March 14, 2019 Tornado and Severe Weather Event

Tornadoes:

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Tornado 1 - SSW of Corunna, MI Shiawassee County Date March 14, 2019 Time (Local) 6:47 PM - 6:54 PM EDT EF Rating EF-0 Est. Peak Winds 80 mph Path Length 6.4 miles Max Width 100 yards Injuries/Deaths 0/0 Summary: The tornado touched down close to the intersection of Bennington Greens Drive and Innsbrook Drive, snapping pine trees. The tornado continued northeast, crossing M-52 near West Grand River Road. Hardwood trees were observed snapped with large limbs down. The tornado then hit a Farm along South Morrice Road, just south of W Garrison Road. Trees were uprooted and a well built farm outbuilding lost its roof. The tornado snapped additional trees near Vandecarr and Bennington Roads before lifting near the Maple River. Track Map Radar Velocity Image at 6:47 PM EDT Inbound velocities (green) located next to outbound velocities (red) is indicative of rotation within the storm (black circle).

Tornado 2 - Vernon, MI Shiawassee County Date March 14, 2019 Time (Local) 6:45 PM - 7:05 PM EDT EF Rating EF-2 Est. Peak Winds 125 mph Path Length 18.2 miles Max Width 700 yards Injuries/Deaths 0/0 Summary: The tornado touched down around the intersection of Britton Rd and I-69 and produced EF-0 damage up to Bancroft Rd and Newburg Rd with large tree limbs downed and trees snapped. Shoreline Lake Condos had over 10 trailers and mobile homes damaged from falling trees. The tornado continued northeast from Bancroft Rd/Newburg Rd to M-71 just ESE of Vernon producing EF-2 damage. One roof was completely taken off, a second story wall collapsed, and numerous homes with wall damage. The tornado weakened back down to EF-1 as two more home damaged near Bennington Rd Reed Rd. The tornado finally lifted near Riniel Rd just south of Lytle Rd. Track Map Radar Velocity Image (left) at 6:57 PM EDT Inbound velocities (green) located next to outbound velocities (red) is indicative of rotation within the storm. Radar Correlation Coefficient (CC) Image (right) Blue area indicates debris being lofted into the air, which is being picked up by the radar. (6:57 PM EDT)

Tornado 3 - Flushing, MI Genesee County Date March 14, 2019 Time (Local) 7:09 PM - 7:17 PM EDT EF Rating EF-0 Est. Peak Winds 85 mph Path Length 8.0 miles Max Width 125 yards Injuries/Deaths 0/0 Summary: The tornado touched down on Nichols Rd just south of Corunna Rd before traveling east/northeast to Calkins Rd just east of Morrish Rd. Damage included downed and snapped trees, large limbs, and a collapsed pole barn. The tornado lifted near Jennings Rd just north of Pasadena Ave. Track Map Radar Velocity Image at 7:09 PM EDT Inbound velocities (green) located next to outbound velocities (red) is indicative of rotation within the storm (black circle).

Tornado 4 - Genesee Township, MI Genesee County Date March 14, 2019 Time (Local) 7:24 PM - 7:29 PM EDT EF Rating EF-0 Est. Peak Winds 80 mph Path Length 6.5 miles Max Width 75 yards Injuries/Deaths 0/0 Summary: A tornado touched down near the intersection of Stanley and Bray Roads and quickly tracked off to the northeast. The storm lifted near the M-57 and Irish Road intersection. The tornado was strongest when it hit the Camelot Villas off of Genesee Road. A mobile home was flipped onto its side, with another mobile home partially blown off the foundation. Roof and siding damage was prevalent within the mobile park. Clusters of trees were snapped and tree tops sheared along the tornado path, with a couple other small trailers flipped. Track Map Radar Velocity Image at 7:25 PM EDT Inbound velocities (green) located next to outbound velocities (red) is indicative of rotation within the storm (black circle).

The Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories:

EF0 Weak 65-85 mph	EF1 Moderate 86-110 mph	EF2 Significant 111-135 mph	EF3 Severe 136-165 mph	EF4 Extreme 166-200 mph	EF5 Catastrophic 200+ mph

Photos & Video

WOOD TV Channel 8 Story on Tornadoes

MLive.com Story

Southwest of Lennon, MI (Channel 25 Flint)	Vernon, MI (CJ Postal)	Vernon, MI (CJ Postal)	Vernon, MI (CJ Postal)

Vernon, MI (Jim Barrett)	Roseville, MI (Anthony Robart)	Columbus Township, MI (Amanda Jane K.)	Owosso, MI (Bailey Cook Leppert)

Flushing, MI (Lindsi Letts)	Flushing, MI (Lindsi Letts)	Dexter, MI (Dan Robelen)	Dexter, MI (Dan Robelen)

Radar

Storm Reports

Public Information Statement (PNS) for Tornado 1 near Corunna, MI	Public Information Statement (PNS) for Tornado 2 near Vernon, MI

Public Information Statement (PNS) for Tornado 3 near Flushing, MI	Public Information Statement (PNS) for Tornado 4 near Genesee Township, MI

Above image depicts that local storm reports and warnings across the region on Thursday, March 14th, 2019.

