Dangerous Cold Weather for Most of the Country; Rare Winter Storm for the South; Fire Weather Concerns for Southern California

Arctic air will filter south and east through early this week. As this cold air moves across the South, a rare winter storm is forecast to develop from Texas, Gulf Coast States into the Southeast through early this week. Several new daily record low temperatures are expected, including new record-low maximum temperatures. For Southern California, fire weather concerns increase this week. Read More >

November 5, 2007
The Mini-Supercell / Marginal Hail Event of November 5, 2007

Overview: A quick-moving cold front moved across the ILN CWA during the afternoon of 11/5/07. A cool late-autumn airmass was in place ahead of the front (temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s), which inhibited any surface-based instability. However, very weak elevated instability existed above the stable boundary layer (MUCAPE <500 J/Kg lifted from 800 hPa). In addition, shear ahead of the front was high, with 0-6 km shear around 60 kt, and 0-3 km helicities ranging from 250-500 m²/s².
As the front entered ILN's CWA, numerous thunderstorms developed and quickly took the form of elevated mini-supercells. The cores of the storms were small and were generally confined to below 15,000 feet, and none of them extended above the -20 °C level. However, many of the storms exhibited weak midlevel rotation, and almost all storms with rotation ended up producing severe hail. The high 0-3 km helicity favored midlevel mesocyclones, which led to significantly stronger dynamically-induced updrafts. The air mass in place was cool and freezing levels were low, so these meso-induced updrafts grew within the hail-growth zone of -10 to -30 °C, and large hail was the result. Because of the low freezing levels, hail was able to make it to the surface without much melting.