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Severe Thunderstorms in the East Sunday; Excessive Heat Lingers in the Southern U.S. and Returning to California

Scattered damaging winds from severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States Sunday. Excessive heat will continue over the southern U.S. Sunday before another round of heat arrives Monday through the central and southern U.S. spreading into the East by Independence Day. California will see excessive heat starting Tuesday. Read More >

Overview

After a relatively quiet first half of July, it became quite active across the area as the large-scale weather pattern shifted.  A 500hPa trough slowly dropped southeast as it amplified over the eastern third of the country from 7/19 to 7/21. The first wave of rain moved into eastern VA/MD/NC on the evening of the 20th as a potent shortwave quickly tracked northward along the east side of the trough.  The rain lasted into the 21st before ending. While 1 to 4 inches of rain was observed (mainly along and east of Interstate 95), flooding was minor (at most) as the area had been relatively dry during the previous two weeks.

A front set up and was slowly moving northward on July 22nd. With MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and 30 to 40 knot mid level flow, a cluster of thunderstorms (which downed a few trees) formed just north of the boundary Sunday afternoon. As they were relatively fast-moving, flooding was kept to a minimum.  As the upper level trough amplified (and started to stall) Sunday night-Monday, the flow became (nearly) unidirectional out of the S/SSE on Mon/Tue. This allowed for tropical moisture to stream in from the south. PW values were between 2 and 2.3” throughout the event (~90th Percentile values for late July). Several bands of moderate to heavy rain to streamed northward from Sunday night through Wednesday. The stream of tropical moisture finally shifted offshore late Wednesday as the sfc-500hPa flow slowly veered to the SW.

See the attached radar images for a more detailed timeline. While rainfall rates were mainly relatively modest (compared to the 4+"/hour observed at the Richmond ASOS on 6/22), the duration of the rain allowed for flooding to widespread areal flooding to occur over SE VA/NE NC. The Sandbridge, Back Bay, and Pungo sections of Virginia Beach County (in addition to Currituck County) were especially hard hit (where some roads were closed for multiple days). Areal Flood Warnings were in effect for the bulk of the period from Tuesday through Thursday morning for VA Beach/Currituck counties (where the most significant impacts were). Some flooding was observed in other parts of NE NC, the VA Northern Neck, and Dorchester County (MD). See photos for more information.

Hydrograph

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