Lake Fenton Tornado On July 11th 2022

Overview

Weakened thunderstorms traversed Lake Michigan during the afternoon hours on June 11, 2022, and largely dissipated upon arrival to Southeast Michigan. A second round of convection worked through late that evening ahead of an advancing cold front as a more unstable environment developed ahead of an advancing cold front. Severe thunderstorm warnings were issued between I-69 and M-59 from 10:41 PM until 1 AM as the strongest lead storm progressed eastward. The storm produced an EF-0 tornado that touched down near the eastern shores of Lake Fenton before lifting 3 miles ESE of Holly, just west of I-75. Several homes, outbuildings, and trees sustained varying degrees of damage. Damaging severe thunderstorm wind gusts redeveloped as the storm crossed through Lapeer causing additional tree and utility line damage.

Tornado
Photos & Video
Radar
Environment

Tornadoes:

Tornado - Lake Fenton to Holly, MI
Genesee and Oakland County

Date	July 11, 2022
Time (Local)	11:33 PM - 11:42 PM EDT
EF Rating	EF-0
Est. Peak Winds	65 mph
Path Length	7.5 miles
Max Width	40 yards
Injuries/Deaths	0/0
Summary: An NWS storm survey confirmed a weak tornado developed over or along the shoreline of eastern Lake Fenton late yesterday evening (July 11th). The tornado tracked east-southeast for 7.5 miles before lifting 3 miles east-southeast of Holly/just west of I-75. The first indication of damage occurred on Pine Street near Lake Fenton where large limbs fell on a home, which took out a second-story dormer and a portion of the roof. Tree damage was sparse and sporadic along the path, mainly consisting of tree limbs and leaves down. The peak damage was observed in the backyard of a home on Addis Road in Holly. About a dozen trees suffered significant damage. The home also lost a few vinyl siding panels and a pergola was damaged. A barn farther down the road lost some metal roofing.

Track Map

Clayton Twp Path

The Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories:

EF0 Weak 65-85 mph	EF1 Moderate 86-110 mph	EF2 Significant 111-135 mph	EF3 Severe 136-165 mph	EF4 Extreme 166-200 mph	EF5 Catastrophic 200+ mph

Photos & Video

Mainly Minor Damage


House near Lake Fenton	Tree damage behind house on Addis Rd	Vinyl siding panels	Metal roofing

Radar


Radar Loop	Four Panel Radar (circulation/debris ball)	Radar Estimate of Rainfall	1-hour Cloud-to-Ground Lightning

Environment:

A corridor of higher MLCAPE (Figure 4) continued to surge northeastward after 00Z on July 12, 2022 within a modest low-level jet. The resultant low-level ThetaE plume helped sustain an in-bound axis of convection over western Lower Michigan oriented along/ahead of an inbound cold front. The front was guided along by a positively tilted shortwave trough digging across the Great Lakes (Figure 9). SPC placed most of Southeast Michigan within a Marginal Risk for severe weather, while areas along/south of I-94 were marked as Slight Risk (Figure 1). While damaging winds were the main threat for the event (15% probability), SPC did outlook the Slight Risk area with a 2% probability for tornadoes (Figure 3). The front exhibited characteristics of an active FGEN slope (Figure 7) as it crossed US-127 around 03Z. Effective shear on the order of 50 knots maintained a tilted storm strong for sustained mature updrafts (Figure 5). Given the nocturnal timing of the frontal passage, the main axis of convection was elevated in nature with the KDTX July 12 00Z sounding showing an elevated mixed-layer with a steep lapse rate (~7.5 C/km) . However, the lead storm became rooted in the boundary-layer and became surface-based which tapped into the modestly backed low-level wind profile reflected by mesoanalysis metrics of 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH. LCL heights in the 750-1000 m range were marginally low enough for tornadic development with the lead storm which exhibited strengthening velocity couplet just after 10:30 PM along with a tornado debris signature (a correlation-coefficient drop below 0.80) over Lake Fenton (see radar section). The front then exhibited a weakening trend as it progressed eastward with the southern extent crossing into a less favorable environment causing convection to decay into Metro Detroit.

SPC Outlooks


Figure 1: SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook	Figure 2: Probability of Severe Wind	Figure 3: Probability of Tornado

Near-Storm Environment Summary


Figure 4: Mixed-Layer Cape	Figure 5: Effective Wind Shear	Figure 6: Supercell Composite Parameter

Additional Environmental Data


Figure 7: Low-Level FGEN	Figure 8: 00z DTX Sounding	Figure 9: 500 MB Heights/Wind/Temps

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