
Lake effect snow followed by upslope snow showers are expected to develop Thursday morning and persist through Thursday night, with total snow accumulations between 4 and 11 inches possible in the most persistent lake snow bands. Holiday travel could be very hazardous. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20251123_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 11/23 18Z 0.23 2209 98 85 -6 0.00
Sun 11/23 19Z 0.23 2209 97 92 -5 0.00
Sun 11/23 20Z 0.23 2209 98 92 -5 0.01
Sun 11/23 21Z 0.26 2309 98 92 -5 0.01
Sun 11/23 22Z 0.26 2309 98 93 -5 0.01
Sun 11/23 23Z 0.25 2508 98 87 -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 00Z 0.26 2608 97 78 -4 0.01
Mon 11/24 01Z 0.25 2708 96 71 -4 0.00
Mon 11/24 02Z 0.27 2809 95 78 -5 0.00
Mon 11/24 03Z 0.32 2810 95 77 -5 0.00
Mon 11/24 04Z 0.34 2911 95 77 -4 0.00
Mon 11/24 05Z 0.36 2912 95 78 -5 0.00
Mon 11/24 06Z 0.42 2913 96 80 -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 07Z 0.50 3015 97 79 -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 08Z 0.53 3017 98 81 -5 0.02
Mon 11/24 09Z 0.54 3018 98 80 -5 0.02
Mon 11/24 10Z 0.56 3120 98 74 -5 0.02
Mon 11/24 11Z 0.61 3122 97 65 -6 0.02
Mon 11/24 12Z 0.64 3123 97 54 -6 0.02
Mon 11/24 13Z 0.66 3123 97 46 -6 0.02
Mon 11/24 14Z 0.66 3123 97 54 -7 0.02
Mon 11/24 15Z 0.55 3122 95 48 -6 0.01
Mon 11/24 16Z 0.54 3120 95 22 -6 0.01
Mon 11/24 17Z 0.53 3018 95 3 -6 0.01
Mon 11/24 18Z 0.48 2917 91 2 -6 0.00
Mon 11/24 19Z 0.41 2917 82 8 -4 0.00
Mon 11/24 20Z 0.39 2918 72 11 -3 0.00
Mon 11/24 21Z 0.32 3018 59 24 -2 0.00
Mon 11/24 22Z 0.31 2918 48 34 0 0.00
Mon 11/24 23Z 0.33 2918 42 62 0 0.00
Tue 11/25 00Z 0.34 2818 35 73 0 0.00
Tue 11/25 01Z 0.36 2817 25 88 0 0.00
Tue 11/25 02Z 0.41 2718 20 91 1 0.00
Tue 11/25 03Z 0.44 2617 20 91 1 0.00
Tue 11/25 04Z 0.43 2518 15 91 1 0.00
Tue 11/25 05Z 0.51 2423 14 92 1 0.00
Tue 11/25 06Z 0.60 2427 14 86 1 0.00
Tue 11/25 07Z 0.67 2529 15 83 2 0.00
Tue 11/25 08Z 0.68 2529 15 83 2 0.00
Tue 11/25 09Z 0.68 2529 16 82 2 0.00
Tue 11/25 10Z 0.66 2627 17 85 2 0.00
Tue 11/25 11Z 0.63 2626 19 83 2 0.00
Tue 11/25 12Z 0.59 2624 25 74 1 0.00
Tue 11/25 13Z 0.52 2622 29 78 2 0.00
Tue 11/25 14Z 0.44 2518 31 85 2 0.00
Tue 11/25 15Z 0.37 2517 35 80 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 16Z 0.34 2417 37 71 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 17Z 0.34 2317 40 67 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 18Z 0.35 2318 42 70 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 19Z 0.33 2318 42 63 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 20Z 0.29 2316 43 58 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 21Z 0.28 2317 47 67 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 22Z 0.30 2317 49 67 3 0.00
Tue 11/25 23Z 0.30 2317 53 70 3 0.00
Wed 11/26 00Z 0.30 2317 61 70 3 0.00
Wed 11/26 01Z 0.30 2317 67 75 3 0.00
Wed 11/26 02Z 0.30 2217 70 91 3 0.01
Wed 11/26 03Z 0.27 2217 75 96 3 0.01
Wed 11/26 04Z 0.23 2116 80 98 3 0.01
Wed 11/26 05Z 0.18 2016 83 98 3 0.01
Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.28 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1