Forecast Group - UPRMO (UMO) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DBRM8 98 ( 51/ 52) 98 ( 51/ 52) 96 ( 50/ 52) 81 ( 42/ 52) 65 ( 34/ 52) 46 ( 24/ 52) 35 ( 18/ 52) under -3 under -8 under -21 under -31 under -40 under -36 under -30 24.1 -24.1 27.2 -27.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DTTM8 85 ( 45/ 53) 85 ( 45/ 53) 83 ( 44/ 53) 79 ( 42/ 53) 68 ( 36/ 53) 58 ( 31/ 53) 43 ( 23/ 53) over 10 over 5 under -8 under -29 under -43 under -48 under -38 25.9 -21.6 26.6 -24.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLGM8 92 ( 89/ 97) 92 (131/142) 91 ( 88/ 97) 81 (115/142) 65 ( 63/ 97) 46 ( 66/142) 27 ( 26/ 97) over 3 under -2 under -16 under -31 under -40 under -36 under -22 21.4 -20.6 25.0 -25.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HLWM8 93 ( 67/ 72) 93 ( 67/ 72) 93 ( 67/ 72) 92 ( 66/ 72) 90 ( 65/ 72) 61 ( 44/ 72) 51 ( 37/ 72) over 2 under -3 under -18 under -42 under -65 under -51 under -46 32.4 -31.9 35.8 -35.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDKM8 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 94 ( 17/ 18) 67 ( 12/ 18) under -5 under -10 under -25 under -50 under -75 under -84 under -62 44.4 -44.4 48.8 -48.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOGM8 94 ( 83/ 88) 93 ( 82/ 88) 91 ( 80/ 88) 81 ( 71/ 88) 56 ( 49/ 88) 33 ( 29/ 88) 26 ( 23/ 88) over 1 under -3 under -16 under -31 under -31 under -23 under -21 18.0 -17.7 20.8 -20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LVNM8 88 ( 63/ 72) 88 ( 63/ 72) 87 ( 62/ 71) 81 ( 58/ 72) 61 ( 43/ 71) 53 ( 38/ 72) 39 ( 28/ 71) over 7 over 2 under -12 under -31 under -36 under -43 under -34 23.6 -21.0 24.8 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDYM8 69 ( 67/ 97) 70 ( 85/121) 57 ( 55/ 97) 52 ( 63/121) 31 ( 30/ 97) 28 ( 34/121) 16 ( 16/ 97) over 26 over 20 over 18 under -2 under -6 under -18 under -11 14.4 3.9 12.8 2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MLRM8 89 ( 86/ 97) 87 (124/142) 86 ( 83/ 97) 78 (111/142) 59 ( 57/ 97) 26 ( 37/142) 9 ( 9/ 97) over 6 over 3 under -11 under -28 under -34 under -16 under -4 14.6 -12.0 18.4 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSBM8 89 ( 63/ 71) 89 ( 63/ 71) 87 ( 62/ 71) 83 ( 59/ 71) 75 ( 53/ 71) 65 ( 46/ 71) 46 ( 33/ 71) over 6 over 1 under -12 under -33 under -50 under -55 under -41 28.3 -26.3 30.2 -29.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MUSM8 82 ( 58/ 71) 80 ( 57/ 71) 79 ( 56/ 71) 68 ( 48/ 71) 51 ( 36/ 71) 35 ( 25/ 71) 25 ( 18/ 71) over 13 over 10 under -4 under -18 under -26 under -25 under -20 16.6 -10.0 16.6 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUPM8 83 ( 59/ 71) 82 ( 58/ 71) 82 ( 58/ 71) 65 ( 46/ 71) 51 ( 36/ 71) 39 ( 28/ 71) 27 ( 19/ 71) over 12 over 8 under -7 under -15 under -26 under -29 under -22 17.0 -11.3 17.0 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHAM8 88 ( 63/ 72) 88 ( 63/ 72) 86 ( 62/ 72) 81 ( 58/ 72) 57 ( 41/ 72) 42 ( 30/ 72) 31 ( 22/ 72) over 7 over 2 under -11 under -31 under -32 under -32 under -26 20.1 -17.6 21.6 -20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLM8 96 ( 70/ 73) 96 ( 70/ 73) 95 ( 69/ 73) 73 ( 53/ 73) 55 ( 40/ 73) 48 ( 35/ 73) 42 ( 31/ 73) under -1 under -6 under -20 under -23 under -30 under -38 under -37 22.1 -22.1 23.4 -23.