National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Areas of Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms on Tuesday

Heavy to excessive rainfall is forecast over north Texas into Oklahoma Tuesday. Locally catastrophic flooding will be possible across portions of southwest Oklahoma. Flood Watches have been issued. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible within a broad swath from the lower Great Lakes to the southern High Plains Tuesday afternoon into the evening. Read More >

Overview

An upper level trough approached the local area during the night of 5/26 and early morning of 5/27. At the surface, a weak cold front slowly approached from the west as ~1002mb low pressure tracked across the Great Lakes. A line of thunderstorms (well in advance of the cold front) was just to the west of the local area at 7 AM on 5/28. This line likely maintained its strength through the previous night given strong lift from robust height falls on the east side of the upper trough. The line of storms tracked across the area from west to east from the morning through early afternoon hours on 5/28. Strong to severe wind gusts and transient circulations accompanied the line of storms as it tracked across the area. In fact, a 50 knot (58 mph) wind gusts was recorded at Richmond International Airport as the line of storms passed through during the late morning. The environment was characterized by modest instability and relatively strong deep layer shear. Even though winds at the surface were S-SE, the lack of moderate to strong instability (as the line of storms crossed the area during the morning) and diurnal weakening of the 950-900 mb winds likely was enough to prevent tornadoes from forming. In addition, there was not a whole lot of directional wind shear from 0-1 km AGL. The atmosphere briefly stabilized after the line passed through, but partial clearing over western portions of the area allowed for instability to increase by late afternoon. 21z/5 PM manual surface analysis revealed a ~1007mb secondary triple point low centered over the south-central VA Piedmont, just ahead of the main cold front. Some localized backing of the surface wind field was observed as this secondary low tracked NNE during the evening hours. In addition, dew points increased to around 70F area-wide as the 950-850mb jet strengthened from 5 PM-8 PM (21-00z). This allowed for an increase in 0-1 km speed/directional shear, with low-level SRH values likely between 100 and 200 m2/s2. Given the aforementioned shear/instability, lowering LCLs, and presence of the triple point low, two of the storms were able to produce two tornadoes (one EF-1 and one EF-0) that resulted in tree and isolated structural damage in portions of Louisa/Hanover Counties. All severe weather came to an end by 10 PM.
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