Fall 2023 Frost/Freeze Info Page (Likely the FINAL FREEZE WARNING of the season Fri night-Sat AM)

** PLEASE NOTE:
(as of Oct. 26, "county eligibility" for Freeze Warnings stand as follows...see graphical version here):
- NWS Hastings WILL CONTINUE FREEZE WARNINGS this fall for 25 counties across the majority of our coverage area (except for the 5 counties listed below). While parts of this area observed a marginal/"barely" freeze of 29-32º on Oct. 7th, a widespread hard/killing freeze of 28º-or-colder did not typically occur. 
-  NWS Hastings intends to *LARGELY DISCONTINUED FROST ADVISORIES this fall for ALL 30 COUNTIES in our coverage area, given that nearly all places already observed frost (if not at least slightly-freezing temperatures) back on Oct. 7th. *HOWEVER, in order to better collaborate with neighboring NWS offices who might still issue Frost Advisories this fall, we might need to make an exception and issue another Frost Advisory for some counties. 
-  NWS Hastings has OUTRIGHT-DISCONTINUED BOTH FREEZE WARNINGS + FROST ADVISORIES this fall for 5 counties in our far northern/western Nebraska coverage area (Valley/Greeley/Dawson/Gosper/Furnas), given that these counties observed a widespread freeze/hard freeze of generally 26-30º back on Oct. 7th

According to longer-term averages, most of the NWS Hastings coverage area of central/south central Nebraska and north central Kansas is ALL BUT BEYOND THE 2-3 WEEK TIME FRAME THAT TYPICALLY FEATURES THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST HARD/KILLING FALL FREEZE (28º or colder). 

Of course, as outlined extensively in the data presented below, the first fall frost/freeze dates can vary tremendously from one year to the next, and just within the past 30 years, "first freezes" (32°) have ranged anywhere from mid-September to early-November. Last fall (2022) actually featured fairly "normal" dates for the first freeze/hard freeze (see 2022 recap section below for more details). 

Please refer to the wealth of information within the tabs below (including tables and maps of average first frost/freeze/hard freeze dates) to stay on top of the frost/freeze situation across our local area this fall. This includes the "Looking Ahead" section just below, as it will highlight any nights within the next 7-10 days that appear to hold frost/freeze potential (if any). Finally, check out the last tab for a glance back at the RECORD-EARLIEST frost/freeze that parts of our area experienced 49 years ago on Sep. 3, 1974!

Looking Ahead:  ** Killing Freeze CERTAIN Between Oct. 28 (Sat AM) and Oct. 30  (Mon AM) **
(info here updated Oct. 27 and may not reflect the very latest forecast information...HOWEVER our official 7-day forecast is always current and available at: www.weather.gov/hastings...just click anywhere on the map for your location of interest. 

• Oct. 28 (Fri night-Sat AM):
  Although much of our coverage area already experienced a somewhat-unexpected hard freeze Friday morning, our ENTIRE COVERAGE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE A HARD/KILLING FREEZE  Fri night-Sat AM, with low temperatures in most places expected to bottom out between 23-28º. As a result, a Freeze Warning has been issues for all 25 counties in our coverage area still deemed "eligible" for them. PLEASE NOTE: this will almost certainly be the FINAL FREEZE WARNING of the season for the NWS Hastings coverage area, with even colder temperatures expected the following few nights along with wintry precipitation for many places.

Recapping Last Fall's (2022) First Frost/Freeze in the NWS Hastings coverage area: 

• A Fairly "Normal" First Fall Freeze/Hard Freeze:  Following a fairly unusual Fall 2021 that featured one of the latest hard freezes on record, the Fall 2022 season was actually rather "normal"/typical, with the vast majority of local sites recording their first occurrences of 36°/32°/28° within 10 days either side of their 30-year average date. For much of our north/northeast coverage area, the first freeze of Fall 2022 occurred on Oct. 8th, but for most places this was actually not a true hard/killing freeze. However, just 9-10 days later (Oct. 17-18), nearly the entire remainder of the area registered the season's first freeze, which was actually also a hard freeze (28° or colder) too for most spots. 

