Overview
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Tropical system Cristobal, that originated in the Gulf of Mexico, quickly moved northward during a two day period from 7pm Monday June 8 through 7 am Wednesday June 10. Although the system weakened to a tropical depression as it moved onshore over the southern Mississippi Valley, it still brought copious amounts of moisture into the western Great Lakes region late Tuesday afternoon. The system moved quickly over the region and by 7am Wednesday the center of the circulation was located over southern Lake Superior, well on its way out of the area. Primary impacts associated with the remnants of Cristobal were heavy rainfall and strong winds. Twenty-four hour storm total rainfall amounts, from Tuesday to 7 am Wednesday ranged from less than an inch over eastern Wisconsin to locally 4-5 inches over southeast Minnesota and SW Wisconsin (see precipitation map below). Flooding was reported over many areas across NE Iowa, SE Minnesota and SW Wisconsin. Areas further east across central and eastern Wisconsin only minor flooding was noted. In addition, this system had record low pressure for the month of June, which allowed for widespread wind gusts in the range of 30-50 mph. The impacts from Cristobal could have been far worse. Had the system been slower in crossing the region, the ample moisture available would have created much more widespread significant flooding concerns. Fortunately, Cristobal was relatively fast moving, which prevented the overall rainfall totals (and associated impacts) from being much higher across the Western Great Lakes region. For details, see the tabs below.
Storm Total Rainfall from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. |
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Environment:
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Image:GOES-16 Water Vapor Given its tropical origins, it should not be surprising that Cristobal carried along with it copious and deep moisture. This GOES-16 Water Vapor animation illustrates this tropical connection. Note the band of light gray colors extending from the southeast United States northwest to the upper Midwest. This feature in water vapor imagery is sometimes is referred to as a tropical moisture plume (tropical connection). It represents very deep moisture that was available to Cristobal as it moved northward into the western Great Lakes region. |
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Image – blended model ensemble forecast of precipitable water (PW). These consecutive ensemble model forecasts are all valid for the same time (7 pm Tuesday June 9, 2020). Even from a climatological perspective for early June, the moisture this system carried with it was extreme! The amount of moisture in the atmosphere that is available for a system can be measured by its Precipitable Water content (PW). Note the bright cyan colors that appear over Wisconsin as early as 48 hours before the event began to impact the state. This indicates that the model guidance was forecasting available moisture (PW) to be the highest ever observed for early June in the western Great Lakes region! Analysis such as these are an invaluable to forecasters, as it helps to put the model forecasts into a climatological perspective; and aid in gauging the potential for, and abnormality of, an extreme weather event. |
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Image - Storm Prediction Center annual precipitable water content soundings
In the image to the left, in red are the maximum observed precipitable water contents, in black is the average (normal), and in blue are the minimum observed. Plotted with the black dot is the observed PW value from the 7 PM June 10th upper air sounding observation. Note that the measured PW value of 2.2 inches is the highest ever observed for this time in early June in Green Bay! |
Storm Track:
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Image – National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track from Monday June 8th, 2020.
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Image - Observed track of the low pressure system. Note how well the NHC forecast compared to the actual observed track! This is only the third time since 1900 that the remnants of a tropical system tracked directly across the state of Wisconsin. It is also interesting to note that not only did Cristobal bring record moisture to Wisconsin, but also, record surface low pressure! In fact, the observed surface pressure recorded at Green Bay, Wisconsin fell to 986 mb (29.12 in Hg) early Wednesday morning, which is a new low pressure record for the month of June! |
Radar & Rainfall Reports:
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Image - Composite radar analysis of 1 hourly estimated rainfall. The green colors indicate where the heaviest rain was falling (1-2 inches/hour) with respect to the center of Cristobal. Note that the heaviest rain fell generally to the west and northwest of the storm track over parts of far northeast Iowa, far southeast Minnesota, and from southwest to north-central Wisconsin. |
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Image – Radar Composite Animation. A close-up animation of the radar data as the storm impacted Wisconsin between 4 pm Tuesday and 4 am Wednesday.
