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Overview

After a nearly snowless period of almost 3 years, January 10-11, 2025 marked the second winter storm to impact the Wakefield CWA in less than a week. Cold air remained in place and even though the low-level flow was out of the south to southwest through most of the event, snow was the predominant precipitation type across the northern 2/3 of the area. Precipitation moved in during the evening of 1/10 and it was initially all snow (except across coastal NE NC) as temperatures dropped to the 28-31F range area-wide and the column was below freezing. However, temperatures from 925-700mb were only a couple degrees below freezing and with deep layered SW flow, this would create p-type issues later in the event. Initially (through about 12-1 AM), there was moderate to strong lift in the dendritic growth zone (which was around 500mb thanks to relatively high 850-700mb thicknesses). A widespread 1-3 inches of snow fell across most areas near and south of the I-64 corridor (including Hampton Roads) from 8 PM through 1 AM.

Then, the forcing for ascent in the DGZ moved offshore and some drier air moved in around 500-600mb. However, a band of strong 850-700mb frontogenesis overspread the area after 1 AM as sfc low pressure begun to deepen just off the Carolina coast. In addition, mesoanalysis showed a strong (50-60+ knot) 850mb jet across eastern NC during the early morning hours of 1/11 (which makes sense given the above mentioned FGen fields). This resulted in a second round of moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation. However, with the drying above 600mb and WAA thanks to the strong low-level jet, precipitation was a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain south of an Emporia-Wakefield-Williamsburg line after 130-230 AM. Note that precip had already changed to liquid across far SE VA and all of NE NC before this time. Interestingly, radar (thanks to the Correlation Coefficient product) showed that snow began to change to a wintry mix across southern Dinwiddie County by 130 AM and that eventually spread east and southeast over the next hour. Usually, precipitation changes from snow to rain from S/SE to N/NW at a steady pace during "snow to rain" type events in our area. Also, the snow/mix/rain line was a bit farther north than some of the guidance/forecasts had anticipated. This obviously cut down on snow totals in SE VA. After examining forecast soundings and mesoanalysis, this could have been due to one (or both) of the following reasons:

1) Cloud ice introduction was lost (note the drying observed in the soundings above the -10C layer.

2) The strong low-level jet was able to advect the thin, +1-2C warm nose farther north than the guidance had anticipated.

Precipitation quickly moved offshore after 5-6 AM. The highest snow totals (3.5-5.5”) were observed from the south-central VA Piedmont to the southern Richmond Metro to Williamsburg to the VA Eastern Shore (where the heavier precip stayed in the form of snow). A widespread 1-3” was observed farther south and north of this area. Little to no snow fell in extreme SE VA and much of NE NC.

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