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSRM8 70 ( 37/ 53) 70 ( 37/ 53) 68 ( 36/ 53) 68 ( 36/ 53) 62 ( 33/ 53) 53 ( 28/ 53) 45 ( 24/ 53) over 25 over 20 over 7 under -18 under -37 under -43 under -40 27.1 -12.3 25.0 -14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFKM8 81 ( 43/ 53) 81 ( 43/ 53) 79 ( 42/ 53) 70 ( 37/ 53) 58 ( 31/ 53) 36 ( 19/ 53) 25 ( 13/ 53) over 14 over 9 under -4 under -20 under -33 under -26 under -20 18.0 -11.4 18.4 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOSM8 91 ( 48/ 53) 89 ( 47/ 53) 85 ( 45/ 53) 75 ( 40/ 53) 64 ( 34/ 53) 47 ( 25/ 53) 26 ( 14/ 53) over 4 over 1 under -10 under -25 under -39 under -37 under -21 19.6 -18.1 22.4 -22.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWIM8 82 ( 59/ 72) 81 ( 58/ 72) 81 ( 58/ 72) 71 ( 51/ 72) 63 ( 45/ 72) 39 ( 28/ 72) 29 ( 21/ 72) over 13 over 9 under -6 under -21 under -38 under -29 under -24 20.0 -13.7 20.6 -17.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TWNM8 75 ( 40/ 53) 74 ( 39/ 53) 74 ( 39/ 53) 72 ( 38/ 53) 64 ( 34/ 53) 55 ( 29/ 53) 45 ( 24/ 53) over 20 over 16 over 1 under -22 under -39 under -45 under -40 26.1 -15.6 24.6 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VAUM8 66 ( 35/ 53) 66 ( 35/ 53) 64 ( 34/ 53) 64 ( 34/ 53) 62 ( 33/ 53) 49 ( 26/ 53) 34 ( 18/ 53) over 29 over 24 over 11 under -14 under -37 under -39 under -29 26.1 -7.9 25.0 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - BIGHORN (BGH) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BBRW4 91 ( 30/ 33) 91 ( 30/ 33) 88 ( 29/ 33) 85 ( 28/ 33) 73 ( 24/ 33) 70 ( 23/ 33) 58 ( 19/ 33) over 4 under -1 under -13 under -35 under -48 under -60 under -53 30.6 -29.4 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BHBW4 91 ( 30/ 33) 91 ( 30/ 33) 91 ( 30/ 33) 91 ( 30/ 33) 82 ( 27/ 33) 58 ( 19/ 33) 52 ( 17/ 33) over 4 under -1 under -16 under -41 under -57 under -48 under -47 30.6 -29.4 32.6 -32.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CROW4 79 ( 38/ 48) 79 ( 38/ 48) 79 ( 38/ 48) 77 ( 37/ 48) 75 ( 36/ 48) 60 ( 29/ 48) 56 ( 27/ 48) over 16 over 11 under -4 under -27 under -50 under -50 under -51 29.9 -22.1 28.4 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DUBW4 98 ( 85/ 87) 96 (121/126) 92 ( 80/ 87) 91 (115/126) 79 ( 69/ 87) 76 ( 96/126) 59 ( 51/ 87) under -3 under -6 under -17 under -41 under -54 under -66 under -54 34.4 -34.4 36.8 -36.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KINW4 98 ( 47/ 48) 98 ( 47/ 48) 98 ( 47/ 48) 94 ( 45/ 48) 88 ( 42/ 48) 71 ( 34/ 48) 60 ( 29/ 48) under -3 under -8 under -23 under -44 under -63 under -61 under -55 36.7 -36.7 39.8 -39.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFSW4 99 ( 86/ 87) 99 (130/131) 99 ( 86/ 87) 95 (125/131) 85 ( 74/ 87) 81 (106/131) 57 ( 50/ 87) under -4 under -9 under -24 under -45 under -60 under -71 under -52 37.9 -37.9 41.8 -41.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVTW4 100 ( 33/ 33) 100 ( 33/ 33) 100 ( 33/ 33) 100 ( 33/ 33) 91 ( 30/ 33) 67 ( 22/ 33) 58 ( 19/ 33) under -5 under -10 under -25 under -50 under -66 under -57 under -53 38.0 -38.0 41.6 -41.