Bismarck, ND

Weather Forecast Office

Christmas Blizzard of 2016

Overview

The week before Christmas, global weather models were in remarkable agreement with regards to a major winter storm developing around Christmas somewhere in the Northern Plains. Run to run model consistency led to higher confidence than usual for heavy snowfall accumulations and strong winds across most of western and central North Dakota. Because of the higher confidence and an approaching holiday weekend, the Bismarck NWS office, along with other neighboring offices, issued blizzard watches and warnings well before the typical time frame. The GFS model in particular was suggesting record precipitable water values in the forecast sounding over Bismarck. High precipitable water values over the region during the snowfall season means a higher abundance of available moisture than usual. In general, most locations across western and central North Dakota received anywhere from 12 to 18 inches of snow with isolated higher amounts. However, in the southeast part of the Bismarck forecast area (Stutsman, Dickey, LaMoure, McIntosh, Emmons, and Logan Counties), heavy freezing rain caused major ice accumulations which created widespread power outages and numerous downed trees. Gusty winds up to 60 mph, heavy snow/ice accumulations, and extreme snow drifts created very difficult, if not impossible, travel until well into the day of 12/27/2016. Finally, this storm was so intense that it generated quite a bit of "thundersnow" over parts of central North Dakota.

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NWS Bismarck Weather Story on the Morning of 12/25/2016	Highest Snowfall Total Years Through the Month of December	First NWS Bismarck Weather Story About a Potential Winter Storm, Posted on 12/19/2016

Extreme Snow Drifts and Blizzard Conditions in Bismarck, North Dakota (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)

Photos & Video
Radar
Storm Reports
Environment

Photos & Video:

Videos:

Weather Balloon Launch in Blizzard Conditions:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMZYhRZxLXU&feature=youtu.be

Blizzard Conditions at the Capitol Grounds in Bismarck, ND:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xoT8wvMRRY

Thundersnow and Blizzard Timelapse:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2N2Om-D4f0&t=1s

Photos:

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Large Snowplow Walls (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)	Large Snow Drifts (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)	Snowed In (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)	Large Snow Drifts (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)

Blizzard Conditions Capitol Grounds (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)	Large Snow Drifts (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)	Digging Out (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)	Large Snowplow Walls (Photo Courtesy of Zachary Hargrove)

Ice Covered Trees on I-94 (Photo Courtesy of Janine Vining	Ice Covered Trees on I-94 (Photo Courtesy of Janine Vining)	Ice Covered Interstate 94 (Photo Courtesy of Janine Vining)	One of our Meteorologists Making the Knee Deep Walk Back from Launching the Weather Balloon (Photo Courtesy of William Abeling)

Snow Covered Parking Lot in Bismarck (Photo Courtesy of Christina Marie)	Progression of the Clean-up of a Snow Covered Parking Lot in Bismarck (Photo Courtesy of Christina Marie)	Further Progression of the Clean-up of a Snow Covered Parking Lot in Bismarck (Photo Courtesy of Christina Marie)	Large Snow Piles in Bismarck, ND (Photo Courtesy of Christina Marie)

Snow Blowing the Sidewalk at the NWS Bismarck Office (Photo Courtesy of Jeff Savadel)	NWS Bismarck During the Blizzard (Photo Courtesy of Jeff Savadel)	Large Snow Piles in Bismarck, ND (Photo Courtesy of Christina Marie)	Large Snow Drift in Golden Valley, ND (Photo Courtesy of Alesha Marie)

Radar:

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Radar Loop from 6am to 6pm on 12/25/2017	Radar Loop from 6pm on 12/25/2017 to 6am on 12/26/2017

Storm Reports:

