FORECASTING SEVERE WEATHER USING SKEW-T
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METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY, WEATHERPREDICTION.COM
One of the most important times to examine soundings is during times when
severe weather is likely. Skew-T's can give you a general idea of the
character of the severe weather. Below are severe weather phenomena and
how to generally identify it's potential from the Skew-T diagram.
Strong straight-line WINDS:
Look for a hydrolapse and large dewpoint depressions in the mid-levels
of the troposphere. Winds will also occur in association with an
inverted-V sounding. The moist air parcels from the storm mixes with
the surrounding dry air. This evaporational cooling produces negative
buoyancy, causing air to accelerate toward the surface. High based
storms will generally have stronger winds since the downdrafts have a
longer distance above the surface to accelerate to the surface.
LARGE HAIL:
Lower values of PW (precipitable water) preferred. Large PW values will
water load the updraft. For large hail you need a large updraft and
thus large CAPE; High PW impedes this. PW less than 1.25 inches is
relatively low. PW above 1.75 will significantly water load the updraft.
LP and classic supercells have largest hail. Large PW (i.e. greater than
2.0 inches, can reduce upward vertical velocity of updraft by more than
half).
As mentioned, the more CAPE the better. Hail is more likely in high
elevation areas since the freezing level is closer to the surface. A
low freezing level is beneficial for hail since the hailstones will not
have as much time to melt before they hit the ground. A supercell is
needed to produce large hail. Look for loaded gun sounding and
convective instability.
Click here
for an in-depth explanation of hail formation.
TORNADO:
Strong veering of wind in boundary layer. Look for loaded gun sounding
with plenty of convective instability. Strong upper level jet will tilt
thunderstorm, ensuring it will be a supercell. MUST have winds in the
boundary layer averaging above 20 knots. Strong low level jet along with
veering boundary profile adds large storm relative inflow into storm.
This produces large Helicity values. There needs to be a good balance
between shear and instability.
Click here
for an in-depth explanation of tornado formation
HEAVY RAIN (flash flood):
High PW value, well above climatological norm. Strong low level forcing
but with relatively weak upper level wind. Moisture convergence into
stationary low level feature (such as a stationary front, tropical
circulation).
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