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLOW4 76 ( 25/ 33) 76 ( 25/ 33) 76 ( 25/ 33) 73 ( 24/ 33) 70 ( 23/ 33) 70 ( 23/ 33) 61 ( 20/ 33) over 19 over 14 under -1 under -23 under -45 under -60 under -56 31.1 -21.7 28.6 -23.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRW4 100 ( 48/ 48) 100 ( 48/ 48) 100 ( 48/ 48) 96 ( 46/ 48) 90 ( 43/ 48) 71 ( 34/ 48) 56 ( 27/ 48) under -5 under -10 under -25 under -46 under -65 under -61 under -51 37.6 -37.6 41.4 -41.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WRCW4 100 ( 87/ 87) 86 (108/126) 98 ( 85/ 87) 83 (104/126) 83 ( 72/ 87) 61 ( 77/126) 55 ( 48/ 87) under -5 over 4 under -23 under -33 under -58 under -51 under -50 32.0 -30.9 33.8 -32.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - YELLOW (YEL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BFYM8 98 ( 95/ 97) 96 (135/141) 87 ( 84/ 97) 74 (105/141) 55 ( 53/ 97) 33 ( 47/141) 22 ( 21/ 97) under -3 under -6 under -12 under -24 under -30 under -23 under -17 16.4 -16.4 19.0 -19.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BILM8 95 ( 92/ 97) 94 (133/141) 91 ( 88/ 97) 86 (121/141) 74 ( 72/ 97) 49 ( 69/141) 28 ( 27/ 97) spot-on 0 under -4 under -16 under -36 under -49 under -39 under -23 23.9 -23.9 28.8 -28.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BNYM8 91 ( 88/ 97) 91 (110/121) 91 ( 88/ 97) 90 (109/121) 87 ( 84/ 97) 80 ( 97/121) 59 ( 57/ 97) over 4 under -1 under -16 under -40 under -62 under -70 under -54 35.3 -34.1 37.8 -37.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BTMM8 93 ( 90/ 97) 91 (128/141) 91 ( 88/ 97) 86 (121/141) 73 ( 71/ 97) 55 ( 77/141) 40 ( 39/ 97) over 2 under -1 under -16 under -36 under -48 under -45 under -35 26.1 -25.6 29.2 -29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORM8 93 ( 90/ 97) 86 (121/141) 75 ( 73/ 97) 57 ( 81/141) 39 ( 38/ 97) 20 ( 28/141) 8 ( 8/ 97) over 2 over 4 spot-on 0 under -7 under -14 under -10 under -3 5.7 -4.0 7.0 -5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDGM8 95 ( 92/ 97) 92 ( 92/100) 84 ( 81/ 97) 65 ( 65/100) 48 ( 47/ 97) 31 ( 31/100) 20 ( 19/ 97) spot-on 0 under -2 under -9 under -15 under -23 under -21 under -15 12.1 -12.1 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRYM8 86 ( 31/ 36) 86 ( 31/ 36) 86 ( 31/ 36) 81 ( 29/ 36) 81 ( 29/ 36) 42 ( 15/ 36) 19 ( 7/ 36) over 9 over 4 under -11 under -31 under -56 under -32 under -14 22.4 -18.7 26.8 -25.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNM8 97 ( 35/ 36) 97 ( 35/ 36) 97 ( 35/ 36) 97 ( 35/ 36) 89 ( 32/ 36) 72 ( 26/ 36) 53 ( 19/ 36) under -2 under -7 under -22 under -47 under -64 under -62 under -48 36.0 -36.0 40.4 -40.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRDM8 97 ( 35/ 36) 97 ( 35/ 36) 97 ( 35/ 36) 89 ( 32/ 36) 78 ( 28/ 36) 44 ( 16/ 36) 28 ( 10/ 36) under -2 under -7 under -22 under -39 under -53 under -34 under -23 25.7 -25.7 31.0 -31.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVM8 96 ( 93/ 97) 90 (127/141) 89 ( 86/ 97) 72 (102/141) 53 ( 51/ 97) 30 ( 43/141) 21 ( 20/ 97) under -1 spot-on 0 under -14 under -22 under -28 under -20 under -16 14.4 -14.4 16.8 -16.