: Characteristics of heavy convective rainfall events across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region during the warm season: Meteorological conditions and conceptual model. 14th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Dallas, TX.

Considine, S.R., J.T. Moore, F.H. Glass, 1998: A Synoptic Climatology of Significant Rainfall Events Over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN. 544-547.

Glass, F.H., 1998: A Climatology of Widespread Heavy Rainfall Events Across Missouri. 19th Conference on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN. 540-543. Glass, F.H., J.P. Gagan, and J.T. Moore, 2001: The Extreme East-Central Missouri Flash Flood of 6-7 May 2000. Preprints, 1st Preciptation Extremes Conf. 81st AMS Annual Meetings, Albuquerque NM.

Earlier Studies: Formal Publications on Forecasting Heavy Rainfall Events

Earlier Studies: Informal Publications on Forecasting Heavy Rainfall Events

Corfidi, S.F., N.W. Junker, F.H. Glass, 1990: The Louisiana/Mississippi Flash Flood and Severe Weather Outbreak of 15-16 November 1987. 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alta. 627-633.

Glass, F.H. and R.H. Grumm, 1990: The Meso and Synoptic-Scale Aspects of the 5-6 May 1989 Mid-Atlantic Flash Flood and Severe Weather Outbreak. 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alta. 643-647.

Publications on the Topic of Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL)

Silverman, A.M. , D.H. Kitzmiller, R.W. Przybylinshi, 1996: Statistical Evaluation of Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL) and Environmental Indicies as Severe Weather Predictors. Preprints, 15th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. , Norfolk, 328-331.

Silverman, A.M., R.W. Przybylinski and D.H. Kitzmiller, 1998: Derived WSR-88D Products and Environmental Indicies as Severe Weather Predictors-A Statistical Evaluation. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN. 744-747.

Formal Publications on the Topic of Supercell / Mesocyclone Evolution

Geophysical Monographs - American Geophysical Union (1993)

Hagemeyer, B.C. and G.K. Schmocker,1993: Characteristics of East Central Florida Tornado Environments. Geophys. Monogr., 79, Amer. Geophys. Union. 625-632.

Korotky, W., R.W. Przybylinski, J.A. Hart, 1993: The Plainfield, Illinois Tornado of August 28, 1990: The Evolution of Synoptic and Mesoscale Environments. Geophys. Monogr.,79, Amer. Geophys. Union. 611-624.

Przybylinski, R.W., J.T. Snow, E.M. Agee, J.T. Curran, 1993: The Use of Volumetric Radar Data to Identify Supercells: A Case Study of June 2, 1990. Geophys. Monogr., 79, Amer. Geophys. Union. 241-250.

Informal Publications on the Topic of Supercell/Mesocyclone Evolution

Przybylinski, R.W. 1989: The Raleigh Tornado - 28 November 1988: A Radar Overview. 12th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Monterey, 186-191.

Doswell, C.A. III, A.R. Moller, R.W. Przybylinski, 1990: A Unified Set of Conceptual Models for Variations on the Supercell Theme. 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alta. 40-45.

Moller, A.R., C.A. Doswell, and R.W. Przybylinski, 1990: High-Precipitation Supercells: A Conceptual Model and Documentation. 1990: 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alta. 52-57.

Przybylinski, R.W., S. Runnels, P. Spoden, and S. Summy, 1990: The Allendale Illinois Tornado - January 7, 1989. One type of an High-Precipitation Supercell. 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. Kananaskis Park, Alta. 516-521.

Glass, F.H., 1993: The role of ageostrophic motions associated with an upper tropospheric jet streak on the pre-storm environment. 17th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. St. Louis, 112-117.

Glass, F.H. and S.C. Truett, 1993: Observations of a splitting severe thunderstorm exhibiting both supercellular and multicellular traits. 17th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. St. Louis, 224-228.

Przybylinski, R.W., T.J. Shea, D.L. Ferry, E.H. Goetsch, R.R. Czys and N.E. Wescott, 1993: Doppler radar observations of High-Precipitation (HP) Supercells over the Mid-Mississippi Valley region. 17th Conf. on Severe Local Storms. St. Louis, 158-163.

Wolf, R., R.W. Przybylinski, P. Berg, 1996: Observations of a Merging Bowing Segment and Supercell. Preprints, 18th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., San Francisco, 740-745.

Glass, F.H., and R.W. Przybylinski, 1998: Rapid Evolution of a Tornadic High-Precipitation (HP) Supercell and Subsequent Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis. 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms., Minneapolis, MN. 200-205. Britt, M.F. and F.H. Glass, 2000: The Tornado Climatology of the St. Louis Weather Forecast Office County Warning Area. 20th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL. 88-91.

Glass. F.H., and M.F. Britt, 2000: Close Range WSR-88D Observations of Several Tornadic Storms. 20th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL. 190-193.

Formal Publications in Forecasting Winter Weather Events

Shea, T.J., T. Schroeder, R.W. Przybylinski, J.T. Moore, and P.S. Market, 1995: The March 8-9, 1994 Winter Storm over Southern Missouri: A Challenging Operational Forecasting Problem4th National Winter Weather Workshop, NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS CR-112 Kansas City, MO, pp. 18-1 - 18-21.

Informal Publications in Forecasting Winter Weather Events

Shea, T.J. and R.W. Przybylinski, 1993: Assessing Vertical Motion Fields in a Winter Storm using PC-GRIDDS. 13th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Vienna, VA

Shea, T.J. and R.W. Przybylinski, 1995: Forecasting the northern extent of significant snowfall in a major winter storm: An operational forecasting problem. 14th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Dallas, TX.