Expert Forecast Opinion

624
FXUS63 KDTX 022359
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
659 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions Monday as a cold front crosses the region in the
late morning. Peak gusts are expected to fall in the 30 to 40 MPH
range.


- Chances for rain favored towards northern half of the region
Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...

Steady 5 to 10 knot southwest wind will carry through bulk of this
evening and tonight. VFR skies will start the TAF period as
increasing high clouds move in ahead of an approaching cold front. A
strong low level jet will bring LLWS concerns tonight before the
cold front arrives. An area of showers will then move into MBS
toward 09-10Z and then work through southeast Michigan through about
14-15Z. Highest confidence for showers will be across FNT and MBS
with less confidence towards the southern metro terminals, so will
go with TEMPO groups to the north and maintain PROB30 groups for
rain showers to the south. MVFR ceilings will quickly fill in around
12-13Z for a relatively short period of time with the frontal
passage before clouds decrease in post frontal conditions into the
early afternoon. Gusty west winds will then develop Monday afternoon
with cold advection and a tight pressure gradient supporting gusts of
30 knot. Gusts then ease during the evening under clear skies.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms today through Monday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet by 10-12Z Sunday morning. Low for
Monday afternoon.

* Low to moderate for crosswind thresholds Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

DISCUSSION...

The exit region of a strong 160 knot jet racing along the US/Canada
border this afternoon will reach the Great Lakes tonight bringing
the next chance of precipitation Monday morning and gusty winds into
the afternoon. Models have deviated little in the previous few runs
having a stacked low over northern Ontario drawing some lead energy
from the jet northward before the nose of the jet barrels into lower
MI. This will push the southern extension of the cold front through
SE MI late Monday morning with a very narrow warm sector just
preceding it. This setup will offer a brief window of rain over the
area mainly between 09-15Z. Main update with this package was to
extend slight chance pops southward to the border giving credit to a
ribbon of strong fgen, upper level support, and strong low level
jet. We`ve seen it too many times where the lead edge of the theta e
gradient and fgen is able to generate light showers even under the
backdrop of drier air under the ridge.

A strong, but weakening, 40 knot low level jet will pass over the
area in advance of the system tonight but will have difficulties
mixing to the surface overnight. Behind the cold front, mixing
depths increase which will tap into some of the increase westerly
flow with 850mb winds around 35 knots. Local probabilistic graphics
show a low chance for surface gusts to exceed 35 mph and national
hires probs mostly stay below 35 mph as well. Could see a situation
where the initial pop of wind could see some higher gusts around 35-
40 mph before settling more around 30-35 mph through the afternoon
hours. Best potential for higher gusts remains across the northern
Thumb with the increased winds off Saginaw Bay coming ashore.

Longwave pattern flattens out locally mid week with a shortwave
ridge sliding over the region bringing quiet weather on Tuesday. The
low amplitude and progressive longwave pattern continues through the
remainder of the forecast though with the next trough coming early
Wednesday. Outside of a weaker jet around 130 knots driving the
system, the overall look to the pattern is similar to tonight/Monday
with the low passing to the north and weaker trough/cold front
sweeping through lower MI presenting a chance for rain. It does
appear to be shifted a little south of tonight`s system offering a
better chance for precipitation. After another ridge on Thursday a
pair of systems will look to target the area Friday and Sunday.

MARINE...

A diffuse high pressure system will continue to hold across the
Great Lakes through the afternoon and early evening hours which will
maintain lighter winds for most of the region. Unsettled conditions
will quickly move in tonight and will last through most of the day
tomorrow in association with an approaching cold front. Southwest
flow will ramp up tonight, initially across northern Lake Huron,
before increasing through the Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron
into the early morning hours. Sustained wind speeds around 25 to 30
knots are expected with gust potential to 35 knot gales. Wind
direction will veer west-northwest tomorrow morning and afternoon in
the wake of the front, where improved mixing depths will sustain
gale potential through the day. The favorable fetch across north and
north-central Lake Huron brings higher chances for gusts to peak
around 40 knots after the passage of the cold front. Widespread
showers are expected with the front through the morning. A Gale
Warning and Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

A ridge of high pressure will build in Tuesday, bringing respite
from unsettled conditions. A second low pressure system is expected
to move across northern lower Michigan by Wednesday , bringing back
elevated winds and gusts through the midweek period. Gusts to 30
knots will be possible with this system.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday
for LHZ442-443.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Monday for LHZ361>363-421-441-462>464.

Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday
for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday
for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......DRK


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