Overview
A powerful Colorado Low moved through the Northern and Central Plains from March 13th to March 14th, 2019. This storm brought heavy snow, rain, and blizzard conditions to portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest and west central Minnesota from the evening of March 13th to the night of March 14th, 2019. Strong winds combined with heavy snow caused blizzard conditions and closed local roads, highways, and interstates across much of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Heavy rain and a wintry mix/ice caused ponding of water and slippery roads in portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and the southern Red River Valley.
Wind:
On Thursday March 14th, strong north winds developed. Sustained winds were 20 mph (trees in MN) to 40 mph (southeast ND) with gusts of 30 to 60 mph. The strongest wind gusts were reported at Fergus Falls, MN (59 mph), Dilworth, MN (58 mph), 4 miles south of Buxton, ND (58 mph), and Wahpeton ND (57 mph).
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1222 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 ...PEAK WIND REPORTS FROM MARCH 14TH, 2019... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Minnesota... ...Becker County... Lake Park MN (DOT) 51 MPH 0445 PM 03/14 MNDOT Detroit Lakes MN (MN DNR) 47 MPH 0520 PM 03/14 RAWS Detroit Lakes MN (Airport) 46 MPH 0535 PM 03/14 ASOS Frazee MN 3 E (CWOP) 45 MPH 0605 PM 03/14 CWOP ...Beltrami County... Bemidji MN (MN DNR) 37 MPH 0506 PM 03/14 RAWS Bemidji MN (Airport) 36 MPH 0455 PM 03/14 ASOS Shooks MN (DOT) 34 MPH 0500 PM 03/14 MNDOT Kelliher MN (MN DNR) 32 MPH 0507 PM 03/14 RAWS Waskish MN (Airport) 31 MPH 0635 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Clay County... Dilworth MN (DOT) 58 MPH 0505 PM 03/14 MNDOT Moorhead MN (DOT) 41 MPH 0200 PM 03/14 MNDOT ...Clearwater County... Itasca MN (MN DNR) 31 MPH 0607 PM 03/14 RAWS ...Grant County... Elbow Lake MN (Airport) 49 MPH 0735 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Hubbard County... Park Rapids MN (Airport) 45 MPH 0721 PM 03/14 ASOS Badoura MN (MN DNR) 31 MPH 0606 PM 03/14 RAWS Chamberlain MN (DOT) 30 MPH 0935 PM 03/14 MNDOT ...Kittson County... Donaldson MN (DOT) 50 MPH 0415 PM 03/14 MNDOT St Vincent MN (DOT) 45 MPH 0415 PM 03/14 MNDOT Karlstad MN (MN DNR) 42 MPH 0606 PM 03/14 RAWS Hallock MN (Airport) 41 MPH 0515 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Lake of the Woods County... Baudette MN (Airport) 43 MPH 0952 PM 03/14 ASOS Flag Island MN (AWOS) 40 MPH 0435 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Mahnomen County... Mahnomen MN (DOT) 43 MPH 0445 PM 03/14 MNDOT Mahnomen MN (Airport) 40 MPH 0555 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Marshall County... Gatzke MN 9 SW (MN DNR) 44 MPH 0420 PM 03/14 RAWS Gatzke MN (DOT) 41 MPH 0330 PM 03/14 MNDOT ...Norman County... Hendrum MN (DOT) 56 MPH 0306 PM 03/14 MNDOT ...Otter Tail County... Fergus Falls MN (Airport) 59 MPH 0835 PM 03/14 ASOS Wadena MN (Airport) 39 MPH 0636 PM 03/14 ASOS Ottertail MN (DOT) 32 MPH 0245 PM 03/14 MNDOT ...Pennington County... Thief River Falls MN (Airport) 45 MPH 0431 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Polk County... Crookston MN (Airport) 51 MPH 0316 PM 03/14 ASOS E Grand Forks MN (DOT) 51 MPH 0241 PM 03/14 MNDOT Fosston MN (Airport) 44 MPH 0416 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Red Lake County... Brooks MN (DOT) 45 MPH 0320 PM 03/14 MNDOT ...Roseau County... Roseau MN (MN DNR) 40 MPH 0308 PM 03/14 RAWS Roseau MN (Airport) 40 MPH 0245 PM 03/14 ASOS Badger MN (DOT) 39 MPH 0415 PM 03/14 MNDOT Warroad MN (Airport) 37 MPH 0236 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Wadena County... Verndale MN (DOT) 40 MPH 0545 PM 03/14 MNDOT Staples MN (Airport) 36 MPH 0556 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Wilkin County... Tenney MN (DOT) 55 MPH 0520 PM 03/14 MNDOT Rothsay MN (DOT) 50 MPH 0635 PM 03/14 MNDOT ...North Dakota... ...Benson County... Leeds ND (DOT) 48 MPH 0639 AM 03/14 NDDOT Fort Totten ND (USFW) 