Winter 2004-2005 Outlook

Note: Dark red and italicized text is taken directly from the 2004-05 Winter Outlook.

It certainly has been an interesting winter thus far across all of Southeast Lower Michigan. The wild temperature variability, the record or near record highs and lows, the frequent rain and snowstorms, and yes, even a calm period or two (like the last week of December and just recently, first week of February) to let us all regroup, so to speak.

While temperature patterns this winter have been quite diverse, the storm track across the Lower Great Lakes has varied little with Southern Michigan, Indiana and Ohio being the main recipients of the storminess. Interesting though, with the wide variance in temperatures, it has just proven to call it a normal winter in the temperature department thus far... Huh? Normal? OK!? This winter has been a strong case for the saying: "statistics don't tell the whole story".

Before delving into what the rest of the winter and early spring could bring, let's briefly check back on our original Winter 2004-05 Outlook issued late October...

WINTER TEMPERATURES:

Temperature variability, sometimes rather extreme, is strongly suggested not only by this year's research but also by recent trends. Temperature data reflected in the selected researched winters (Fig -1) have an incredible range, including everything from the top ten coldest to warmest winters!

That being said, for reasons elaborated on in the following research, the consensus is to go with our strongest indicators of near normal to below normal temperatures for the upcoming Winter of 2004-05. The two-tier temperature outlook is used because of the likelihood of wide variances (a.k.a. roller-coaster pattern) during the winter months as suggested strongly by the 15 selected winters and recent trends. While some wide temperature swings are expected, in the final analysis, near normal to below normal temperature averages are likely.

WINTER SNOWFALL:

Here, our research and recent trends suggests a winter similar to last few winters with snowfalls actually ranging from below normal to above normal... depending largely on location and storm track. The key here is when and where the dominant storm track sets up. At this time, a slight edge is given to a more southern storm track (similar track to that seen in the Winter of 2002-03).

Therefore, while near normal will be the general (or average) category used for this winter's expected snowfall, snowfall totals are still expected to range from below normal to above normal. If the expected storm track materializes, snowfall should range from near normal to above from the northern suburbs of Detroit south to the Ohio Border, while normal to below is expected further north up across the Saginaw Valley into the Thumb Region.

Straight up front, for the most part, there is no need to alter much of the Original Winter Outlook. The expected pattern has strongly dominated the region since November with only the occasional break and little change is expected the remainder of the winter. One change needed in our Winter Outlook is to expand the normal to above normal snow area up across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region, thus encompassing all of Southeast Lower Michigan. This is simply due to the fact that earlier in the season, the vigorous storm track expected, rode far enough north to spread heavy snow across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb Region. Since then, the main track has settled further south across Northern Indiana and Ohio. It is also possible this northern area will again experience heavier snows as the track lifts north this spring.

That being said, are there any other trends noted in the latter part of the "rougher" winters, researched in the study? Checking back once again in the Winter Outlook, under ROUGH WINTERS...

THE ROUGH WINTERS

In researching these weak El Niño (or Neutral winters) in the past, it was found that when conditions come together just right, these winters can be quite stormy and tempestuous.

Check out these rough winters in the research...

(Fig - 3)
Winter	Solar Phase	Average Temperature						Season Snowfall						Snowy Months
		Detroit		Flint		Saginaw		Detroit		Flint		Saginaw
1899-00	/SCD/	26.1		24.2	*	-		69.1	(4)	-		-		F/M
1911-12	/SCB/	21.8	(13)	19.7	*	19.6		58.0	(14)	-		59.3	(15)	J/F/M
1925-26	/SCU/	26.1		24.5	*	23.1		78.0	(2)	64.9		54.0		J/F/M
1951-52	/SCD/	29.0		26.5		25.0		58.6	(13)	75.3		83.5	(2)	D/J
1976-77	/SCD/	19.8	(3)	16.9	(1)	18.3	(8)	43.9		44.8		18.5		J/M
1977-78	/SCB/	20.4	(7)	19.1	(5)	17.9	(6)	61.7	(8)	50.6		55.6	(20)	D/J
2002-03	-	24.1		22.5	(17)	21.3	(19)	60.9	(9)	52.1	(15)	42.4		D/J/F

(  )	Coldest or Snowiest Ranking
-  -	Warmest or Snowless Ranking
/SCD/	Solar cycle phase in a downtrend and closest to that of the upcoming winter
/SCB/	Solar Cycle phase close but ahead of this winter and AT the bottom of the phase
/SCU/	Solar Cycle phase near same level as this winter but in an uptrend
*	Not an Official Record and not in ranking (Official Records Began in 1942)

While storminess this winter has been a relatively steady trend, temperatures have varied so much that this continues to be the trend. In addition, with the pattern of the weak El Ninño in place those years along with past trends of the NAO/AO/PDO (where available, and at the present) may indicate a trend for the remainder of the winter into early spring. A closer inspection of the more anomalous Winters of 1899-00, 1925-26, 1951-52 and 2002-03 also may help keep us pointed in the right direction. Note the snowfalls in those similar winters and their pattern.

Interesting, all winters except 1951-52 indicate the heaviest snows fell mid to late winter. When averaged out, the snowiest month tended to be February (1900 and 1926 really skewed that up) but note that the snowiest months in the Winter of 1951-52 were early to mid winter. Also, the Winter of 1951-52, does have some other common threads to this winter. It too was an exceptionally stormy winter with heavy amounts of snow across the entire Southeast Lower Michigan area along with an impressive temperature "roller-coaster ride". In addition, the 1951-52 winter average temperature was actually relatively mild at an even 29 degrees for Detroit. So far this winter, December and January averaged right around normal (albeit a bit cooler up in the Saginaw Valley) and if the following expectation for the rest of February pans out, the average winter temperature may actually rise to a bit above normal.

Recent data suggests February's temperature pattern to be normal to above normal by month's end with a continuation of the notable temperature swings. This looks reasonable and it would tighten up the range in our Winter Outlook to at least around normal (rather than normal to below). It also jives a bit more with the 1951-52 temperature scenario which again, averaged 29.0 degrees.

Early spring:

Unfortunately, if the recent pattern continues to reflect the late winter into early spring patterns of the anomalous winters in the outlook, the temperatures will tend to revert back to below normal at the start (at least for March) with the entire spring averaging normal to below.

With little change expected in the active storm track, precipitation is likely to continue normal to above normal right into at least early spring.

Look for a preliminary write up on the Winter of 2004-05 by late March And a final write up when the snow ceases to fly.