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ENSO

MJO

AO

Stratospheric Warming

NAO

PNA

EP-NP

Blocking

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Composite Precipitation and Temperature Impacts

Latest ENSO Observations

Daily SST Anomaly	Weekly SST Anomaly	Monthly SST Anomaly	Seasonal SST Anomaly

Observed Regions	OLR Anomalies

850 mb Wind Anomalies

200 mb Wind Anomalies

Equitorial T Anomaly	Equitorial Temperature	20 C Depth Anomaly

Latest ENSO Forecasts

NMME Nino 3.4 Mean Forecasts	NMME Nino 3.4 All Forecasts	CPC CFSv2 Nino 3.4	NMME/IMME Nino 3.4 Forecast

CFSv2 SST Seasonal Lead 1	CFSv2 SST Seasonal Lead 2	CFSv2 SST Seasonal Lead 3	CFSv2 SST Seasonal Lead 4

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ENSO

MJO

AO

Stratospheric Warming

NAO

PNA

EP-NP

Blocking

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

MJO Temperature Impact Composites By Phase

MJO Precipitation Impact Composites By Phase

GEFS Phase Diagram	High Res GFS Phase Diagram	Statistical Phase Diagram

OLR Anomalies	OLR Anomalies	200mb Velocity Potential

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ENSO

MJO

AO

Stratospheric Warming

NAO

PNA

EP-NP

Blocking

Arctic Oscillation (AO)

Composite Precipitation and Temperature Impacts

Observed/Forecast AO

Polar Vortex Cross Section

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is compares 1000 mb height anomalies pole of 20N to those across the middle latitudes.

A positive AO suggests a stronger polar vortex with lower pressures near the pole, allowing the middle latitude jet stream to blow strongly and consistently from west to east, keeping colder air locked in the polar region.
A negative AO suggests higher pressures in the polar region, weaker zonal winds and the potential for acrtic air to move south into the middle latitudes. (1998 David WJ Thompson and John Michael Wallace)

Positive AO 500mb Anomalies	Negative AO 500mb Anomalies

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ENSO

MJO

AO

Stratospheric Warming

NAO

PNA

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Blocking

Stratospheric Warming

Zonal Temperature Anomalies (2018)	Zonal Temperature Anomalies (2019)

Zonal Wind Anomalies (2018)	Zonal Wind Anomalies (2019)

10mb Zonal Temperature Analysis

The values for the current year (bold red line) may be compared to the average values for each day (green) and the extreme maximum and minimum values for the entire temperature analysis record from 1979 through the most recent complete calendar year, (bounding upper and lower black lines).

GFS 10 MB T Forecasts

H24	H48	H72	H96	H120

H144	H168	H192	H216	H240

GFS 30 MB Height Forecasts

H00	H24	H48

H72	H96	H120

H144	H168	H192

H216	H240

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ENSO

MJO

AO

Stratospheric Warming

NAO

PNA

EP-NP

Blocking

North American Oscillation (NAO)

NAO Observations and Forecasts	Forecast 700mb Anomalies

Obs. NH 500mb Anomalies

The positive phase of the NAO reflects below-normal heights and pressure across the high latitudes of the North Atlantic and above-normal heights and pressure over the central North Atlantic, the eastern United States and western Europe. The negative phase reflects an opposite pattern of height and pressure anomalies over these regions.

Strong positive phases of the NAO tend to be associated with above-average temperatures in the eastern United States and across northern Europe and below-average temperatures in Greenland and oftentimes across southern Europe and the Middle East. They are also associated with above-average precipitation over northern Europe and Scandinavia in winter, and below-average precipitation over southern and central Europe.

Positive NAO 500mb Anomalies	Positive NAO T Anomalies	Negative NAO 500mb Anomalies	Negative NAO T Anomalies	NAO Positional Impacts

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ENSO

MJO

AO

Stratospheric Warming

NAO

PNA

EP-NP

Blocking

Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA)

PNA Observations and Forecasts	Forecast 200mb Anomalies

Obs. NH 200mb Anomalies

The positive phase of the PNA pattern features above-average heights in the vicinity of Hawaii and over the intermountain region of North America, and below-average heights located south of the Aleutian Islands and over the southeastern United States. The PNA pattern is associated with strong fluctuations in the strength and location of the East Asian jet stream.

The positive phase of the PNA pattern is associated with above-average temperatures over western Canada and the extreme western United States, and below-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S. The associated precipitation anomalies include above-average totals in the Gulf of Alaska extending into the Pacific Northwestern United States, and below-average totals over the upper Midwestern United States.

Positive PNA 500mb Anomalies	Positive PNA T Anomalies	Negative PNA 500mb Anomalies	Negative PNA T Anomalies

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ENSO

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EP-NP

Blocking

East Pacific-North Pacific Oscillation (EP-NP)

EP-NP Index

The East Pacific - North Pacific (EP- NP) pattern is a Spring-Summer-Fall pattern with three main anomaly centers. The positive phase of this pattern features positive height anomalies located over Alaska/ Western Canada, and negative anomalies over the central North Pacific and eastern North America. Strong positive phases of the EP-NP pattern are associated with a southward shift and intensification of the Pacific jet stream from eastern Asia to the eastern North Pacific, followed downstream by an enhanced anticyclonic circulation over western North America, and by an enhanced cyclonic circulation over the eastern United States. Strong negative phases of the pattern are associated with circulation anomalies of opposite sign in these regions.

The positive phase of the EP-NP pattern is associated with above-average surface temperatures over the eastern North Pacific, and below-average temperatures over the central North Pacific and eastern North America. The main precipitation anomalies associated with this pattern reflect above-average precipitation in the area north of Hawaii and below-average precipitation over southwestern Canada.

Bell and Janowiak (1995, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.) noted that the atmospheric circulation during the several months prior to the onset of the Midwest floods of June-July 1993 was dominated by a very strong positive phase of the EP-NP pattern. Their study concluded these conditions were indirectly important to the onset and overall magnitude of the floods, since they fostered an anomalously intense storm track over the midlatitudes of the North Pacific. Dramatic changes in this storm track during June then ultimately initiated the Midwest floods.

Quick Jumps:

ENSO

MJO

AO

Stratospheric Warming

NAO

PNA

EP-NP

Blocking