Albany, NY

Weather Forecast Office

25th Anniversary: May 31st, 1998 - Severe Outbreak

Overview
Photos & Video
Radar
Storm Reports
Environment

Overview

On Sunday, May 31, 1998, a severe weather outbreak occurred across the northeast United States. The severe thunderstorms produced 20 tornadoes within a two hour drive of Albany, NY, along with hundreds of damaging wind and large hail reports. This was an extreme severe weather event by Northeastern standards, similar to events that occur in the Great Plains of the United States. This outbreak is locally known for the F3 Mechanicville, NY tornado, but there were three additional tornadoes confirmed in the Albany forecast area.

There were five fatalities and 127 injuries associated with 32 tornadoes across the Northeast. Additionally, there were 264 reports of wind damage and 84 reports of hail (3/4" or larger). Sixty-eight people were injured in the Mechanicville tornado alone. It is believed that accurate and timely severe weather outlooks, tornado watches and tornado warnings contributed to no lives being lost in the Albany forecast area. Many people who survived the tornadoes, when interviewed, stated that they had received the watches and warnings and took shelter when they saw the storms approach.

Severe weather was anticipated the day before by the Albany National Weather Service (NWS) office, who issued statements on Saturday afternoon outlining the potential for significant severe weather the next day. Additionally, a Special Weather Statement (SPS) was issued on Sunday at 10:17 AM emphasizing the event, with a follow-up SPS issued at noon highlighting “This is a dangerous situation.” This would be the second large severe weather event in three days. The local area was hit by severe weather on May 29, 1998.

On May 31, 1998, the Albany NWS forecast area was in a “High Risk” for severe weather as defined by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. SPC has been issuing severe weather outlooks since the mid-1950s. This is the only time the Albany forecast area has been put in a “High Risk”. It hadn’t happened before, it hasn’t happed since. At 2:45 PM, SPC issued a tornado watch for most of New York.

About half of the office staff (12 people) was on duty that Sunday. This included an electronic technician to help ensure equipment functionality, and someone to operate amateur radio and provide emergency communications. The NWS office in Albany lost both power and telephone communications at times during the event. The NOAA Weather Radio in New Scotland, NY was knocked off the air by storms. Some EAS activation was done by local television and radio stations. Some warnings were relayed to county EOCs by amateur radio due to communication outages.

Straight line wind damage occurred in most of NWS Albany's County Warning Area. The severe storms resulted in tens of millions of dollars in damage to homes and businesses, and extensive forest damage. Power was out to over 130,000 customers at the storm's peak, while 12,000 were without power for over three days. Cloud to ground lightning rates over the region reached 15,000 strikes per hour and fires started by lightning were reported. Despite all the severe storms rumbling around, no flash floods were reported in the NWS Albany forecast area.

A lot has changed since that day in 1998. At that time, the NWS issued severe weather warnings by county. The NWS no longer issues warnings by county, but rather by polygons that are much smaller, and based on the size, speed and movement of storms. Pathcasts (lists of towns in the storm’s path) were manually created by a forecaster looking at a map in 1998. Today, the pathcasts are software generated once a forecaster outlines the polygon where severe weather is expected.

In 1998, the warning process could take many minutes since the forecaster had to manually type out the warning after the warning decision was made. Today, software allows the NWS forecaster to issue a warning in less than a minute from the time the warning decision is made. Finally, in 1998, the warnings had to be manually read and recorded for playback on NOAA Weather Radio. Today, software translates NWS warning text into speech for airplay.

The devastating impacts from the severe weather of May 31, 1998 underscore the need for everyone to have a severe weather safety plan. Whether at work, school, home, place of worship, or outdoors, you should know how you will receive severe weather warnings, and where you will shelter when severe weather approaches. For more information on severe weather preparedness, visit www.weather.gov/safety/tornado

Please see the link below for a comprehensive summary of the event: Natural Disaster Survey Report - NWS Albany

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook. Only High Risk ever issued for the Northeast US.

Photos & Video:


Aerial imagery of the Mechanicville tornado damage	Aerial imagery of the Mechanicville tornado damage	Aerial imagery of the Mechanicville tornado damage	Tornado damage


Tornado damage	Tornado damage	Tornado damage	Tornado damage

Thanks to...
Carl Cerniglia...various damage photographs.
Mark McKinley...various damage photographs.
John Quinlan...Storm information and various damage photographs.
Dick Westergard

Dan O'Brien...New York State Emergency Management Office
New York State Emergency Management Office

All NYS Emergency Management Office photographs were supplied with support from...
Aerial Images...Landcare Aviation, INC.
Aerial Sensor...TASC/EMERGE

Photographs produced by Mark McKinley were generated with aerial support from the New York State Police Aviation Unit, Arrangement courtesy of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation.

Radar:


Loop from KENX radar starting 9:17 am 31 May 1998 and ending 1:00 am 1 June 1998	Storm-relative velocity image from KENX radar at 2022Z (4:22 pm EDT) 31 May 1998 showing the storm rotation as the tornado touched down	Normalized rotation (Nrot) image from KENX radar at 2023Z (4:23 pm EDT) 31 May 1998 showing the storm rotation as the tornado touched down

Storm Reports


All severe weather reports	Severe hail reports	Severe wind reports	Tornado reports

Mechanicville tornado track map

Preliminary damage report. This is not an all inclusive

list, rather it is a general list of damage reports

received by NWSFO Albany. (This list was last updated

at 700 pm June 3, 1998)

