NWS Wilmington, NC

Weather Forecast Office

Major Coastal Storm of November 2019

Infrared satellite loop of the major coastal storm of November 16-17, 2019

On Friday, November 15, 2019 low pressure developed off the Georgia coast along a stalled front. The low strengthened while moving slowly northeastward over the next 24 hours as a strong upper level disturbance approached from the west. Widespread rain developed across the eastern halves of South and North Carolina as Atlantic moisture was transported across the stalled front. Rainfall amounts of one to one and one-half inches were recorded along with chilly daytime temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s.

By Saturday, November 16, the upper level disturbance and the surface cyclone became vertically stacked and stalled while located a couple hundred miles off the South Carolina coast. While never classified as a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone, heat and moisture from the Gulf Stream current helped develop persistent thunderstorms near and north of the storm's center. This convection likely played a role in helping strengthen the storm further. By Saturday evening the barometric pressure in the offshore storm was down to around 1000 millbars (29.53 in. Hg) which is roughly what one would expect to find in the center of a moderate tropical storm.

Strong wind gusts, at times approaching hurricane force, occurred off the Carolina coastline Saturday into early Sunday. The National Weather Service office in Wilmington issued a Storm Warning for the local North Carolina coastal waters, the first time since February 2016 that winds this strong had occurred with a non-tropical low pressure system. Winds were slightly weaker along the South Carolina coast where a Gale Warning was issued.

This storm was a Nor'easter -- a non-tropical low pressure system remaining offshore that produces strong northeast winds along the coastline. While Nor'easters are not uncommon during the fall, winter, and early spring, this was a particularly strong one. Unlike tropical storms and hurricanes, Nor'easters feed off temperature differences between cold and warm airmasses. This is why they are most common during the cooler portion of the year.

Winds

URMA-analyzed wind gusts across the Southeastern U.S. coast Saturday into Sunday. Wind gusts probably approached hurricane force offshore during this major coastal storm event.

URMA-analyzed wind gusts across the Southeastern U.S. coast Saturday into Sunday. Winds approached hurricane force offshore during this major coastal storm event.

Peak wind gusts recorded November 16-17 across northeastern South Carolina, southeastern North Carolina, and the nearby Atlantic Ocean.

Frying Pan Shoals Buoy	69 mph	9:10 PM	Nov 16
Wrightsville Beach CORMP Offshore Buoy	63 mph	11:08 PM	Nov 16
Wrightsville Beach, NC-Johnnie Mercer Pier	59 mph	4:18 PM	Nov 16
Wrightsville Beach CORMP Nearshore Buoy	56 mph	12:08 AM	Nov 17
Surf City, NC Bridge (NCEM)	55 mph	2:55 PM	Nov 16
Sunset Beach, NC	53 mph	7:38 PM	Nov 16
Federal Point, NC (Weatherflow)	51 mph	4:56 PM	Nov 16
Sunset Beach, NC CORMP Nearshore Buoy	51 mph	12:08 AM	Nov 17
Winyah Bay Range A Rear Light, SC (Weatherflow)	51 mph	10:19 AM	Nov 16
Southport, NC-Cape Fear River Pilots Office	51 mph	2:59 AM	Nov 16
Oak Island, NC (Weatherflow)	49 mph	5:20 PM	Nov 16
Little River, SC	49 mph	11:19 PM	Nov 16
Burgaw, NC-Edgewood Neighborhood	49 mph	6:01 PM	Nov 16
Myrtle Beach, SC-Lake Arrowhead (Weatherflow)	48 mph	4:22 PM	Nov 16
Wilmington, NC (Airport)	47 mph	2:03 PM	Nov 16
North Myrtle Beach, SC (Airport)	46 mph	5:43 PM	Nov 16
Topsail Beach, NC-Fire Department	46 mph	6:33 PM	Nov 16
Marion, SC (Airport)	45 mph	7:55 PM	Nov 16
Holly Shelter Gameland, NC	44 mph	5:18 PM	Nov 16
Caswell Beach, NC	44 mph	5:00 PM	Nov 16
Myrtle Beach, SC-Briarcliffe Acres	44 mph	4:31 PM	Nov 16
Murrells Inlet, SC (Weatherflow)	42 mph	6:11 PM	Nov 16
Southport, NC (Airport)	40 mph	6:15 PM	Nov 16
Myrtle Beach, SC-International Airport	40 mph	8:15 PM	Nov 16
Myrtle Beach-2nd Avenue Pier	40 mph	3:15 PM	Nov 16
Myrtle Beach-Apache Pier	40 mph	10:15 AM	Nov 17

Tides, Coastal Flooding, and Beach Erosion

Persistent strong winds on the west side of the low piled up water along the coast and produced larger than normal high tides during the storm event. Tidal anomalies reached 1 to 2 feet, creating coastal flooding during high tides Saturday into Sunday. Beach erosion occurred on many South and North Carolina beaches due to large crashing waves and above-normal water levels.

Photos provided by Surf City Emergency Management show the ocean scouring sand from beneath homes along North Shore Drive on Sunday November 17, 2019.

