Scattered Severe Thunderstorms Across the Northern Plains; Fire Weather Concerns in the Western U.S.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern North Dakota, as well as far northwest Minnesota Saturday (Slight Risk level 2 of 5). Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist through the weekend across the Western U.S. Isolated dry thunderstorms could lead to new fire starts over portions of the northern Rockies. Read More >

Forecast Models

Meteorology uses pressure as the vertical coordinate and not height. This works out better for thermodynamic computations that are done on a regular basis. Pressure decreases in the atmosphere exponentially as height increases reaching zero pressure in space. The standard unit of pressure is millibars (mb or hectopascals-hPa) of which sea level is around 1013 mb. Standard pressure levels and approximate heights:

Pressure	Approximate Height		Approximate Temp
Sea level	0 m	0 ft	15^oC	59^oF
1000 mb	100 m	300 ft	15^oC	59^oF
850 mb	1,500 m	5,000 ft	5^oC	41^oF
700 mb	3,000 m	10,000 ft	-5^oC	23^oF
500 mb	5,000 m	18,000 ft	-20^oC	-4^oF
300 mb	9,000 m	30,000 ft	-45^oC	-49^oF
200 mb	12,000 m	40,000 ft	-55^oC	-67^oF
100 mb	16,000 m	53,000 ft	-56^oC	-69^oF

The the primary difference between the models is their resolution or grid boxes. The smaller the grid box, the higher the resolution so little nuances in the atmosphere are more easily identified. Below are some of the models used by the National Weather Service.

Model Data Servers

Environmental Modeling Center
U.S. Navy
UCAR
Institute of Global Environment and Society
The Ohio State University
University of Michigan
University of Wisconsin
Texas A & M
University of Wyoming
University of Utah
UCAR MM5 model
Navy's NOGAPS model
Canadian Global Spectral model
United Kingdom UKMET model
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ECMWF model
Daily Maps

NAM Forecast Model

This table contains contour plots of data from the NAM forecast model. This model gives forecast information out to 84 hours and are updated once every 6 hours at roughly 02:00 PST and 08:00 PST.

NAM MOS Numerical Guidance:

GFS (Global Forecast System) Forecast Model

This is a global model run by NCEP whereas the NAM is a regional model. As a result, the grids from this model are somewhat coarser than the grids from those models and lack some products. This model replaced the AVN and MRF models and gives forecast information out to 384 hours, and are updated once every 6 hours by roughly 04:00 and 10:00 PST.

GFS Short Range Numerical Guidance:

GFS Medium Range Numerical Guidance:

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