32 MPH 0451 PM 03/14 RAWS ...Cass County... Fargo ND (Airport) 56 MPH 0448 PM 03/14 ASOS Buffalo ND 7 N (DOT) 53 MPH 0424 PM 03/14 NDDOT Fargo ND (DOT) 44 MPH 0439 PM 03/14 NDDOT Fargo ND (CWOP) 36 MPH 0227 PM 03/14 CWOP 2 NE Fargo 34 MPH 0405 PM 03/14 CWOP ...Cavalier County... Langdon ND (Airport) 43 MPH 0335 PM 03/14 ASOS Munich ND (AWS) 34 MPH 0500 AM 03/14 AWS ...Grand Forks County... Grand Forks ND (Airport) 54 MPH 0336 PM 03/14 ASOS Grand Forks ND (DOT) 51 MPH 0339 PM 03/14 NDDOT Grand Forks AFB ND (ASOS) 49 MPH 0120 PM 03/14 ASOS Emerado ND (DOT) 45 MPH 0309 PM 03/14 NDDOT Grand Forks ND 5 WSW (CWOP) 33 MPH 0516 PM 03/14 CWOP ...Griggs County... Cooperstown ND (Airport) 55 MPH 1015 AM 03/14 ASOS ...Pembina County... Cavalier ND (Airport) 45 MPH 0655 AM 03/14 ASOS Walhalla ND (Airport) 43 MPH 0535 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Ramsey County... Devils Lake ND (DOT) 51 MPH 0209 PM 03/14 NDDOT Devils Lake ND (Airport) 45 MPH 0614 AM 03/14 ASOS ...Ransom County... Mcleod ND 3 N (USFW) 49 MPH 0549 PM 03/14 RAWS ...Richland County... Wahpeton ND (DOT) 57 MPH 0439 PM 03/14 NDDOT Wahpeton ND (Airport) 56 MPH 0450 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Sargent County... Gwinner ND (Airport) 52 MPH 0235 PM 03/14 ASOS ...Towner County... Cando ND (Airport) 44 MPH 0415 AM 03/14 ASOS ...Traill County... Buxton ND 4 S (DOT) 58 MPH 0124 PM 03/14 NDDOT ...Walsh County... Grafton ND (Airport) 54 MPH 0155 PM 03/14 ASOS Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official. $$
Snow/Ice
The majority of the snowfall in this event occurred along and west of an area from south central North Dakota through much of eastern North Dakota and into far northwest Minnesota. The heaviest band of snow developed along a line from Hallock, MN to Larimore, ND to Medina and Ashley, ND. Observed snowfall totals are depicted in the graphic below.
Rain Reports
Portions of the southern Red River Valley and west central and northwest Minnesota received primarily rain. Observed rainfall totals are depicted in the graphic below.
Photos & Video
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| Zero visibility behind a snow plow near Valley City, ND (Courtesy of ND Highway Patrol) |
Stranded car and semi along Interstate 29 near Casselton (Courtesy of ND Highway Patrol) |
Car stranded in Traill County ND along Highway 200 in large snow drifts (Courtesy of ND Highway Patrol) |
Car buried in large snow drifts in Mayville, ND (Courtesy of Tim Miller) |
More photos can be found in our Facebook album here: https://business.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.2097085583701865&type=1&l=2478c97fc7
Radar
Radar loop from 11:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. on March 13th
Radar loop from 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. on March 13th
Radar loop from 10:00 p.m. on March 13th to 4:00 a.m. on March 14th
Radar loop from 4:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. on March 14th
Radar loop from 10:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. on March 14th
Radar loop from 4:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. on March 14th
Impacts
Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, damaging winds, and ponding of water created numerous travel and safety issues across the region.
Road Closures
One of the greatest impacts from this event was road closures. Regardless of whether any location received rain, snow, wintry mix/ice, or a combination, travel was difficult to impossible across the region from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Roads became blocked and impassable due to heavy blowing and drifting snow creating large snow drifts. Interstate 94 remained closed for the longest period, due to the large snow drifts being so large than the snowplows couldn't even get through them. Roads began to re-open on Thursday evening, but Interstate 94 from Fargo to Bismarck remained close through much of Friday due to 5 ft tall drifts and stranded cars blocking the roadway.