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICM8 95 ( 92/ 97) 92 (106/115) 95 ( 92/ 97) 92 (106/115) 78 ( 76/ 97) 50 ( 57/115) 33 ( 32/ 97) spot-on 0 under -2 under -20 under -42 under -53 under -40 under -28 26.4 -26.4 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILM8 92 ( 33/ 36) 92 ( 33/ 36) 89 ( 32/ 36) 86 ( 31/ 36) 86 ( 31/ 36) 53 ( 19/ 36) 36 ( 13/ 36) over 3 under -2 under -14 under -36 under -61 under -43 under -31 27.1 -26.3 31.2 -31.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHBW4 68 ( 54/ 80) 68 ( 54/ 80) 68 ( 54/ 80) 66 ( 53/ 80) 65 ( 52/ 80) 57 ( 46/ 80) 50 ( 40/ 80) over 27 over 22 over 7 under -16 under -40 under -47 under -45 29.1 -13.1 26.4 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIDM8 97 ( 35/ 36) 97 ( 35/ 36) 94 ( 34/ 36) 92 ( 33/ 36) 89 ( 32/ 36) 61 ( 22/ 36) 42 ( 15/ 36) under -2 under -7 under -19 under -42 under -64 under -51 under -37 31.7 -31.7 36.6 -36.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLDM8 80 ( 78/ 97) 80 (113/141) 70 ( 68/ 97) 54 ( 76/141) 29 ( 28/ 97) 18 ( 26/141) 12 ( 12/ 97) over 15 over 10 over 5 under -4 under -4 under -8 under -7 7.6 1.0 6.2 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAM8 97 ( 94/ 97) 95 (128/135) 91 ( 88/ 97) 81 (110/135) 63 ( 61/ 97) 42 ( 57/135) 19 ( 18/ 97) under -2 under -5 under -16 under -31 under -38 under -32 under -14 19.7 -19.7 24.4 -24.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TFLW4 92 ( 89/ 97) 90 (126/140) 79 ( 77/ 97) 68 ( 95/140) 42 ( 41/ 97) 26 ( 36/140) 14 ( 14/ 97) over 3 spot-on 0 under -4 under -18 under -17 under -16 under -9 9.6 -8.7 11.0 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YLOW4 78 ( 76/ 97) 69 ( 96/140) 69 ( 67/ 97) 58 ( 81/140) 55 ( 53/ 97) 44 ( 62/140) 45 ( 44/ 97) over 17 over 21 over 6 under -8 under -30 under -34 under -40 22.3 -9.7 19.8 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - MILK (MIL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCHM8 93 (112/120) 93 (125/134) 88 (106/120) 84 (112/134) 68 ( 82/120) 41 ( 55/134) 27 ( 32/120) over 2 under -3 under -13 under -34 under -43 under -31 under -22 21.1 -20.6 24.8 -24.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCMM8 92 (110/120) 92 (123/134) 91 (109/120) 83 (111/134) 53 ( 63/120) 34 ( 46/134) 28 ( 33/120) over 3 under -2 under -16 under -33 under -28 under -24 under -23 18.4 -17.6 20.6 -20.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BSMM8 97 (116/120) 96 (129/134) 94 (113/120) 87 (117/134) 70 ( 84/120) 50 ( 67/134) 45 ( 54/120) under -2 under -6 under -19 under -37 under -45 under -40 under -40 27.0 -27.0 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CCMM8 99 (119/120) 99 (133/134) 98 (118/120) 82 (110/134) 68 ( 81/120) 50 ( 67/134) 43 ( 51/120) under -4 under -9 under -23 under -32 under -43 under -40 under -38 27.0 -27.0 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DMRM8 90 (108/120) 91 (122/134) 89 (107/120) 85 (114/134) 70 ( 84/120) 49 ( 65/134) 33 ( 40/120) over 5 under -1 under -14 under -35 under -45 under -39 under -28 23.9 -22.4 26.8 -26.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ERNM8 84 (101/120) 84 (113/134) 84 (101/120) 79 (106/134) 58 ( 70/120) 32 ( 43/134) 28 ( 34/120) over 11 over 6 under -9 under -29 under -33 under -22 under -23 19.0 -14.1 19.8 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLWM8 23 ( 28/120) 14 ( 27/193) 21 ( 25/120) 12 ( 24/193) 14 ( 17/120) 7 ( 14/193) 8 ( 10/120) over 72 over 76 over 54 over 38 over 11 over 3 under -3 36.7 35.9 36.4 36.