Floods due to heavy rainfall, not associated with tropical cyclones, have
been one of the greatest threats to lives and property in South Texas for years.
In order to aid forecasters with predicting such events, pattern recognition
maps depicting several synoptic scale meteorological variables were created.
24-hour observed rainfall amounts of three-inches or greater for the Corpus
Christi (43 stations), Victoria (40 stations), and Laredo (32 stations) TX areas
between 1/1/1979 and 7/31/2016 were considered. This period was chosen to
coincide with the six "satellite-era" reanalysis datasets used in this study.
An event was defined as having two or more stations (e.g., multicity) within the same area
(e.g., Victoria) on the same day observe three or more inches of rain and/or if
at least one station within the same area experienced three inches or more of 24-hour
rainfall on consecutive days. Corpus Christi, Victoria, and Laredo TX observed
47, 52, and 11 such events between 9/19/1979 and 5/16/2016. Reanalysis data
was processed using NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit, ArcGIS, and Python scripts.
An analysis time of ± 30 minutes of 1200 UTC was used.
| Dataset |
Source |
Initial Resolution |
Final Resolution |
| Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) |
NCEP's CFS Version 1 |
T382 (˜ 38 km), 64 levels |
0.36° x 0.36° |
| Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSv2) |
NCEP's CFS Version 2 |
T574 (˜ 27 km), 64 levels |
0.36° x 0.36° |
| Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) |
NASA's GEOS-5 Model |
2/3° longitude x 0.5° latitude, 72 levels |
5/8° x 5/8° |
| Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) |
NASA's GEOS-5 Model |
5/8° longitude x 0.5° latitude, 72 levels |
5/8° x 5/8° |
| ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) |
ECMWF's IFS Version Cy31r2 |
T255 (˜ 80 km), 60 levels |
0.36° x 0.36° |
| Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) |
Japan Meteorological Agency's GSM Model (12/09) |
T319 (˜ 55 km), 60 levels |
1.25° x 1.25° |
| Precipitable Water |
2 meter Dew Point Temperature |
Mean Sea Level Pressure and 10 meter winds |
850 mb |
500 mb |
250 mb |
| 1.4-1.9" with values as high as 2" in the Western Gulf of Mexico |
62-74 °F with values as high as 76 °F in the Western Gulf of Mexico |
Converging 5-15 kt SE/E/NE winds indicates a likely boundary across S/SE TX. High pressure centered over the Carolinas produces a wide open Gulf of Mexico. |
˜10-20 kt S/SE LLJ originating from the Western Caribbean |
Trough NM/W TX to NW Mexico (CRP/VCT), Zonal flow with a Weak Trough over W TX (LRD) |
Trough NM to Central Mexico (CRP/VCT), Weak Trough W TX (LRD); Subtropical Jet (30-50 kt with 45-60 kt Jet Streak Ark-La-Tex Area) |
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