Overview
Sally made landfall near the Alabama-Florida border as a hurricane early Wednesday morning (9/16). Sally then slowly tracked to the northeast through southern Alabama on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a large trough aloft was centered across the eastern half of Canada with the base of the trough extending southward from the Midwest to the northern Mid-Atlantic. Sally started to accelerate and turn more to the ENE Wednesday night into Thursday morning (as it approached the Carolinas) when it started to get picked up by the larger trough. Additionally, a rather strong cold front (for the last days of summer) was starting to drop toward the Mid-Atlantic from the north (but would remain north of the local area through the day on Thursday). Sally already had a history of producing extreme amounts of rainfall across Florida, Alabama, and Georgia before any rain started to move into the local area.
By the middle of Thursday morning, a large area of moderate rain had overspread most of the AKQ forecast area (and even areas of western VA). 250 mb analysis noted a 90-100 knot jet streak developing across PA that was moving to the east-northeast (while strengthening) during the day on Thursday. Much of our area was situated in the rear right quadrant of the jet streak, which is one of the regions favorable for large-scale ascent. This in addition to the strong deep-layer moisture advection was responsible (in part) for the fact that moderate rain continued throughout much of the area through Thursday afternoon. By early Thursday evening, a few flooding issues were reported in and around Richmond due to 2 to locally 3 inches of rain. By the middle of the evening, post-tropical cyclone Sally was tracking ENE through the central Carolinas while the cold front was approaching northern portions of the forecast area. There was actually a slight decrease in the average rainfall intensity from about 9 PM through midnight. From midnight through about 6 AM, the cold front crossed most of the region and was south of all areas except for coastal NE NC. During this time, Sally continued to accelerate to the ENE and moved to a position to near the NC Outer Banks. As it interacted with the approaching front, the thermal gradient from the surface to just above 850 mb tightened in a WSW-ENE oriented corridor near to just NW of the center of the storm (roughly from Emporia VA-Hampton Roads). This resulted in strengthening frontogenesis from the surface to just above the 850 mb layer across portions of south and SE VA. Combined with an environment with PWs of ~2.3", this resulted in a narrow, but intense band of rain moving across south/SE VA from midnight-5 AM Friday morning (9/18). While the heaviest rain only lasted 3-4 hours at any one location, rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour were observed at times. Combined with the rain that fell earlier in the day, numerous instances of flash flooding were observed from southern Brunswick County to Wakefield to Hampton Roads. The heavy rain quickly came to an end by 6-7 AM as Sally pulled offshore. Generally 3 to 6 inches of rain fell across central/southern VA, with lesser amounts across far NW and SE portions of the forecast area. There were a few locally higher totals in the 6-7" range. The very heavy rainfall resulted in river flooding issues across our forecast area (that are currently ongoing), particularly in the Meherrin, Blackwater, and Nottoway River basins.
Flooding
Hydrographs and Streamflow Images