WOW! Severe dune erosion is being reported at the south end of Topsail Beach, North Carolina. The following pictures were taken today around access 17. PC: Debbie LaMay
Posted by Topsail Online Gazette on Sunday, November 17, 2019

First light in Surf City, North Carolina, as the nor'easter continues its way up the coast this morning. The surf is...
Posted by Topsail Online Gazette on Sunday, November 17, 2019

Wave action from our departing #noreaster carved out a good two feet of beach at Windy Hill in North Myrtle Beach. More in some places, less in others. Watch your step! Photo via Patrick Richards. #scwx #ncwx pic.twitter.com/3v4fyEVysO
— Ed Piotrowski (@EdPiotrowski) November 17, 2019

A little siding blowing loose in the winds in Cherry Grove. #SCwx pic.twitter.com/ylW8lrZMxB
— Jamie Arnold WMBF (@jamiearnoldWMBF) November 16, 2019

Graph of astronomical versus observed water levels at Wrightsville Beach, NC from November 15 through 18, 2019. Tides ran persistently 1 to 2 feet above normal throughout the event.

Graph of astronomical (blue) versus observed (red) water levels at Wrightsville Beach, NC from November 15 through 18, 2019. Tides ran persistently 1 to 2 feet above normal throughout the event, creating two periods of coastal flooding during high tides on November 16 and 17.

Wave Heights

Strong winds offshore built wave heights to 15 to 20 feet at the Frying Pan Shoals Tower. Even nearshore, wave heights of 6 to 10 feet became dangerous for small vessels. The highest measured wave height at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy during this storm was 17 feet on Saturday night. To help put this in comparison, the highest wave height ever measured at this location was 25 feet during Hurricane Florence in 2018.

Wave heights in our forecast for 1 PM on Sunday, November 17. These values were very near the peak measured wave heights for the entire storm event.

Wave heights in our forecast for 1 PM on Sunday, November 17. These values were very near the peak measured wave heights for the entire event.

Wave heights measured at the Frying Pan Shoals NOAA buoy (41013) during the storm event. Peak significant wave height was 17 feet.

Wave heights measured at the Frying Pan Shoals NOAA buoy (41013) during the storm. Peak significant wave height was 17 feet.

Rainfall

MRMS rainfall estimate for November 15-17, 2019. While the heaviest rainfall fell well offshore, two to three inch amounts were common across southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina

MRMS rainfall estimate for November 15-17, 2019. While the heaviest rainfall fell well offshore, one to three inch amounts were common across southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina. Wilmington radar data is blocked by trees to the southwest, leading to well-below actual rainfall shown along the South Carolina coastline.

Gauge measured rainfall-totals across southeastern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina. Data is from a variety of sources including airports, NWS cooperative observers, and volunteer CoCoRaHS observers.

Location	Rainfall	Location	Rainfall
3.5 miles NE Tabor City, NC	4.59"	Kingstree, SC	3.63"
Galivants Ferry, SC	3.42"	7 miles SE Wilmington, NC	3.26"
Mullins, SC	2.95"	5.7 miles WSW Leland, NC	2.63"
6.2 miles SSE Wilmington, NC	2.63"	Whiteville, NC (RAWS station)	2.48"
Masonboro Island, NC	2.48"	1.0 mile N Carolina Beach, NC	2.42"
Marion, SC (RAWS station)	2.41"	Sunny Point, NC (RAWS station)	2.29"
Crabtree Swamp, SC	2.10"	6.1 miles NW Whiteville, NC	2.09"
7.9 miles NW Kingstree, SC	2.07"	6.2 miles NW Elizabethtown, NC	2.05"
5.1 miles NNW Coward, SC	2.03"	0.3 miles NE Burgaw, NC	2.01"
Wilmington, NC Airport	1.97"	2.8 miles WSW Surf City, NC	1.96"
Darlington, SC	1.96"	Turnbull Creek, NC (RAWS station)	1.96"
Holly Shelter Gameland, NC (RAWS)	1.92"	7.4 miles W Scranton, SC	1.83"
5.9 miles W Southport, NC	1.77"	0.3 miles SSW Murrells Inlet, SC	1.74"
7.8 miles SW Bolivia, NC	1.72"	Myrtle Beach, SC	1.71"
Green Swamp, NC (RAWS station)	1.62"	North Myrtle Beach, SC Airport	1.55"
5.1 miles W Florence, SC	1.54"	Southport, NC Airport	1.52"
Georgetown, SC Airport	1.48"	Longwood, NC	1.39"
9.2 miles WSW Myrtle Beach, SC	1.38"	Florence, SC Airport	1.37"
5.3 miles NNE Georgetown, SC	1.31"	1.9 miles NNW Calabash, NC	1.30"
2.4 miles ENE Myrtle Beach, SC	1.28"	3.8 miles NW Dillon, SC	1.25"
2.6 miles ESE Lumberton, NC	1.24"	Quinby, SC	1.13"
1.6 miles WNW Clio, SC	1.09"	Myrtle Beach, SC Airport	1.01"
Lumberton, NC (RAWS station)	0.97"	Darlington, SC Airport	0.93"

Page Author: Tim Armstrong
Page Created: November 17, 2019
Last Updated: November 18, 2019