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Latest Emergency Manager's Briefing (pdf) Latest Briefing Created: Thu Feb 20 15:50:02 EST 2025

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Winter Weather Threat Briefing

Day 1 Snow Forecast Day 2 Snow Forecast Day 3 Snow Forecast

 

Day 1-3 Snow Totals Worst Case Forecast 0-72 hour Snowfall Winter Storm Severity Index

 

CWA Snow Probabilities  
Likelihood of 1 Inch Snow over next 3 Days Likelihood of 2 Inch Snow over next 3 Days Likelihood of 4 Inch Snow over next 3 Days Likelihood of 6 Inch Snow over next 3 Days Likelihood of 8 Inch Snow over next 3 Days Likelihood of 12 Inch Snow over next 3 Days

 

Peak Snow Rate (every 6 hours) in in/hr  
0-6HR Peak Snow Rate (in/hr) 6-12HR Peak Snow Rate (in/hr) 12-18HR Peak Snow Rate (in/hr) 18-24HR Peak Snow Rate (in/hr) 24-30HR Peak Snow Rate (in/hr)

 

Snow Character (wet or dry) - every 6 hours  
0-6HR Snow Character 6-12HR Snow Character 12-18HR Snow Character 18-24HR Snow Character 24-30HRSnow Character

 

30-36HR Snow Character 36-42HR Snow Character 42-54HR Snow Character 48-54HR Snow Character 54-60HRSnow Character

 

60-66HR Snow Character 66-72HR Snow Character      
     
30 Hour Forecast Snow Amounts (6 Hour Periods)  
0 to 6 Hours 6 to 12 Hours 12 to 18 Hours 18 to 24 Hours 24 to 30 Hours 30 to 36 Hours  

 

Day 1 Ice Accumulation Forecast Day 2 Ice Accumulation Forecast Day 3 Ice Accumulation Forecast Day 1-3 Ice Totals
30 Hour Forecast Ice Accumulation (6 Hour Periods)  
0 to 6 Hours 6 to 12 Hours 12 to 18 Hours 18 to 24 Hours 24 to 30 Hours 30 to 36 Hours  

 


Day 1 Snowfall Greater Than 4" Day 2 Snowfall Greater Than 4" Day 3 Snowfall Greater Than 4"
     
Day 1 Freezing Rain Greater than 1/4" Day 2 Freezing Rain Greater than 1/4" Day 3 Freezing Rain Greater than 1/4"

 

Day 4 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook Day 5 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook Day 6 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook Day 7 Experimental Winter Weather Outlook

 

Snow Threat: 3-7 Days From Now  
Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7
Ice Threat: 3-7 Days From Now  
Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 7

 


Additional Information

 

Long Range Outlook Briefing

Days 3-7 Hazards Outlook (WPC)

 

Days 8-14 Hazards Outlook (CPC) Days 8-14 Risk of Hazardous Temperatures (CPC) Days 8-14 Risk of Heavy Precipitation (CPC)

 

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (CPC) 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
8-14 Day Temperature Outlook (CPC) 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
**Experimental** Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook (CPC) **Experimental** Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
One Month Temperature Outlook (CPC) One Month Precipitation Outlook (CPC)
Three Month Temperature Outlook (CPC) Three Month Precipitation Outlook (CPC)

Additional Information

 

Drought and Fire Weather Threat Briefing

Day 1 Max Temp Forecast Day 2 Max Temp Forecast Day 3 Max Temp Forecast

 

Day 1 Min RH Forecast Day 2 Min RH Forecast Day 3 Min RH Forecast

 

Day 1 Max Wind Gust Day 2 Max Wind Gust Day 3 Max Wind Gust

 

SPC Fire Weather Day 1 Outlook SPC Fire Weather Day 2 Outlook SPC Fire Weather Day 3-8 Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3 Fire Weather Outlook

 

Additional Information

 


 

  • Drought Information Statement (DGT): none issued at this time.

 

Seasonal Drought Outlook NIFC Significant Fire Potential Outlook

 

Additional Information

 

Cold Threat Briefing?

