Light to moderate snow will continue into Saturday over the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and Northeast. This weekend into next week, a series of atmospheric rivers will bring gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and mountain snow to northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Colder temperatures are in store for the weekend from the Great Lakes to East Coast. Read More >
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The Mangum Fire was first reported around 3 pm MST on June 8th, 2020 southwest of Jacob Lake, Arizona within the Kaibab National Forest. A Type 4 Incident Management Team responded that evening and began suppression efforts. The fire spread northeastward over the next few days due to low relative humidity and southwesterly winds. A Type 2 Southwest Incident Management Team replaced the Type 4 team on June 11th. Strong southwesterly winds spotted embers over US Highway 89A. The fire eventually spread out of the Kaibab National Forest and into pinyon juniper and sage brush grasslands northeast of Jacob Lake. Impacts from the Mangum Fire were felt throughout northern Arizona. The North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park, the town of Jacob Lake and residences along House Rock Road were evacuated. Much of Kaibab National Forest and Bureau of Land Managment public lands located on the Kaibab Plateau and across the Arizona Strip were closed. The North Rim of Grand Canyon National Park was closed during this period. Smoke from the Mangum Fire could be seen well into central Utah.
Mangum Fire perimeter as of June 30th, 2020.
The Mangum Fire progressed mainly northeast through the first week and a half before westerly winds pushed the fire eastward and downslope off the Kaibab Plateau.
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Fuels (grasses, shrubs, etc.) in early to mid-June are typically very dry and this held true in June 2020. The Drypark Remote Automatic Weather Station recorded Energy Release Component values above the 90th percentile in early June. The dry fuels combined with typical low relative humidity and breezy southwesterly afternoon winds during the first few days allowed the fire to spread northeastward across the Kaibab Plateau. By June 11th, winds began to increase out ahead of a Pacific Northwest low pressure system. The increased winds (Figure 1) and very low relative humidity values (Figure 2) created critical fire weather conditions on June 12th and 13th. The Mangum Fire rapidly expanded in size these two days. Elevated afternoon mixing heights on the 12th and 13th allowed for smoke created by the fire to reach 17,000 feet above ground level (about 24,000 feet MSL). The smoke column and plume were easily depicted on KICX radar imagery as the smoke was transported north-northeastward, mainly into Utah. Although, smoke was observed in Page, Arizona during the morning hours on June 14th and caused temporary reductions in visibility at Page Airport (KPGA). A shift in wind direction to the west/northwest occurred on June 17th and 18th. The change in wind direction drove the fire in a more east-southeastward direction versus the previous north-northeastward fire direction.
Figure 1. A strong low pressure system centered off the Washington state coast between June 11th and June 14th created tightened gradients aloft. Gusty winds mixed to the surface each afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 40 mph were forecast and observed.
Figure 2. A typical very dry low and mid-level air mass setup over far northern Arizona in mid-June. Forecast afternoon minimum relative humidity values were in the low teens and single digits with very little overnight recovery.
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