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Public Information Statement National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1116 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2020 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS >0.70 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 11 AM... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Wisconsin... ...Brown County... Denmark WWTP 0.74 in 0800 AM 06/10 COOP ...Door County... 1.9 NW Carlsville 0.98 in 0630 AM 06/10 UCOOP Fish Creek 1 E WWTP 0.85 in 0430 AM 06/10 UCOOP Potawatomi State Park 4 ESE 0.74 in 1059 AM 06/10 AWS ...Florence County... Florence 1.60 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP Spread Eagle 1 NW 0.95 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS ...Forest County... Argonne 1.5 NW 2.30 in 0707 AM 06/10 COOP Wabeno 2 NNW 1.87 in 1001 AM 06/10 RAWS Crandon 1.39 in 1055 AM 06/10 CWOP ...Kewaunee County... Casco 0.4 NNW 0.97 in 0530 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Kewaunee 0.95 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP ...Langlade County... White Lake 1.4 SE 2.27 in 0800 AM 06/10 COOP Summit Lake 1.90 in 0500 AM 06/10 COOP Antigo 1 SSW 1.72 in 0800 AM 06/10 COOP Antigo 2 ENE 1.68 in 1005 AM 06/10 RAWS ...Lincoln County... Merrill 7 W 2.97 in 0600 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Merrill Airport 2.30 in 1035 AM 06/10 AWOS 0.7 N Bradley 2.30 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP Bradley 1.0 NE 2.30 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP 2.7 NE Spirit Falls 2.11 in 0930 AM 06/10 UCOOP ...Manitowoc County... Shoto 1 NW 1.30 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Reedsville 1.04 in 1045 AM 06/10 CWOP Manitowoc Airport 1.02 in 0956 AM 06/10 AWOS Mishicot 0.1 NNW 1.00 in 0800 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Two Rivers 4.1 WNW 0.99 in 0645 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Manitowoc 0.85 in 1053 AM 06/10 CWOP Two Rivers 0.83 in 0715 AM 06/10 COOP ...Marathon County... Mosinee 2 W 2.63 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Stratford 6.4 NW 2.17 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Mosinee 2.12 in 1050 AM 06/10 CWOP Knowlton 2.09 in 1050 AM 06/10 CWOP Dancy 1 NNW 2.09 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Wausau 2.07 in 1052 AM 06/10 CWOP Wausau 2.2 NE 2.06 in 0530 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Wausau Airport 1.98 in 0954 AM 06/10 ASOS Wausau 1.98 in 0700 AM 06/10 UCOOP Moon 1 E 1.95 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP Evergreen 1.5 WSW 1.92 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Spencer - Wwtp 1.90 in 0730 AM 06/10 UCOOP Weston 1 NE 1.80 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Evergreen 1 E 1.73 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS ...Marinette County... Athelstane 6 SW 1.23 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP Athelstane 1.6 E 1.13 in 0600 AM 06/10 UCOOP Quinnesec 1 S 1.00 in 1059 AM 06/10 AWS 1.6 NW Wausaukee 0.90 in 0800 AM 06/10 COOP Wausaukee 2 NW 0.85 in 1005 AM 06/10 RAWS ...Menominee County... Keshena 2 WNW 1.40 in 1005 AM 06/10 RAWS Keshena 4 NE 0.93 in 1100 AM 06/10 AWS ...Oconto County... Townsend 1.7 NNW 2.10 in 0600 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Mountain 1.73 in 1053 AM 06/10 CWOP Lakewood 1.64 in 1033 AM 06/10 CWOP Mountain 0.9 E 1.45 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Breed 5 NE 1.42 in 1003 AM 06/10 RAWS Suring 1.13 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP ...Oneida County... Minocqua 6.0 W 3.15 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Minocqua 3.04 in 0630 AM 06/10 COOP Mc Naughton 3 SSE 2.85 in 0600 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Rhinelander 5 N 2.79 in 0830 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Hazelhurst 2.1 SSE 2.78 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Rhinelander 4 NE 2.75 in 0600 AM 06/10 COOP Arbor Vitae - Woodruff 2 S 2.75 in 1010 AM 06/10 