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| Loop of CREST Unit Streamflow Values from the Operational MRMS v1.1 FLASH (left) and the Experimental MRMS FLASH v1.2 (right). |
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| Nottoway River near Sebrell | Blackwater River near Franklin | Chickahominy River near Providence Forge |
Photos
Flooding Photos
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| Flooding in Dam Neck area of VA Beach (source: Virginian Pilot) |
Flooding in Newport News (source: Virginian Pilot) |
Flooding in Ghent (City of Norfolk) (source: Virginian Pilot) |
Radar
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| Radar Loop from 11 PM on 9/17/20 to 5:30 AM on 9/18/20 in approximately 30 minute increments |
Storm Reports
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 919 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon ...Maryland... ...Dorchester County... Toddville 3.08 in 0826 AM 09/18 38.31N/76.08W ...Somerset County... Princess Anne 2.1 SSW 2.01 in 0700 AM 09/18 38.17N/75.71W Deal Island 0.5 SSW 1.68 in 0700 AM 09/18 38.15N/75.95W ...Worcester County... Ocean Pines 1.2 SSW 1.54 in 0700 AM 09/18 38.37N/75.16W Ocean City 1.50 in 0813 AM 09/18 38.32N/75.12W ...North Carolina... ...Camden County... South Mills 1.90 in 0833 AM 09/18 36.45N/76.30W ...Chowan County... Edenton 2.67 in 0829 AM 09/18 36.02N/76.48W ...Currituck County... Grandy 0.6 E 1.93 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.24N/75.87W ...Gates County... Corapeake 0.7 N 2.80 in 0800 AM 09/18 36.54N/76.57W ...Hertford County... Murfreesboro 1 NE 3.44 in 0600 AM 09/18 36.45N/77.08W Ahoskie Tri Coun 2.29 in 0815 AM 09/18 36.28N/77.17W ...Northampton County... Henrico 6.59 in 0616 AM 09/18 36.54N/77.86W ...Pasquotank County... Elizabeth City Airport 2.23 in 0823 AM 09/18 36.27N/76.18W Elizabeth City 5.1 SSE 2.11 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.22N/76.20W ...Perquimans County... Hertford 2.15 in 0815 AM 09/18 36.16N/76.32W Hertford 1.87 in 0815 AM 09/18 36.11N/76.43W ...Virginia... ...Accomack County... Onley 0.6 SE 2.55 in 0800 AM 09/18 37.68N/75.71W ...Brunswick County... Lawrenceville 4.44 in 0615 AM 09/18 36.78N/77.80W South Hill Meckl 4.13 in 0615 AM 09/18 36.68N/78.03W South Hill Meckl 3.99 in 0815 AM 09/18 36.68N/78.03W ...Charles City County... Charles City County 3.26 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.42N/77.20W Charles City County 3.26 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.42N/77.20W ...Chesterfield County... Chesterfield 4.30 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.34N/77.64W Chesterfield 4.21 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.32N/77.49W Chesterfield 4.19 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.32N/77.49W Winterpock 3.78 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.34N/77.64W Chester 6.6 E 3.73 in 0736 AM 09/18 37.36N/77.32W Midlothian 4.7 SSW 3.61 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.44N/77.67W Midlothian 3.57 in 0615 AM 09/18 37.38N/77.64W Matoaca 3.09 in 0826 AM 09/18 37.29N/77.48W Moseley 3.05 in 0817 AM 09/18 37.42N/77.71W Bon Air 2.4 WNW 2.83 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.54N/77.61W ...City of Chesapeake County... Greenbrier 5.84 in 0835 AM 09/18 36.79N/76.22W Deep Creek 5.59 in 0645 AM 09/18 36.75N/76.34W Chesapeake 7.3 NE 4.85 in 0800 AM 09/18 36.75N/76.21W Chesapeake 4.84 in 0630 AM 09/18 36.73N/76.34W Chesapeake 3.8 NNW 4.51 in 0800 AM 09/18 36.73N/76.34W 3 SSW Deep Creek 4.46 in 0825 AM 09/18 36.70N/76.36W 3 SSW Deep Creek 4.45 in 0625 AM 09/18 36.70N/76.36W Chesapeake 4.36 in 0817 AM 09/18 36.69N/76.21W Chesapeake 4.34 