Environment

A strong low pressure system lifted northeast from the central Plains into the central Great Lakes the afternoon and evening of March 14, 2019. Strong dynamics associated with this system aided in the transport of anomalously warm and moist air into lower Michigan. Multiple rounds of severe weather occurred with this strong low pressure system, with reports of damaging winds, large hail, and 4 tornadoes across portions of southeast Michigan. The hardest hit areas were across Shiawassee, Genesee, and Tuscola counties, and across portions of Lenawee and Washtenaw counties. The bulk of severe weather reports came from a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that moved from west to east across southeast Michigan between 6 PM and 10 PM. Luckily, there were no reports of injuries or deaths associated with the severe weather.

The low pressure center tracked northwest of southeast Michigan, lifting a convergence of frontal boundaries known as a triple point across southeast Michigan (Figure 1). The convergence of these frontal boundaries provided a source of lift for the thunderstorms to develop. The atmospheric setup for this event was impressive, especially for March standards. As Figure 2 depicts, the observed sounding profile taken at KDTX roughly during the peak of the event, revealed a more than favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment conducive for a threat of severe thunderstorms. The sounding revealed a "loaded gun" appearance with respect to the temperature and moisture profiles, which is often a favorable sounding profile for severe thunderstorm development. There were several notable features from the observed sounding profile. These included some of the following: steep temperature lapse rates in the 850-700 hPa layer representative of a quasi elevated mixed layer, strong cyclonically-curved low-level wind profile leading to a large hodograph, and impressive shear values (0-6 km value of 100 knots and 0-1 km value of 58 knots). Strong winds in excess of 75 knots near 850 hPa also contributed to a notably fast storm motion profile. The round of thunderstorms that affected Washtenaw and Lenawee counties earlier in the afternoon moved from south to north at incredible speeds of 100 mph! (Note: only 40-50 mph winds were observed at the surface) The round of thunderstorms that produced tornadoes in Shiawassee and Genesee counties equally moved as fast, with noted storm motion around 50 mph.

This event was forecast ahead of time, with hi-resolution model guidance the day of the event providing valuable clues as to the coverage and nature of potential severe weather across southeast Michigan. As an example, the morning run of one of these hi-resolution models, the HRW-ARW, fairly accurately depicted the line of thunderstorms that resulted in tornadoes across Shiawassee and Genesee counties (Figure 3). Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center had placed southeast Michigan in a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms for the day.

Figure 1: Surface map, valid 00 UTC March 15, 2019.	Figure 2: KDTX observed sounding, valid 00 UTC March 15, 2019.	Figure 3: Output of the 12 UTC March 14, 2019 cycle HRW-ARW hi-resolution model, valid 23 UTC March 14, 2019.

The near-storm environment was conducive to tornado development, in addition to damaging straight-line winds and hail. Tornado development potential is increased with the presence of surface-based instability, high low-level wind shear, and low cloud base heights. Despite being mid-March, surface temperatures rising into the mid 50s to mid 60s coupled with surface dewpoints reaching well into the 50s allowed for surface-based instability to develop. As Figure 4 depicts, SBCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg reached as far north as Shiawassee and Genesee counties, with both of these counties favorably located along the northward gradient, or nose, of greatest instability. In addition to available instability for thunderstorm development, wind shear values were extremely favorable across southeast Michigan, with 0-1 km bulk shear values in excess of 50 knots (Figure 5). Low cloud-base heights (Figure 6), coupled with the juxtaposition of instability and high low-level wind shear, resulted in the conducive environment for tornado development across Shiawassee and Genesee counties the evening of March 14, 2019.

The amount of available horizontal rotation that can be tilted vertically for tornado development in a thunderstorm updraft is known as Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH). 0-3 km SRH (Figure 7) values for this event were impressively high and exceeded 700 m2/s2! Another indicator of thunderstorm updrafts and a near surface environment favorable for tornado development was the juxtaposition of enhanced surface vorticity (vertical spin) with 0-3 km CAPE values in excess of 150 J/kg (Figure 8). The Significant Tornado Parameter (STP), a derived parameter that measures the potential of a significant tornado (EF2+), was also in excess of 0.5 into Shiawassee and Genesee counties (Figure 9). All of these derived severe weather parameters only further tell the story of why 4 tornadoes formed and impacted portions of Shiawassee and Genesee counties the evening of March 14, 2019.

Figure 4: Loop of surface-based Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), valid from 18 UTC March 14, 2019 to 02 UTC March 15, 2019.	Figure 5: Loop of 0-1 km bulk shear, valid from 18 UTC March 14, 2019 to 02 UTC March 15, 2019.	Figure 6: Loop of Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) heights, valid from 18 UTC March 14, 2019 to 02 UTC March 15, 2019.

Additional environmental data.

Figure 7: Loop of 0-3 km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH), valid from 18 UTC March 14, 2019 to 02 UTC March 15, 2019.	Figure 8: Loop of 0-3 km Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) overlaid against surface-based vorticity, valid from 18 UTC March 14, 2019 to 02 UTC March 15, 2019.	Figure 9: Loop of the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) index, valid from 18 UTC March 14, 2019 to 02 UTC March 15, 2019.