• Frost/Freeze Definitions
• Local/Regional First Frost/Freeze Maps & Table
• MRCC Daily Frost/Freeze Maps
• September 1974 Record Early Freeze

 

Before continuing on, here are a few definitions...

Frost Frost occurs when there is a solid deposition of water vapor from the air. Frost will form when solid surfaces are cooled below the dew point. An air temperature range of 33°- 36°, along with light winds, is usually needed to initiate frost formation. At least minor damage is possible to plants. One must keep in mind that a frost is not guaranteed if the air is very dry and/or winds are roughly 8+ MPH.   The range of average dates for the FIRST fall frost across most of south central NE and north central KS is between Sep. 24 - Oct. 9 Freeze Freeze occurs when the temperature drops to 32°-or-lower. A freeze will damage many unprotected plants, especially if the temperature remains at-or-below freezing for several hours.   The range of average dates for the FIRST fall freeze across most of south central NE and north central KS is between Oct. 2 - 17 Hard Freeze Hard freeze (per our local NWS definition) occurs when the temperature reaches 28°-or-lower. This usually means that most seasonal vegetation will be destroyed. In addition, there is a likelihood of damage to unprotected outdoor plumbing/un-drained sprinkler/irrigation systems etc.    The range of average dates for the FIRST fall hard freeze across most of south central NE and north central KS is between Oct. 10 - 27

 

 

South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas
30 Year Average First Frost/Freeze Dates (1992-2021)
(click image to enlarge)

Average 36° Date (First Possible Frost)	Average 32° Date (First Freeze)	Average 28° Date (First Hard Freeze)

 

Median Dates of First Fall Freeze & Hard Freeze (1991-2020)
Images from the Midwestern Regional Climate Center

Median Date of First 32° Freeze	Median Date of First 28° Hard Freeze

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Below is a table focused on the average first dates for reaching particular frost/freeze temperature thresholds. Keep in mind, there is often tremendous variation from year-to-year and between any given location across the area!

Explanation of the following table:

• The first column lists 10 locations in south central NE and 3 in north central KS with long histories of being NWS Cooperative Observer sites (except for Grand Island and Hastings airports, which are automated systems). This is just a small sampling of dozens of official weather stations within the NWS Hastings coverage area, and these sites are generally organized down the column from north-to south.
   
• The second column shows the average date of the EARLIEST fall observance of 36°, 32° and 28° temperatures during the most recent 30 year period from 1993-2022.
   
• The third and fourth columns reveal the earliest first freeze date and latest first freeze date (32° or colder) over the past 30 years. It is readily apparent that the phrase "average freeze date" is quite relative, as most sites feature a 5-7 week difference between the earliest and latest dates. For the majority of locations, the earliest freeze during the past 30 years occurred between Sep. 13-22 in years such as 2014/1995. On the opposite end of the spectrum, for many locations the latest first freeze of the past 30 years occurred between Oct. 25-Nov. 4 in years such as 1997/1998/2015.
   
• The final column is a recap of LAST FALL (2022), showing the first dates that 36°, 32° and 28° thresholds were observed. A blue-shaded date indicates that the first fall frost/freeze/hard freeze of 2022 occurred at least 10 days EARLIER than the 30-year average, while red-shaded dates indicate a first fall frost/freeze/hard freeze that was at least 10 days LATER than the 30-year average.  

Fall Frost/Freeze Data For South Central Nebraska + North Central Kansas
(based on 30-year averages from 1993-2022)