Snow Report Locations	Amounts	Wind Report Locations	Highest Gusts (mph)
Southwest Minot Sherwood 2 ENE Grassy Butte Underwood 6 E New Hradec Dickinson Watford City Northwest Minot Hazen Wilton Lansford 2 NE Towner Pick City Mandan 2 E Rhame NWS Bismarck 1 NNW Hettinger 7 NE Dickinson New Salem Harvey 2 N Williston Lignite Beulah Glen Ullin Columbus 1 WSW Hannover 2 NNW Ray New Town Westhope Flasher Garrison Bottineau Glenburn Wildrose	22.0 in 20.0 in 18.5 in 18.0 in 17.0 in 16.5 in 16.0 in 16.0 in 16.0 in 15.0 in 15.0 in 14.0 in 13.5 in 13.2 in 13.0 in 12.5 in 12.5 in 12.0 in 12.0 in 12.0 in 12.0 in 12.0 in 12.0 in 11.0 in 11.0 in 11.0 in 10.0 in 10.0 in 10.0 in 9.0 in 9.0 in 8.6 in 8.0 in 7.0 in	Belcourt 4 SW Denhoff Hettinger Municipal Airport Glen Ullin Rgnl Dunseith 2 NE Sterling Garrison 4 S Mandan 1 NNW Washburn Jamestown Airport (kjms) NWS Bismarck 5 SSW Bowman 1 ENE Golden Valley Rugby Airport (krug) Dickinson Municipal Airport 1 WNW New Salem 2 ESE Tioga 2 WNW Bismarck 30 W Crosby Minot Air Force Base Rolla Airport (k06d) Carrington Airport (k46d) Minot International Airport 1 NE Gladstone 1 SW Stanley 2 E Hazen 4 ENE New Hradec Coleharbor 2 ESE Blaisdell 3 W Rugby 4 Bears Lodge Stanton 1 NNW Crosby 1 WSW Hannover 4 S Glenburn 6 N Bismarck Williston Sloulin Field 1 S Center 1 ENE Beach 2 W Ray 3 SE Ambrose Sand Creek 1 E Watford City	62 56 56 56 55 55 53 53 52 52 49 48 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 46 45 45 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 42 42 41 40 40 39 38 37 35 35

Environment:

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Synoptically, everything fell into place for this to become an historic winter storm. As a trough of low pressure made landfall on the west coast of the United States it began to deepen and amplify near the Four Corners region. It was at this time that the mid-level cyclone began to close off and intensify, while also taking on a negative tilt. At the surface, a low formed on the lee side of the Colorado Rockies (making this a classic "Colorado Low" scenario), and began to deepen as it moved into southern South Dakota and eventually into northern Minnesota. Strong winds at the low levels provided efficient transport for copious amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture to stream into the Northern Plains. By Christmas night, a strong jet streak at the 300 mb level of over 120 knots was entering South Dakota. This jet stream structure put most of North Dakota in the left exit region, promoting very strong upper level divergence and upward motion.


Figure 1: Surface Analysis at 21z on 12/25/2017	Figure 2: 300 mb Analysis at 00z on 12/26/2017. Heights, Divergence, and Windspeed	Figure 3: 500 mb Analysis at 00z on 12/26/2017. Heights, Temperatures, and Windspeed

As the storm began to wrap up and the surface low began to deepen (to sub-990 mb levels), a strong low level jet intensified, advecting warm moist Gulf of Mexico air north and west. Increasing temperatures aloft and the very moist air mass worked together to allow steeper mid-level lapse rates and instability to creep into parts of south central North Dakota. The Storm Prediction Center caught these trends early in the day on the morning of the 25th, and highlighted most of North Dakota in the general thunderstorm area. On the night of the 25th, numerous lightning strikes occurred during intense snowfall across parts of central North Dakota. Additionally, the increasing temperatures aloft and increasing critical thickness values promoted heavy freezing rain and sleet production over parts of northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota. Significant icing was reported in these areas.


Figure 4: Analyzed Surface Pressure and Surface Winds at 04z on 12/26/2017	Figure 5: Mid-level Lapse Rates at 04z on 12/26/2017	Figure 6: SPC Convective Outlook from 06z on 12/25/2016

Figure 7: Critical Thickness Values at 06z on 12/25/2017	Figure 8: Critical Thickness Values at 01z on 12/26/2017	Figure 9: 850mb Heights and Temperatures at 23z on 12/25/2017