COUNTY TIME Location - Severe event

Herkimer (S) 338 Frankfort,Dolgeville,

Cedarville - trees down

Montgomery 342 Fonda - trees down

344 Amsterdam -tornado west

Herkimer (S) 345 Mohawk - wind damage

Fulton 345 Gloversville - Trees and wires down

3 houses / 2 cars damaged, some

may have occurred in later storms

Saratoga 415 Milton - 1" hail

416 Mechanicville - 60 mph

425-435 Stillwater - F2 - F3 Ttornado

Extensive structural damage

28 injured sent to hospital

40 injured treated on scene

20 homes destroyed

25 homes with severe damage

10+ with moderate damage

420 Saratoga Springs - 1.75' hail

425-435 Mechanicville - tornado

435 Malta, Ballston Spa .75" hail

Schoharie (N) 410 Schoharie Village

430 Blenheim - trees down (time aprx)

432 Middleburg - wind damage

Albany 438 Bethlehem Center - wind damage

440 Albany Airport - 82 mph gust

450 Colonie - wind damage

Schenectady 450 Rotterdam - trees down

450 Schenecaty - trees down

Washington 430 Southern portion - trees down

445-500 White Creek - F1 Tornado

Bennington 432 Arlington - trees down

455 N Bennington - F1 Tornado

505 Bennington - trees down

Rennselaer (N) 445 East of Hoosic Falls- F2 Tornado

at NY and VT border

450 Schaghticoke - trees down

Trailers flipped over

Damage also at Hoosick, Pittstown

500 Brunswick - trees down

505 E. Green bush -trees down

Albany 438 Bethlehem Ctr. - wind damage

440 Albany Airport - gusts 82 mph

440-445 Colonie - F0 Tornado

2 mile path length. Discontiuous

wind damage. Funnel cloud

obsevered by FAA personel.

450 Colonie - trees down

Schoharie 430 Blenheim - trees down

Schenectady 450 Rotterdam - trees down

450 Schenectady - tree down

Saratoga 450 Mechanicville - trees down

Greene 500 Greenville - quarter size hail

Windam 542 Brattleboro - tornado observed

Columbia 510 Stuyvesant - 0.75" hail

510 Kinderhook- trees down

520 Chatham - trees down

526 Niverville - tree on house

531 Stuyvesant -1" hail

Berkshire 545 Pittsfield - 1.75" hail

Rensselaer 535 Nassua - trees down

Herkimer 625 Mohawk - trees down

Fulton 630 Gloversville - Trees and wires down

Montgomery 620-630 Root, Ames, Fort Plain

Fonda, Amsterdam, Charleston -

trees down

Schoharie 635 Richmonville - roof damage

645 Blenheim - dime size hail

647 Breekabeen

Saratoga 708 Mechanicville - wind damage

Schenecrady 700 Duanesburg - trees down

Albany 716 Guilderland - tornado observed

708 Clarksville - tree down

711 New Scotland

Greene 733 Greenville - tree d

745 Catskill - dime size hail

Rennselaer 725 East Schodack - F2 Tornado

4 miles of tree damage.

2 barns destroyed

2 homes with severe damage

742 Stephentown - wind damage

Bennington 715 W Shaftsbury - 0.88 - 1.75" hail

Washington 735 Greenwich - numerous trees down

Albany 730 New Scotland - trees down

Schoharie 735 Schoharie- widespread damage

Ulster 800 Saugerties and other locations

Wires down

Time uncertain

Windham 755 Brattleboro - wind damage

Columbia 830 Hillsdale - wind damage

Berkshire 755 N.Adams - gusts 70 mph

800 Great Barrington - hail

803 Pittsfield - wind damage

Greene 823 Catskill - 0.75" hail

827 Catskill - 1.0" hail

Bennington 830 Pownal, Shaftsbury - trees down

Ulster 900 Gardiner and other locations

Wires down - time uncertain

Columbia 900 Copake - trees down

Berkshire 940 South Lee - wind damage

Ulster 900 Gardiner and other locations

Wires down - time uncertain

Dutchess 900-1000 Widespread reports of

downed trees, including towns of

Rhinebeck, Red Hook, Clinton

Corners, Stanford, Wappingers

Litchfield 950 New Milford - large limbs down

Environment

Meteorological Background by Warren Snyder, former NWS Albany Science and Operations Officer

In the morning hours Sunday, May 31, 1998 a warm front moved rapidly north across New York and Western New England. During the day, upper level divergence rapidly increased, the 850 hPa jet increased to over 50 kts, and helicity values increased to 500 to 800 m^2 sec^-2 in the highly sheared environment. Low level moisture increased rapidly as dew points rose from 8C to 22C during the day, resulting in rapid atmospheric destabilization.

During the morning of the 31st, a derecho moved across southern Ontario and decayed as it moved into the Adirondacks. It established boundaries which focused later convection. During the afternoon a cold front pressed south into western New York and a series of lines of thunderstorms formed ahead of it.

Thunderstorms developed explosively as they moved east across the region. Several of these storms became tornadic. The most long lived tornadic thunderstorm produced a series of tornadoes starting with an F3 tornado that moved across the Saratoga County communities of Stillwater and Mechanicville, and moved into the Rensselaer County town of Schaghticoke. The tornado continued east across Hoosick Falls into the Washington County town of White Creek and into Bennington County, Vermont. It was mainly an F2 and skipped occasionally from Rensselaer county into Vermont.

An F2 tornado occurred in East Schodack, while an F1 tornado occurred across the Albany International Airport.

The tornadoes of May 31, 1998 were caused by scattered supercell thunderstorms along a squall line in a highly sheared environment. Most of the other severe thunderstorm wind damage was associated a series of squall lines which moved across the region at speeds of 40 to 60 mph.

Research:

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