 

Excessive Cold Risk

Day 1 Excessive Cold Risk Day 2 Excessive Cold Risk Day 3 Excessive Cold Risk
   

 

Day 1 Min Temp Forecast Day 2 Min Temp Forecast Day 3 Min Temp Forecast

 

Day 1 Wind Chill Forecast Day 2 Wind Chill Forecast Day 3 Wind Chill Forecast

 

0-72 HR COLDEST WIND CHILL TEMPS

 

Day 1 Max Temp Forecast Day 2 Max Temp Forecast Day 3 Max Temp Forecast

 

Wind Threat Briefing

 

Wind Risk

Day 1 Wind Risk Day 2 Wind Risk Day 3 Wind Risk
   

 

Forecast Wind Sustained & Gusts

Day 1 Max Sustained Wind Day 2 Max Sustained Wind Day 3 Max Sustained Wind

 

Day 1 Max Wind Gust Day 2 Max Wind Gust Day 3 Max Wind Gust

 

0-72 HR Max SUSTAINED Wind 0-72 HR Max Wind GUST 0-72 Hour HR Worst Cast Peak Wind Gust

 

3 Hourly Wind Speed & Direction Forecasts

 

3 Hourly Wind Gusts

 

Marine Product/Threat Briefing?


 

 Marine Observations  as of 10:00 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2025
Location UTC TIME Air Temp
(°F)
Water Temp
(°F)
Wind
(DIR/SP/Gust)
Pres
(mb)
Wave&Swell
(HT/PER)
Baltimore Harbor14303036310/ 8/ 17N/A
Tolchester Beach143028330/ 18/ 241027.8
Francis S Key Br143028310/ 20/ 231027.7
Cambridge MD14302834330/ 22/ 271027.5
Thomas Pt, MD150029290/ 25/ 291028.5
Gooses Reef, MD14482936310/ 25/ 33N/A3
Cove Pt, MD143029340/ 19/ 271027.9
Piney Pt, MDN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Bishops Head, MD1424310/ 23/ 29N/A
Potomac, MD144829330/ 21/ 33N/A
Solomons Island, MDN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Lewisetta, VA14302933330/ 12/ 171028.7
Dahlgren, VA14303134330/ 11/ 171028.3
Rappahannock Light1424300/ 19/ 211030.1
StingRay Pt143630310/ 19/ 27N/A1
Yorktown, VA14302838300/ 15/ 181028.9
Buoy 44072 York14482738310/ 23/ 29N/A
Jamestown, VAN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Willouby Stn, VA142427300/ 12/ 141029.4
Dominion Term Stn142428310/ 15/ 201029.7
Money Pt14242739310/ 9/ 121029.3
Sewells Pt142428391028.9
Kiptopeke, VA14302830330/ 23/ 291028.4
Ches Bay Bridge142429320/ 21/ 261027.7
Cape Henry,VA142428300/ 20/ 231029.1
Lewes, DE14302932320/ 23/ 261025.9
Buoy 4400914503142310/ 25/ 331025.06
Brandywine Light143028330/ 24/ 331025.1
Ocean City Inlet14302937340/ 16/ 211024.1
Wachapreague, VA14303031290/ 4/ 141027.0
Wallops Island Buoy145639N/A3
Cape Henry Buoy142641N/A5
Cape Charles BuoyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
1st Landing BuoyN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Buoy 44014145033320/ 23/ 311027.09
Duck PierN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Buoy 44056N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Buoy 4410014242641320/ 15/ 191028.6
Oregon Inlet, NC14242934350/ 18/ 251029.1
Buoy 41025145066340/ 21/ 271028.67
Cape Lookout, NCN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
 

DAILY MARINE THREAT

TODAY TOMORROW DAY 3 DAY 4 DAY 5
Risk Level Definitions

 

MARINE WAVE/WIND FORECASTS

Max Wave Height Day 1 Max Wave Height Day 2 Max Wave Height Day 3 Max Wave Height 0-72 HR

 

Max Wind Gust Day 1 Max Wind Gust Day 2 Max Wind Gust Day 3 Max Wind Gust 0-72 HR

 

HOURLY WEATHER GRAPHS

Tangier Island Wolf Trap Thimble Shoal Mouth Of Chesapeake Bay Jamestown / Scotland Ferry
Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs

 

Lower James River (Hampton Roads) Fenwick Island Offshore Wallops Island Offshore Cape Henry Offshore Corolla Currituck Sound
Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs Hourly Weather Graphs

 

 

 

Complete Wind Gust Likelihood and Probabilities Page

 

LIKELIHOOD OF WIND GUSTS

25 KT LIKELYHOOD 34 KT LIKELYHOOD 43 KT LIKELYHOOD 48 KT LIKELYHOOD FORECAST WIND GUST HIGH END WIND GUST
Wind Gust Probabilities 25 kts Wind Gust Probabilities 34 kts Wind Gust Probabilities 43 kts Wind Gust Probabilities 48 kts Forecast Wind Gust kts Worst Case Wind Gust kts

 

RIP CURRENT FORECAST (MAY-SEPT)