National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain in the Southern Plains; Fire Weather Threat in the Southwest U.S.

Thunderstorms, some severe, may produce heavy to excessive rainfall and isolated flooding over portions of the Southern Plains today and Saturday. Dry conditions, combined with gusty winds and low relative humidities will continue to support an elevated to critical fire weather threat in the Desert Southwest into to early next week. Read More >

 

COZ207-261300-
COZ207-261300-
Southwest Colorado Lower Forecast Area-
256 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
256 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 203 BELOW 7000 FEET, 205 BELOW 7000 FEET, 207 AND
292... 

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 203 BELOW 7000 FEET, 205 BELOW 7000 FEET, 207 AND
292... 

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR COLORADO
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203 BELOW 7000 FEET, 205 BELOW 7000 FEET, 207
AND 292... 

.DISCUSSION...Critical fire weather conditions due to warm, dry,
and windy conditions persist through the weekend. Wind gusts 
tomorrow will range from 30 to 40 mph with afternoon relative 
humidity values in the single digits/low teens for much of the 
region. More of the same on Sunday with winds gusting up to 45 
mph.

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SATURDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%) until 2400, then partly 
                    cloudy (40-50%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Min temperature.....38-48 F. 
Max humidity........30-40%. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 
                    mph in the evening becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....South 25 to 35 mph increasing to 35 to 45 mph 
                    after midnight. 
Mixing Height.......12500 ft AGL until 1900. 1500 ft AGL after 
                    2000. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 2100, then poor. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Max temperature.....68-78 F. 
Min humidity........6-11%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    south 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the 
                    afternoon. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 35 to 45 mph becoming south 30 to 40 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL until 0900, then 12000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....South 10 to 15 mph until 1200, then 20 to 30 
                    mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Excellent after 1200. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Min temperature.....36-46 F. 
Max humidity........29-39%. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 40 
                    mph in the evening becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....South 30 to 40 mph increasing to 40 to 50 mph 
                    after midnight. 
Mixing Height.......10500 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph until 2400, then south 5 
                    to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent until 2100, then poor. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20%) until 1200, then partly 
                    cloudy (30-40%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Max temperature.....59-69 F. 
Min humidity........8-13%. 
20-foot winds.......South winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 
                    southwest 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. 
                    Localized gusts up to 45 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....South 40 to 50 mph becoming southwest and 
                    decreasing to 35 to 45 mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL until 0700, then 12500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 20 mph until 1200, then southwest 
                    25 to 35 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then excellent. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 28-38. Highs 57-67. West winds
10 to 20 mph with gusts to  40 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 30-40. Highs 63-73. Winds less than
15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 32-42. Highs 66-76. West winds
10 to 20 mph with gusts to  30 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 36-46. Highs
66-76. 
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
36-46. Highs 68-78.