Spring_Melt_Season_Update

...SPRING MELT SEASON UPDATE...

This Hydrologic Outlook provides general information on the
progression of the spring snowmelt season for western and central
North Dakota.

...Southwestern corner of the state, including the Little
Missouri, Knife, Heart, and Cannonball rivers and Beaver Creek...

Temperatures in the 40s and 50s will continue through Saturday.
These temperatures are going to increasingly eat away at the
remaining snowpack across these watersheds. Some of the headwaters
areas are already running low on snow based on webcams, satellite
images, and visual observations. Thus far no significant flooding
has been reported, but runoff and downstream river levels will
continue to increase through the coming weekend even as the
headwaters begin to run out of snow early this weekend. Minor
overland flooding cannot be ruled out. In particular, Beaver Creek
still has a robust snowpack remaining in Montana and Golden
Valley county.


...Northwestern corner of the state, including Long Creek, Little
Muddy River, along with the Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers west
of Williston...

Long Creek has a below normal risk of flooding over the coming
days, however, both the Little Muddy and White Earth rivers are
expected to rise substantially through the weekend as the
remaining snow melts and runoff increases. The same is expected
for the other small streams that flow into Lake Sakakawea
throughout Mountrail, McLean, Mckenzie, Dunn and Mercer counties.
While most are likely to run out of meltwater before they reach
problematic levels, high water along these small streams cannot be
ruled out.


...Souris (Mouse) River Basin...

Relatively low risk of problematic high water exists above Minot
on the Souris River. Souris River flood risks rise to near normal
from Logan on down through Velva, and to above normal from Towner
up through Westhope. However, temperatures in the Souris River
Basin will continue to encourage a very modest melt rate and this
will also temper runoff coming out of the coulees, the Des Lacs
and other tributaries of the Souris.


...Central and South Central North Dakota...

Runoff from melting snow is expected to start making its
appearance in the small streams east of the Missouri River, this
includes the streams of Painted Woods, Burnt, Apple, and Beaver
creeks. Thus far the snowmelt in the western part of these
streams has been very orderly and without problems. This may
change as the melt increasingly affects the eastern parts of these
watersheds where there is generally a greater amount of water in
the snow. Minor overland flooding and rapid rises in these streams
are possible going through the upcoming weekend. However, cooler
temperatures on Sunday and Monday should help moderate the runoff
for a period of time and temper the eventual peak water levels.


...James River Basin...

The upper James River basin remains relatively insulated from the
warm weather and is not likely to see much runoff for several more
days. A robust snowpack below Jamestown is awaiting warm
temperatures which will eventually bring a high probability of
overland flooding and high water in all of the areas small
streams. Partially due to lower temperatures than those of points
farther west and partially due to a heavier snowpack, the melt
season is not yet in full swing for the James River basin of North
Dakota. Runoff may commence over the coming few days, but it will
most likely be next week before significant runoff begins.