Expert Forecast Opinion

447
FXUS63 KDTX 042313
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
613 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frigid wind chills tonight falling in the negative single
digits. Low teens wind chills Friday afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures persist this weekend and into next week.

- The next chances for light snow will be Friday night and Sunday.
Sunday holds a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch.

&&

.AVIATION...

Upper level confluence will support cold Canadian high pressure
tonight. Strong static stability is advertised between 2.5 and 13.5
kft agl supporting little in the way of cloud. The preference is to
carry SKC tonight. Surface winds tonight will be light to variable
to calm and will emerge out of the southwest Friday ahead of another
cold front. High clouds are expected to push into the region during
the morning with an attempt at some top down saturation occurring
late Friday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

DISCUSSION...

A arctic airmass has settled over the Great Lakes with the expected
frigid temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures in the teens to low
20s with single digit wind chills are expected to hold through the
remainder of the afternoon even under sunny skies. Any isolated
lake clouds this afternoon will diminish as light winds back out of
the south tonight with mainly high clouds moving in across the north.
The mostly clear skies brings opportunity for overnight lows to
plummet down into the single digits with some spots towards the
southern border falling below zero degrees. The light wind brings
wind chills down into the negative single digits.

Surface high pressure slides to the east tomorrow allowing a
southwest wind to draw in a slightly warmer airmass. Still expect
daytime highs tomorrow to top out around the mid 20s with a 10 to 20
mph wind resulting in wind chills in the teens. Height falls arrive
over the Great Lakes Friday night bringing the next chance to see
snowfall. Relatively weak lift will reach southeast Michigan with
the better forcing to the north of the CWA and moisture depth will
be lacking with PWATs to a quarter inch and specific humidity of 2.2
to 2.4 g/kg. A dusting up to around a half inch looks possible and
favored across locations north of I-69 through Saturday morning.
Model soundings and local probability guidance does point towards a
low potential for freezing drizzle towards sunrise Saturday morning
as dry air strips any moisture from the DGZ ahead of a cold front.
Confidence remains low and will continue to monitor trends for any
impactful period of freezing drizzle.

Temperatures may rebound to the low-mid 30s for daytime highs
Saturday with drier conditions Saturday evening. The passing cold
front will send temperatures back down into the 20s for highs on
Sunday for bulk of the area. Another wave tracking across the Great
Lakes on Sunday bringing the next chance for accumulating snowfall.
The renewed colder airmass will bring high confidence in an all snow
p-type. Trends have been increasing for snow accumulation with
latest probability guidance for achieving 1 inch over 12 hours up
toward 50 percent in parts of southeast Michigan. Overall totals for
this event should stay on the light side as moisture depth is still
limited. High pressure keeps conditions largely quiet during the
early week as below average temperatures persist. Active weather
pattern holds into mid-week that brings more accumulating snowfall
potential.

MARINE...

High pressure building across the area this afternoon is leading to
rapidly improving conditions across the waters as northwesterly
winds weaken. There will be a lull in winds this evening into
tonight when winds drop to around 20 knots but this will be short
lived as there will be another round of increased southwesterly
winds starting late tonight into Friday morning ahead of the next
system. This system will track through Ontario and will pull a cold
front through early Saturday. Another round of Small Craft
Advisories for Saginaw Bay have been issued as southwesterly winds
again increase to around 30 knots. Could see a few gusts to 35 knot
gales over central Lake Huron Friday, but should be isolated enough
to avoid mentioning gales in the forecast at this point. Guidance
did pretty well with the winds the last two days which lends to
increased confidence with this next event.

CLIMATE...

The record low max temps for Thursday, December 4th.

Detroit: 23 Degrees (Set in 1895)
Flint: 23 Degrees (Set in 1935)
Saginaw: 22 Degrees (Set in 1991)

The record low min temps for Friday, December 5th.

Detroit: 6 Degrees (Set in 1974)
Flint: 6 Degrees (Set in 1991)
Saginaw: 6 Degrees (Set in 1991)

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for
LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......DRK
CLIMATE......TF


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