in 0617 AM 09/18 36.69N/76.21W Chesapeake 7.9 NE 4.27 in 0600 AM 09/18 36.76N/76.21W Chesapeake 4.04 in 0828 AM 09/18 36.67N/76.30W Deep Creek 4.00 in 0345 AM 09/18 36.75N/76.34W Chesapeake 3.98 in 0623 AM 09/18 36.67N/76.30W Fentress Naval 3.96 in 0607 AM 09/18 36.70N/76.13W ...City of Colonial Heights County... Colonial Heights 0.3 ENE 4.15 in 0807 AM 09/18 37.27N/77.39W ...City of Franklin County... Franklin 0.5 ESE 3.55 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.68N/76.93W ...City of Hampton County... Hampton 4.44 in 0829 AM 09/18 37.08N/76.30W Hampton 8.1 W 3.85 in 0600 AM 09/18 37.06N/76.44W ...City of Hopewell County... 1 NE Hopewell 3.39 in 0630 AM 09/18 37.30N/77.29W ...City of Newport News County... Newport News 4.99 in 0827 AM 09/18 37.12N/76.53W Newport News 4.33 in 0829 AM 09/18 37.13N/76.50W Newport News 4.23 in 0618 AM 09/18 37.13N/76.50W Newport News 2.5 ESE 4.03 in 0650 AM 09/18 37.06N/76.47W 1 NW Menchville 3.90 in 0829 AM 09/18 37.11N/76.54W Newport News 9.6 NNW 3.78 in 0445 AM 09/18 37.20N/76.58W Newport News 2.7 ESE 3.68 in 0600 AM 09/18 37.06N/76.47W Newport News 3.3 E 3.59 in 0500 AM 09/18 37.08N/76.45W Newport News 3.24 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.09N/76.46W ...City of Norfolk County... Norfolk Intl Airport 5.25 in 0816 AM 09/18 36.90N/76.20W Norfolk NAS Cham 5.16 in 0830 AM 09/18 36.92N/76.27W Norfolk NAS Cham 5.12 in 0559 AM 09/18 36.92N/76.27W Norfolk 5.05 in 0829 AM 09/18 36.92N/76.23W Norfolk 5.02 in 0629 AM 09/18 36.92N/76.23W Norfolk 5.0 SSW 4.80 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.86N/76.29W Norfolk 4.61 in 0816 AM 09/18 36.90N/76.26W Norfolk 4.57 in 0618 AM 09/18 36.90N/76.26W Ghent 3.92 in 0829 AM 09/18 36.86N/76.30W Tampa 3.91 in 0825 AM 09/18 36.87N/76.30W Norfolk 3.47 in 0831 AM 09/18 36.89N/76.26W ...City of Poquoson County... Poquoson 4.25 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.14N/76.40W ...City of Portsmouth County... 1 E Western Branch 5.05 in 0655 AM 09/18 36.82N/76.38W Portsmouth 4.81 in 0743 AM 09/18 36.80N/76.33W 1 NW Cradock 4.80 in 0706 AM 09/18 36.80N/76.33W Portsmouth 4.1 SSE 4.80 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.80N/76.33W ...City of Richmond County... Richmond 1.1 SE 3.25 in 0812 AM 09/18 37.52N/77.46W Richmond 2.8 N 2.80 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.57N/77.48W Richmond 1.5 NNW 2.59 in 0742 AM 09/18 37.55N/77.48W ...City of Suffolk County... Portsmouth 4.0 WNW 6.43 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.89N/76.42W Suffolk 6.12 in 0629 AM 09/18 36.89N/76.42W Portsmouth 5.1 WNW 5.18 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.88N/76.44W Suffolk 13.9 NNE 5.08 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.89N/76.53W Suffolk 4.80 in 0616 AM 09/18 36.87N/76.50W 1 NNE Huntersville 4.48 in 0825 AM 09/18 36.89N/76.42W Suffolk 3.1 NNW 4.33 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.74N/76.67W Suffolk 4.12 in 0615 AM 09/18 36.88N/76.48W Suffolk 2.9 NNW 3.82 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.74N/76.66W Suffolk 3.75 in 0615 AM 09/18 36.68N/76.60W Gdr 3.14 in 0726 AM 09/18 36.61N/76.55W ...City of Virginia Beach County... Virginia Beach 6.21 in 0816 AM 09/18 36.82N/76.20W Virginia Beach 6.18 in 0825 AM 09/18 36.77N/76.04W Virginia Beach 6.13 in 0615 AM 09/18 36.82N/76.20W Virginia Beach 2.4 N 6.11 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.77N/76.04W Virginia Beach 6.07 in 0629 AM 09/18 36.77N/76.04W Virginia Beach 5.24 in 0825 AM 09/18 36.78N/76.14W Virginia Beach 6.0 WNW 5.21 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.78N/76.14W