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRLM8 71 ( 85/120) 74 (143/193) 62 ( 74/120) 67 (129/193) 44 ( 53/120) 38 ( 74/193) 20 ( 24/120) over 24 over 16 over 13 under -17 under -19 under -28 under -15 18.9 -3.7 18.6 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HVRM8 61 ( 73/120) 63 (122/193) 53 ( 64/120) 49 ( 95/193) 43 ( 51/120) 38 ( 73/193) 23 ( 28/120) over 34 over 27 over 22 over 1 under -18 under -28 under -18 21.1 2.9 19.2 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGEM8 70 ( 84/120) 70 ( 94/134) 69 ( 83/120) 64 ( 86/134) 53 ( 64/120) 25 ( 33/134) 21 ( 25/120) over 25 over 20 over 6 under -14 under -28 under -15 under -16 17.7 -3.1 16.6 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MALM8 88 (105/120) 56 (108/193) 87 (104/120) 49 ( 95/193) 64 ( 77/120) 29 ( 56/193) 41 ( 49/120) over 7 over 34 under -12 over 1 under -39 under -19 under -36 21.1 -9.1 21.0 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NSHM8 83 ( 99/120) 85 (165/193) 78 ( 94/120) 75 (144/193) 56 ( 67/120) 44 ( 85/193) 27 ( 32/120) over 12 over 5 under -3 under -25 under -31 under -34 under -22 18.9 -14.0 19.6 -17.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLRM8 92 (110/120) 92 (178/193) 90 (108/120) 90 (174/193) 77 ( 92/120) 52 (100/193) 36 ( 43/120) over 3 under -2 under -15 under -40 under -52 under -42 under -31 26.4 -25.6 30.2 -30.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SACM8 86 (103/120) 81 (150/186) 84 (101/120) 69 (128/186) 59 ( 71/120) 30 ( 55/186) 23 ( 27/120) over 9 over 9 under -9 under -19 under -34 under -20 under -18 16.9 -11.7 18.2 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMBM8 96 (115/120) 96 (165/171) 96 (115/120) 94 (160/171) 88 (105/120) 78 (134/171) 57 ( 69/120) under -1 under -6 under -21 under -44 under -63 under -68 under -52 36.4 -36.4 40.4 -40.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TMPM8 81 ( 97/120) 82 (158/193) 78 ( 93/120) 70 (136/193) 59 ( 71/120) 30 ( 57/193) 23 ( 27/120) over 14 over 8 under -3 under -20 under -34 under -20 under -18 16.7 -10.4 17.0 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPTM8 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 100 ( 18/ 18) 72 ( 13/ 18) 67 ( 12/ 18) under -5 under -10 under -25 under -50 under -75 under -62 under -62 41.3 -41.3 44.4 -44.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - UPRDAK (UDT) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CACS2 94 ( 92/ 98) 94 (189/201) 85 ( 83/ 98) 79 (159/201) 40 ( 39/ 98) 25 ( 51/201) 10 ( 10/ 98) over 1 under -4 under -10 under -29 under -15 under -15 under -5 11.3 -11.0 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZNN8 82 ( 80/ 98) 85 (170/201) 74 ( 73/ 98) 57 (114/201) 36 ( 35/ 98) 22 ( 45/201) 16 ( 16/ 98) over 13 over 5 over 1 under -7 under -11 under -12 under -11 8.6 -3.1 7.2 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMCN8 90 ( 88/ 98) 92 (185/201) 87 ( 85/ 98) 73 (146/201) 33 ( 32/ 98) 33 ( 67/201) 8 ( 8/ 98) over 