RAWS Bradley 2 NNW 2.65 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Rhinelander Airport 2.55 in 1053 AM 06/10 ASOS Tomahawk 3 W 2.53 in 1010 AM 06/10 RAWS Bradley 2 NNW 2.29 in 1053 AM 06/10 CWOP ...Outagamie County... New London 4.1 N 1.42 in 0600 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Shiocton 0.6 NW 1.10 in 0730 AM 06/10 COOP Hortonville 3.3 WSW 1.01 in 0902 AM 06/10 COCORAHS New London 2 SE 0.98 in 0630 AM 06/10 COOP Black Creek 3 NW 0.97 in 0600 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Greenville 0.92 in 1057 AM 06/10 CWOP Appleton 0.83 in 1007 AM 06/10 RAWS Seymour 0.77 in 1045 AM 06/10 CWOP Appleton 2.2 NW 0.77 in 0415 AM 06/10 COCORAHS ...Portage County... Almond 5 NE 1.88 in 0800 AM 06/10 UCOOP Almond 6.7 ENE 1.77 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Amherst 3 SE 1.69 in 0700 AM 06/10 UCOOP Plover 1.50 in 1047 AM 06/10 CWOP Stevens Point 1.49 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP Rosholt 1.48 in 0720 AM 06/10 COOP Rudolph 1 NNE 1.44 in 0500 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Plover 1.8 W 1.37 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS ...Shawano County... Split Rock 1 NNW 2.08 in 0800 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Stockbridge-Munsee Reservati 1.77 in 0830 AM 06/10 COOP Bowler 1 WNW 1.59 in 1100 AM 06/10 AWS Pella 3 SE 1.04 in 0530 AM 06/10 UCOOP Shawano 2 SSW 0.93 in 0800 AM 06/10 COOP Bonduel 3.3 NW 0.78 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS ...Vilas County... St Germain 0.6 NW 3.02 in 0600 AM 06/10 COOP Eagle River - South 2.93 in 0659 AM 06/10 UCOOP 0.6 S Manitowish Waters 2.90 in 0830 AM 06/10 COOP Phelps 2 SW 2.79 in 1002 AM 06/10 RAWS Boulder Junction 1.4 NE 2.65 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Winchester 2.58 in 1051 AM 06/10 CWOP Boulder Junction 9 ENE 2.57 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Arbor Vitae Airport 2.47 in 1035 AM 06/10 AWOS 4.2 N Phelps 2.12 in 0841 AM 06/10 COOP Manitowish Waters Airport 2.09 in 1035 AM 06/10 AWOS Land O Lakes 1.79 in 1035 AM 06/10 AWOS ...Waupaca County... Ogdensburg 2 E 1.56 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Waupaca 5.7 WSW 1.49 in 0730 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Waupaca 1.32 in 1031 AM 06/10 CWOP Clintonville 0.9 N 1.28 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP New London - WWTP 1.08 in 0700 AM 06/10 UCOOP 3.8 NE Lind Center 1.05 in 0800 AM 06/10 HADS Clintonville Airport 0.96 in 1035 AM 06/10 AWOS ...Waushara County... Almond 4.7 SE 1.66 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Wild Rose 0.5 E 1.26 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Coloma 1.20 in 1054 AM 06/10 CWOP Wautoma 5.5 NE 0.81 in 0852 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Wautoma 3 SE 0.79 in 0830 AM 06/10 COOP ...Winnebago County... Zittau 1.04 in 0600 AM 06/10 UCOOP Oshkosh 0.78 in 0700 AM 06/10 COOP Oshkosh 2.0 W 0.78 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS 1.5 W Menasha 0.75 in 1000 AM 06/10 HADS Larsen 4 ENE 0.74 in 1059 AM 06/10 AWS ...Wood County... Marshfield 3.0 WSW 2.30 in 0900 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Pittsville - WWTP 2.20 in 0700 AM 06/10 UCOOP Babcock 0.6 W 2.09 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Vesper 1.89 in 1007 AM 06/10 CWOP New Rome 3 WNW 1.86 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Marshfield 1.0 WNW 1.85 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS 0.8 N Hewitt 1.84 in 0730 AM 06/10 COOP Marshfield Airport 1.54 in 1038 AM 06/10 AWOS New Rome 4 ENE 1.53 in 1005 AM 06/10 RAWS Port Edwards 2 WNW 1.46 in 1046 AM 06/10 CWOP Wisconsin Rapids Airport 1.39 in 0954 AM 06/10 ASOS Kellner 3 WNW 1.39 in 0615 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Port Edwards 2 E 1.29 in 0700 AM 06/10 COCORAHS Wisconsin Rapids 1 ESE 1.23 in 1100 AM 06/10 AWS Port Edwards 1 SE 1.16 in 0700 AM 06/10 UCOOP
Shown below is the 24 hour precipitation totals:
Wind Reports
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