NWS Forecast Office Phoenix, AZ

There is increasing confidence as we head into this evening and through the overnight period of a complex of showers and thunderstorms materializing between the Phoenix metro and Gila County. Activity will most likely increase in coverage after 7-8 pm MST. There is the potential for several hours of heavy rainfall with multiple inches of rain likely, resulting in flash flooding. There is still some uncertainty of where exactly this complex will set up. Rainfall activity will likely linger through Friday morning, but intensity should be mostly light to locally moderate. Best timing for the heaviest rainfall will be between 9 PM and 5 AM MST.

A weather disturbance over Western TX and NM will allow for better coverage of thunderstorms today across the region and especially by tonight for the South-Central AZ lower deserts. Abundant moisture will overspread the region, and thunderstorm hazards are expected to transition from severe winds & dust to primarily flash flooding. Shower/storm activity is likely to peak during the evening and overnight hours and quite possibly into Friday morning.

A Flood Watch is in effect for Maricopa County, Northwest Pinal County and Southern Gila County from 2 PM MST this afternoon through 5 AM MST Friday morning. Widespread 0.50"-1.00" are expected with locally higher amounts 2" or greater with storms. Rainfall rates may reach 2-3"/hr with some of the strongest cells.

Near to above normal temperatures today will drop below normal areawide tomorrow and well below normal in some places across South-Central AZ due to anticipated widespread rainfall and cloud cover. Gradual warming over the weekend into early next week is expected.