.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the evening, with the least confidence at MRB. AMDs will likely be needed as guidance indicates the potential for multiple rounds, or at least some kind of redevelopment along the cluster's southern flank which could affect the metro hubs into the evening. Strong to severe downbursts, frequent lightning, and intense rain rates are possible with the strongest storms. While storm chances decrease during the evening, a few showers could linger into the night as the surface cold front approaches. There is also some potential of MVFR ceilings behind the storms in the metro areas, but confidence is low. Patchy fog could also develop if there are breaks in the clouds. The front will be south of the area Thursday, but showers and thunderstorms may still develop in its vicinity, which could affect CHO. VFR conditions appear probable Thursday night into Friday as high pressure builds to the north. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected throughout the weekend with intermittent sub-VFR conditions at times as a result of any showers and thunderstorms that form during the diurnal period. Winds will remain light out of the south throughout the weekend. VFR conditions continue into early next week, although the opportunity for sub-VFR remains during the afternoon and evening hours as a warm front lifts into the region. This will lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms at the terminals, although confidence remains low on which terminals will be affected. The highest coverage for thunderstorms appears to be by the middle and end of next week. AVIATION...ADS/DHOF/EST Update as of: 200 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024