	Avg. First Date: 36° Or Colder 32° Or Colder 28° Or Colder	1993-2022 Earliest First: 32° Or Colder	1993-2022 Latest First: 32° Or Colder	Last Year (2022) First Occurrence: 36° Or Colder 32° Or Colder 28° Or Colder
Greeley	Sep. 24 Oct. 2 Oct. 10	Sep. 15, 1993	Oct. 17, 2021	Sep. 26 (36º) Oct. 8 (25º) Oct. 8 (25º)
Osceola	Oct. 4 Oct. 15 Oct. 21	Sep. 22, 1995	Nov. 3, 1998	Oct. 8 (31º) Oct. 8 (31º) Oct. 17 (27º)
Gothenburg	Sep. 29 Oct. 6 Oct. 18	Sep. 19, 2006	Oct. 27, 2013	Oct. 8 (33º) Oct. 17 (27º) Oct. 17 (27º)
Kearney Airport (NWS Observer)	Oct. 1 Oct. 10 ​Oct. 21	Sep. 21, 1995	Oct. 25, 1997	Oct. 17 (28º) Oct. 17 (28º) Oct. 17 (28º)
Grand Island (airport)	Oct. 2 Oct. 11 ​Oct. 20	Sep. 20, 1995	Oct. 26, 2007	Oct. 7 (36º) Oct. 8 (31º) Oct. 17 (26º)
Hastings (airport)	Oct. 4 Oct. 14 ​Oct. 21	Sep. 21, 1995	Nov. 3, 1998	Oct. 16 (34º) Oct. 17 (26º) Oct. 17 (26º)
Holdrege	Oct. 3 Oct. 12 ​Oct. 21	Sep. 22, 1995	Nov. 4, 1998	Oct. 8 (35º) Oct. 17 (28º) Oct. 17 (28º)
Clay Center NE	Oct. 6 Oct. 16 ​Oct. 25	Sep. 22, 1995	Nov. 4, 1998	Oct. 8 (36º) Oct. 17 (29º) Oct. 18 (24º)
Cambridge	Sep. 27 Oct. 5 ​Oct. 16	Sep. 13, 2014	Oct. 25, 1997	Oct. 8 (34º) Oct. 17 (26º) Oct. 17 (26º)
Hebron	Oct. 3 Oct. 13 ​Oct. 21	Sep. 22, 1995	Oct. 29, 2015	Oct. 8 (28º) Oct. 8 (28º) Oct. 8 (28º)
Smith Center, KS	Oct. 7 Oct. 16 ​Oct. 24	Sep. 22, 1995	Nov. 4, 1998	Oct. 14 (33º) Oct. 17 (31º) Oct. 18 (27º)
Plainville, KS	Oct. 8 Oct. 17 ​Oct. 26	Sep. 20, 1995	Nov. 3, 1998	Oct. 7 (36º) Oct. 17 (28º) Oct. 17 (28º)
Beloit, KS	Oct. 9 Oct. 16 ​Oct. 27	Sep. 13, 2014	Nov. 10, 1998	Oct. 14 (36º) Oct. 17 (31º) Oct. 18 (25º)

 

The Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) produces maps that update DAILY, depicting the first recorded dates that locations have dropped to at least 32°/28° so far this fall. Check out these statewide maps of Kansas and Nebraska by clicking on the images below.

KS Observed 32° or Below So Far This Fall	NE Observed 32° or Below So Far This Fall
KS Observed 28° or Below So Far This Fall	NE Observed 28° or Below So Far This Fall

 

A Look Back At The Unusually Early Frost/Freeze Of September 1974:

One of the earliest frost and/or freezes on record in parts of central/south central NE and north central KS occurred the first week of September 1974, as many locations dropped below the freezing mark on Sept. 3rd! Just as a few examples: NWS cooperative observers in Beaver City/Ravenna reported morning lows as cold as 29º. Even in our KS coverage area, Webster Dam fell to 32º. 

A surface weather map (below left) from Sept. 3, 1974 depicted just why such frigid temperatures were observed. An unseasonably cold airmass roared into the region behind a strong cold front. Eventually, surface high pressure set up over the region, creating an ideal situation for a record early freeze. In fact, note the handwritten comment "Record early damaging frosts, corn belt area" at the top of the weather map. The original NWS cooperative observation forms from Gothenburg and Greeley NE are also depicted below. The Gothenburg observer noted "Clear. Froze. Ice. Crop Damage" on the right side of the form on the 3rd. It's also interesting to note that both Gothenburg and Greeley recorded freezing temperatures again just 10 days later on Sept. 13!

Sep. 3, 1974 Weather Map	Gothenburg, NE Observation Form	Greeley, NE Observation Form

 For more Frost/Freeze related information including an interactive tool, check out the following source:

• MRCC Freeze Date Tool (new!)...note: this site uses a 1950-2021 dataset, so average dates vary slightly from what is presented in this story

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