The Storm Prediction Center has included a wide area of Arizona in Marginal Risk of severe storms for this afternoon and evening. Main concern will be the potential for damaging winds near 60 mph. Some areas could experience dense blowing dust as a result of enhanced outflows.
A Flood Watch has been issued for south-central Arizona for Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. Widespread 0.50"-1.00" are expected with locally higher amounts 2" or greater with storms. Rainfall rates may reach 2-3"/hr with some of the strongest cells.
A weather disturbance will act to increase the coverage of thunderstorms across the lower deserts later this week. Better moisture levels will overspread the region, and thunderstorm hazards are likely to transition from severe winds & dust to primarily flash flooding. Shower/storm activity is also likely to linger into the overnight hours and possibly even the morning on at least one of these days.
A weather disturbance will support increasing coverage of storms across the state, especially through Thursday when a moist environment will allow for efficient, heavy rainfall with thunderstorms. As such, the probabilities for excessive rainfall leading to rapid onset flooding will increase. Friday appears more uncertain as the activity the day prior may influence conditions, but the risk of flooding rainfall remains for now.
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