NWS Forecast Office Phoenix, AZ

There will be chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight and Wednesday across south-central AZ before drier air moves in heading into Thursday that will push rain chances mostly to the AZ high terrain. Chances peak Wednesday at 50-80% chance. Flash flooding will be the primary threat, but gusty winds leading to localized blowing dust will also be a hazard.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely across Central AZ through Wednesday evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of efficient, heavy rain rates of upwards of 1-2" per hour. Multiple storms tracking over the same spot poses the greatest threat for flash flooding. In the rainfall probabilities above, you'll notice good odds for 1"+ across a rather broad area, and then a much more focused area mostly E/NE of Phoenix with 10-50% probabilities for 2"+ totals. However, this does not mean that everyone with chances for 1-2"+ totals will receive this much rain, and some areas may miss out entirely or only receive a few tenths of an inch. This is why we have also included probabilities of receiving less than 0.5"; to show that not all areas will see heavy rainfall, and odds of rainfall less than 0.5" increase towards Southwest AZ.

Storms over the next couple days will be capable of producing flash flooding, driven by high rainfall rates. The Weather Prediction Center has introduced a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall (at least 40% chance of flash flooding within 25 miles of a point).

Temperatures will cool through the middle of the week before warming again by the weekend. Additionally showers and thunderstorms will be likely starting tonight and with the best chances starting Wednesday morning, as a Flood Watch is in effect for Maricopa, Pinal, and Gila Counties.