Virginia Beach 5.19 in 0816 AM 09/18 36.79N/76.01W Virginia Beach 5.17 in 0625 AM 09/18 36.78N/76.14W Virginia Beach 4.2 NE 5.02 in 0800 AM 09/18 36.78N/75.99W Virginia Beach 4.86 in 0829 AM 09/18 36.84N/76.06W Virginia Beach 4.76 in 0629 AM 09/18 36.84N/76.06W Virginia Beach 4.70 in 0825 AM 09/18 36.75N/76.03W Virginia Beach 7.7 NW 4.69 in 0800 AM 09/18 36.81N/76.15W Virginia Beach 9.5 N 4.65 in 0800 AM 09/18 36.88N/76.03W Virginia Beach 4.61 in 0625 AM 09/18 36.75N/76.03W Oceana NAS Souce 4.52 in 0827 AM 09/18 36.82N/76.02W Virginia Beach 9.1 NNW 4.49 in 0800 AM 09/18 36.86N/76.12W Virginia Beach 4.44 in 0816 AM 09/18 36.76N/76.15W Virginia Beach 4.38 in 0617 AM 09/18 36.76N/76.15W Virginia Beach 3.1 ENE 4.20 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.75N/75.99W Virginia Beach 3.65 in 0626 AM 09/18 36.81N/76.14W Virginia Beach 3.20 in 0630 AM 09/18 36.75N/75.99W ...Cumberland County... Farmville 3.57 in 0615 AM 09/18 37.35N/78.42W Farmville 3.34 in 0815 AM 09/18 37.35N/78.42W ...Dinwiddie County... Churchroad 4.29 in 0616 AM 09/18 37.13N/77.69W Churchroad 4.10 in 0817 AM 09/18 37.13N/77.69W Dinwiddie 4.00 in 0626 AM 09/18 36.98N/77.54W Dinwiddie 3.81 in 0827 AM 09/18 36.98N/77.54W ...Essex County... Dunnsville 1.70 in 0828 AM 09/18 37.89N/76.81W ...Gloucester County... Gloucester Point 4.9 E 3.78 in 0824 AM 09/18 37.27N/76.41W Gloucester Point 2.4 E 3.63 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.26N/76.45W Gloucester Point 0.6 S 3.27 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.26N/76.50W Hayes 3.27 in 0835 AM 09/18 37.27N/76.43W ...Greensville County... Purdy 5.12 in 0625 AM 09/18 36.79N/77.57W Emporia 11.0 SW 4.94 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.57N/77.66W Emporia 3.60 in 0615 AM 09/18 36.68N/77.48W Emporia 3.53 in 0835 AM 09/18 36.68N/77.48W ...Henrico County... Montrose 4.7 SSE 3.55 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.46N/77.35W Sandston 5.9 ESE 3.08 in 0655 AM 09/18 37.51N/77.21W Richmond Intl Airport 3.01 in 0554 AM 09/18 37.52N/77.32W ...Isle of Wight County... Smithfield 0.7 NE 4.73 in 0700 AM 09/18 36.99N/76.61W Smithfield 7.2 W 4.33 in 0600 AM 09/18 36.99N/76.75W Windsor 0.5 ENE 4.31 in 0714 AM 09/18 36.81N/76.73W Carrollton 4.10 in 0622 AM 09/18 36.93N/76.53W Carrollton 4.09 in 0824 AM 09/18 36.93N/76.53W Franklin J B Ros 3.17 in 0615 AM 09/18 36.70N/76.90W ...James City County... Williamsburg 4.1 WNW 3.43 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.28N/76.78W Toano 3.40 in 0835 AM 09/18 37.44N/76.82W Williamsburg 4.7 WSW 3.31 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.26N/76.79W Williamsburg 6.5 NW 3.27 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.35N/76.77W Williamsburg 3.8 WSW 3.13 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.24N/76.77W Ford`s Colony 2.94 in 0828 AM 09/18 37.30N/76.75W ...King William County... West Point 3.17 in 0816 AM 09/18 37.57N/76.80W ...King and Queen County... West Point 3.42 in 0815 AM 09/18 37.52N/76.77W ...Lancaster County... Urbanna 6.2 NNE 3.25 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.72N/76.52W Kilmarnock 3.07 in 0630 AM 09/18 37.71N/76.38W White Stone 1.57 in 0816 AM 09/18 37.68N/76.37W ...Lunenburg County... Victoria 0.9 N 2.59 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.01N/78.22W 2 WSW Kenbridge 2.51 in 0627 AM 09/18 36.95N/78.17W ...Mathews County... North 2.24 in 0816 AM 09/18 37.45N/76.45W ...Mecklenburg County... John H Kerr Dam 5.33 in 0815 AM 09/18 36.60N/78.30W ...Middlesex County... White Stone 8.0 SSW 4.91 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.54N/76.44W