Summary

A series of strong to severe thunderstorms erupted late morning across the western Coconino Plateau on October 3rd, 2022. One storm roughly, 7 miles north of Williams, Arizona attained super cellular characteristics and produce copious amounts of quarter size hail. This same storm then went on to produce a short-lived EF-1 tornado between 12:40 PM and 12:53 PM MST.

Timeline

Loop of radar reflectivity from 11:07 AM to 1:26 PM MST on October 3, 2022. Orange and red shading indicate areas of heavy rain, while the pink and purple values indicate hail. The orange boxes show the areas alerted in the Special Weather Statements and the yellow box shows the Severe Thunderstorm Warning that was issued.	Loop of storm-relative velocity from 11:07 AM to 1:26 PM MST on October 3, 2022. The red and green colors indicate winds away (red) and towards (green) the radar, which is to the southeast in this image. The areas of red and green close to each other just north of Williams show the area of rotation that went on to produce the tornado.

Meteorology

Thunderstorms fired along the western Coconino Plateau during the pre-dawn hours on Monday morning, moving from northwest to southeast across central and northern Arizona. While initially the environment was not overly impressive, daytime heating allowed for destabilization of the atmosphere and an approaching trough axis provided locally enhanced shear. This environment allowed for storms to develop and rapidly intensify during the late morning hours over the region. Shortly before noon, a strong thunderstorm developed several miles east of Valle, the storm slowly progressed southeastward, producing gusty winds and small hail. Around 12:40 PM MST, the storm strengthened becoming severe, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, the storm developed super cellular characteristics with brief rotational radar signatures became apparent. Additional storms went on to produce damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding across Yavapai County later that afternoon.

500mb analysis at 12:00 PM MST on October 3, 2022 showing a trough axis extending from the Northern Plains into Northern Arizona.	Effective Storm Relative Helicity (SRH) at 12:00 PM MST on October 3, 2022 showing locally enhanced shear ahead of the trough axis.	Mixed-Layer Convective Available Potential Energy (MLCAPE) at 12:00 PM MST on October 3, 2022 showing destabilization occurring across the western Coconino Plateau with daytime heating.

Impacts

A very narrow corridor of damage to trees, outbuildings, recreational vehicles, and residential structures were noted. The narrow nature of the damage path, orientation of the wind damage in conjunction with radar evidence yields high confidence to attribute the destruction to that of an EF-1 tornado with peak winds estimated around 95 to 100 mph. No injuries or fatalities have been reported with the tornado. In addition to the tornado, the storm produced copious amounts of quarter size hail, with a few residents noting hail to the size of golf balls.

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Manufactured home slid off of its foundation.	Large tree trunk snapped.	Broken electrical line.
Snapped tree trunks.	Overturned RV.	Destroyed shed.

Contact Information

For more information on impacts and general inquiries about this event, please reference the contacts below.

National Weather Service:

• Brian Klimowski, Meteorologist-in-Charge: (928) 556-9161 x222 or brian.klimowski@noaa.gov
• Tony Merriman, Warning Coordination Meteorologist: (928) 556-9161 x223 or tony.merriman@noaa.gov
• Lamont Bain, Science and Operations Officer: (928) 556-9161 x224 or lamont.bain@noaa.gov

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