Flooding

Use this tab to monitor latest river levels along the Missouri River near Bismarck/Mandan

Hydrographs

Missouri River at Bismarck	Missouri River at Mandan	Heart River near Mandan	Apple Creek near Menoken

Radar/Photos

USGS Camera on Missouri River near Bismarck

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Latest Hydrologic Outlook

 

000
FGUS73 KBIS 261836
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053-
055-057-059-061-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-270245-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1236 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

This Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Missouri and James
River basins of North Dakota, covering the period of 30 November
through 28 February, 2026.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some
text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the
local hydrology. The second section gives the current and historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed
forecast locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk
of the river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
All forecast locations in the Missouri and James River basins across
North Dakota are near normal for this time of year.

...Snowpack Conditions...
A recent rain and snow event now has nearly all of the Missouri and
James River basins of North Dakota with a snow cover that contains
roughly 0.25-0.6 inches of Snow-Water Equivalent.

...The Missouri and Yellowstone rivers west of Williston...
The Missouri and Yellowstone rivers west of Williston are near
normal for this time of year.

...Current Drought Conditions...
Only a small slice of western Divide, Williams, and Mckenzie
counties have a DO (Abnormally Dry) drought designation.

...Reservoirs and Natural Wetlands...
While the dry spring runoff season was very detrimental to filling
reservoirs and natural wetlands, they have since fared better than
expected in this second half of the year with most having a near
normal water level for this time of year. This suggests that local
water storage will provide a normal amount of flood mitigation come
the spring melt season.

...Soil Conditions...
In general, soils across the state are slightly warmer than normal
for this time of year. However, soil moisture values tend to be
above normal west of Highway 83 and tend to fall to below normal
levels by the time one gets to the James River Basin.

...Weather Outlook...
The near term 6-10 and 8-14 day weather outlooks strongly favor
below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. Looking a
little farther into the future and the weeks 3-4 outlooks continue
to favor below normal temperatures with a slight favoring of above
normal precipitation. Not surprisingly, the full month outlooks for
December also favor below normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.

Looking even longer term, the 3-month outlooks covering December,
January, and February also favor below normal temperatures and above
normal precipitation. This is largely due to the known effects of a
La Nina climate pattern that is typically (but not always)
associated with wetter and cooler outcomes all the way into the
spring melt season.


In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 11/30/2025 - 02/28/2026

: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Pipestem
Pingree 11.0 13.0 15.0 : 7 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:James River
Grace City 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LaMoure 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
Williston 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cannonball River
Regent 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cannonball River
Breien 10.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Muddy River
Williston 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Medora 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Watford City 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Knife River
Manning 15.0 17.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Spring Creek
Zap 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Knife River
Hazen 21.0 24.0 25.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Heart River
Mandan 27.0 33.0 38.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken 15.0 16.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 11/30/2025 - 02/28/2026
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.8 10.3 11.0
:James River
Grace City 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.2 6.0 8.4 9.6
LaMoure 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.8 9.4
:Missouri River
Williston 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.4
:Cannonball River
Regent 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.8 7.2
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 0.6 1.4 2.3 2.9 3.4 3.9 5.1
:Cannonball River
Breien 2.4 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.6 7.1 9.4
:Beaver Creek
Linton 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.3 6.0 6.8 7.9
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.0 6.0
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.2 2.7 3.8 4.3
Medora 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.8 3.3 4.6 4.7
Watford City 7.3 7.3 7.6 8.3 8.8 9.9 11.2
:Knife River
Manning 6.2 6.2 6.2 7.1 7.3 7.6 7.9
:Spring Creek
Zap 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.6
:Knife River
Hazen 0.8 0.8 1.3 2.5 4.1 6.7 12.4
:Heart River
Mandan 9.4 9.4 9.8 10.7 13.0 14.8 16.8
:Apple Creek
Menoken 5.4 5.4 5.4 6.4 7.9 11.2 14.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 11/30/2025 - 02/28/2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4
:James River
Grace City 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
LaMoure 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5
:Missouri River
:Cannonball River
Regent 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
:Cannonball River
Breien 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
:Beaver Creek
Linton 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
Medora 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Watford City 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2
:Knife River
Manning 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
:Spring Creek
Zap 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
:Knife River
Hazen 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
:Heart River
Mandan 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2
:Apple Creek
Menoken 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued by the end of December.


$$

Schlag

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