Hartfield 4.38 in 0826 AM 09/18 37.56N/76.51W 1 S Deltaville 3.64 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.53N/76.33W 1 S Deltaville 3.64 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.53N/76.33W Locust Hill 1.1 ENE 3.45 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.61N/76.49W Remlik 3.10 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.68N/76.62W Saluda 3.03 in 0835 AM 09/18 37.60N/76.45W Stingray Point 2.54 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.55N/76.30W ...New Kent County... Quinton 3.46 in 0615 AM 09/18 37.50N/77.12W Quinton 3.37 in 0827 AM 09/18 37.51N/77.17W ...Northampton County... Eastville 5.0 NNW 4.01 in 0800 AM 09/18 37.42N/75.98W Oyster 3.04 in 0600 AM 09/18 37.29N/75.93W ...Northumberland County... Heathsville 4.6 SE 2.54 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.87N/76.42W Kilmarnock 2.53 in 0820 AM 09/18 37.70N/76.31W ...Nottoway County... Crewe 3.94 in 0622 AM 09/18 37.18N/78.13W Blackstone 3.84 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.07N/78.00W Blackstone 3.77 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.07N/78.00W Crewe 3.68 in 0822 AM 09/18 37.18N/78.13W ...Prince Edward County... Pamplin 3.01 in 0616 AM 09/18 37.27N/78.63W ...Prince George County... Disputanta 6.3 NE 3.39 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.19N/77.15W 1.6 SE Disputanta 3.32 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.11N/77.20W James River 3.27 in 0551 AM 09/18 37.26N/77.14W Prince George 3.2 ENE 3.24 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.24N/77.23W 1 ESE Disputanta 3.02 in 0625 AM 09/18 37.11N/77.20W 1 ESE Disputanta 2.99 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.11N/77.20W ...Southampton County... Drewryville 2.3 SW 5.30 in 0706 AM 09/18 36.69N/77.34W Zuni 1.5 NW 4.34 in 0600 AM 09/18 36.88N/76.85W Sedley 3.7 N 4.23 in 0605 AM 09/18 36.83N/76.99W Franklin 2.6 WNW 4.04 in 0804 AM 09/18 36.70N/76.98W 2 WSW Courtland 3.59 in 0630 AM 09/18 36.70N/77.10W 2 WSW Courtland 3.54 in 0835 AM 09/18 36.70N/77.10W ...Surry County... Claremont 3.08 in 0627 AM 09/18 37.22N/76.95W ...Sussex County... Norfolk Wakefld 5.54 in 0754 AM 09/18 36.98N/77.00W Wakefield 0.1 ENE 5.13 in 0811 AM 09/18 36.97N/76.99W ...York County... Newport News 5.8 NE 4.46 in 0700 AM 09/18 37.14N/76.45W Yorktown 6.8 SE 4.17 in 0800 AM 09/18 37.15N/76.45W Newport News 7.5 NNE 3.97 in 0715 AM 09/18 37.17N/76.44W 2 SE Tabb 3.15 in 0825 AM 09/18 37.10N/76.44W ...Maritime Stations... MMMBT 3.86 in 0830 AM 09/18 36.94N/76.40W Ft Eustis Felker 3.60 in 0819 AM 09/18 37.12N/76.62W &&
Environment
Upper level (500 mb) synoptic summary.
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| 12z/8 AM 9/16 500 mb analysis | 12z/8 AM 9/17 500 mb analysis | 12z/8 AM 9/18 500 mb analysis | Loop of 250 mb analysis from 8 AM 9/17 to 8 PM 9/17 in 3 hr increments |
Loops of regional surface and 850 mb analysis.
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| Loop of regional radar/MSLP and surface observations in 3 hour increments from 8 AM 9/17 to 8 AM 9/18 | Loop of temperature/dewpoint/MSLP in 3 hour increments from 8 AM 9/17 to 8 AM 9/18 | Loop of regional 850 mb analysis in 1 hour increments from 8 PM 9/17 to 8 AM 9/18 |
Additional environmental data.
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| 04z/12 AM 9/18 850 mb Frontogenesis | 08z/4 AM 9/18 850 mb Frontogenesis | 08z/4 AM 9/18 Precipitable Water and 850 mb moisture transport | 09z/5 AM RAP Analysis Sounding from KPHF (Newport News, VA) |
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