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| MNDOT Plow Cam near Everdall, MN at 109 PM March 14th | ND DOT road conditions at 208 PM March 14th | MN DOT road conditions at 230 PM March 14th |
Environment
The March 13-14 Blizzard was notable for not only the impacts it brought to eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota, but also for the sheer size and strength of the storm system as a whole! This storm system brought high impact weather across the entire central US: tornadoes in New Mexico, extreme winds in western Texas and Oklahoma, as well as blizzard conditions across Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Minnesota. The surface low associated with this storm even broke low pressure and high wind records in Denver, Co!
So how exactly did this storm form?
It all started when a strong upper level low moved into the southwestern U.S (Figure 1). As the upper level low began to move over the Rocky Mountains during the early hours of March 13 upper level divergence (a "spreading-out" motion in the upper levels of the atmosphere) and low level convergence (an "inward" or "converging" motion near the ground) increased due to strong differential vorticity advcetion, lift from the exit region of a subtropical jet, and vertical stretching of air parcels as they moved onto the lee side of the Rocky Mountains (lee cyclogenesis). These three mechanisms caused a rapid intensification of a surface low in eastern Colorado (Figure 6). As the surface low intensified, winds near the ground increased and brought colder air from the northern US southward and warmer air from the south central US northward. This in turn increased the temperature gradient across the central US (commonly called an increase in baroclinicity - this can be seen as a tight temperature gradient in figures 3 and 5). As this temperature gradient increased, the upper level portion of the atmosphere responded by increasing the strength of the jet stream aloft (a mechanism often referred to as a thermal wind response). Additionally, the movement of the cold and warm air at the surface helped strengthen the upper level wave. These responses increased the upper level divergence, which helped further strengthen the surface low.
Local Impacts From the Storm
As the upper level wave and surface low began to move northeast precipitation began to move northward out of South Dakota and southwest Minnesota (as seen in the radar imagery). During the morning hours of March 13 a stationary boundary was present from north to south along the ND/MN border with colder, sub freezing air across North Dakota and warm, above freezing temperatures across west central Minnesota. As the surface low began to move closer to the region winds at the surface increased and helped push warmer air into the southern Red River Valley. As rain began to fall across the southern Red River Valley a variety of precipitation types from snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain were observed. Locations further north and west of the rain/snow line began to receive all snow during the evening hours of March 13 while many locations across west central Minnesota received nearly all rain. The rain/snow line can be roughly determined by inspecting the maximum wet bulb temperature in the lowest portion of the atmosphere (notice the thick purple line in Figure 7 - and note that it remained right over the Fargo area for much of the event!).
Heading into the overnight hours of March 13/14, heavy snow fell across eastern North Dakota and parts of far northwest Minnesota. This was caused by a strong region of frontogenesis and deformation banding setting up over the region. Essentially this means that the temperature and wind fields were favorable for developing a strong warm front in the middle portion of the atmosphere right over the region. This snow band was responsible for many of the heavy snowfall reports across southern and eastern ND. This snow was also noted for how wet and heavy it was. This is due to temperatures remaining near freezing as the snow fell and for the high water content of the air (notice the plume of green moisture moving northward in Figure 4).
Finally, as the surface low began to move eastward away from the region, high pressure moving in behind the surface low helped to increase the surface pressure gradient, which caused very strong northerly winds sustained at 30-40 mph across eastern ND and through the Red River Valley. Strong winds just above the surface (Figure 5) also helped cause wind gusts up to nearly 60 mph. The combination of the heavy snow and high winds cause widespread, and dangerous blizzard conditions across much of eastern North Dakota and far northwest Minnesota.
500 mb Heights, Winds and Temperatures
700 mb Heights, Winds, and Frontogenesis
850 mb Heights, Winds, Temperatures, and Dew Points
850 mb Precipitable Water and Moisture Transport Vectors
925 mb Heights, Winds, Temperatures, and Dew Points
Mean Sea-Level Pressure and Surface Winds
Maximum Wet-Bulb Temperature at 400 mb and Lower
Satellite:
The following loop from GOES-16 shows the mid level water vapor channel (Band 9 - 6.95 um) and the clean longwave infrared channel (Band 13 - 10.35 um) during the life cycle of the rapidly developing midlatitude cyclone March 12 - 15, 2019. This system underwent what is meteorologically known as "bombogenesis" which is an indication of its rapid intensification dropping more than 24 millibars of minimum surface pressure in 24 hours. To find out more, read: https://www.noaa.gov/stories/latest-big-winter-storm-powered-by-bombogenesis
The following video compares a modeled simulation from a high resolution version of the NAM valid March 12, 2019, depicting what water vapor and infrared might look like in the future through March 15, 2019. Comparing this to what was observed via GOES-16, the simulation did quite well. Forecasters can use these simulations to give expectations in the development and maturation of weather features which could point to expected forcing mechanisms and impacts as well as their locations.
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