5 under -2 under -12 under -23 under -8 under -23 under -3 10.9 -9.4 13.6 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDAN8 92 ( 90/ 98) 90 (180/201) 80 ( 78/ 98) 76 (153/201) 43 ( 42/ 98) 33 ( 66/201) 7 ( 7/ 98) over 3 spot-on 0 under -5 under -26 under -18 under -23 under -2 11.0 -10.1 14.4 -14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MDNN8 87 ( 85/ 98) 90 (180/201) 81 ( 79/ 98) 69 (138/201) 48 ( 47/ 98) 30 ( 60/201) 12 ( 12/ 98) over 8 spot-on 0 under -6 under -19 under -23 under -20 under -7 11.9 -9.6 13.6 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MENN8 87 ( 85/ 98) 50 (100/201) 80 ( 78/ 98) 33 ( 67/201) 34 ( 33/ 98) 12 ( 25/201) 22 ( 22/ 98) over 8 over 40 under -5 over 17 under -9 under -2 under -17 14.0 4.6 14.6 8.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNGN8 96 ( 94/ 98) 92 (184/201) 91 ( 89/ 98) 78 (156/201) 50 ( 49/ 98) 26 ( 52/201) 17 ( 17/ 98) under -1 under -2 under -16 under -28 under -25 under -16 under -12 14.3 -14.3 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTHN8 96 ( 94/ 98) 59 (118/201) 93 ( 91/ 98) 49 ( 99/201) 51 ( 50/ 98) 22 ( 44/201) 17 ( 17/ 98) under -1 over 31 under -18 over 1 under -26 under -12 under -12 14.4 -5.3 17.6 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTFN8 90 ( 88/ 98) 86 (173/201) 87 ( 85/ 98) 72 (144/201) 54 ( 53/ 98) 30 ( 61/201) 18 ( 18/ 98) over 5 over 4 under -12 under -22 under -29 under -20 under -13 15.0 -12.4 17.4 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZAPN8 98 ( 96/ 98) 50 (101/201) 90 ( 88/ 98) 41 ( 83/201) 45 ( 44/ 98) 15 ( 31/201) 22 ( 22/ 98) under -3 over 40 under -15 over 9 under -20 under -5 under -17 15.6 -1.6 17.8 1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - MIDDAK (MDT) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BREN8 66 ( 64/ 97) 76 (146/191) 56 ( 54/ 97) 54 (103/191) 25 ( 24/ 97) 34 ( 65/191) 9 ( 9/ 97) over 29 over 14 over 19 under -4 spot-on 0 under -24 under -4 13.4 4.3 12.2 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVRN8 98 ( 95/ 97) 96 (128/134) 94 ( 91/ 97) 71 ( 95/134) 42 ( 41/ 97) 20 ( 27/134) 16 ( 16/ 97) under -3 under -6 under -19 under -21 under -17 under -10 under -11 12.4 -12.4 14.6 -14.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BWSW4 95 ( 92/ 97) 94 (127/135) 93 ( 90/ 97) 86 (116/135) 70 ( 68/ 97) 41 ( 55/135) 21 ( 20/ 97) spot-on 0 under -4 under -18 under -36 under -45 under -31 under -16 21.4 -21.4 26.8 -26.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EMSS2 91 ( 88/ 97) 92 (177/192) 86 ( 83/ 97) 81 (155/192) 55 ( 53/ 97) 46 ( 89/192) 26 ( 25/ 97) over 4 under -2 under -11 under -31 under -30 under -36 under -21 19.3 -18.1 22.0 -22.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTHS2 88 ( 85/ 97) 91 (174/192) 81 ( 79/ 97) 70 (135/192) 31 ( 30/ 97) 38 ( 72/192) 16 ( 16/ 97) over 7 under -1 under -6 under -20 under -6 under -28 under -11 11.3 -9.3 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIES2 88 ( 85/ 97) 90 (171/191) 76 ( 74/ 97) 65 (125/191) 45 ( 44/ 97) 42 ( 81/191) 33 ( 32/ 97) over 7 spot-on 0 under -1 under -15 under -20 under -32 under -28 14.7 -12.7 13.6 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLNS2 88 ( 85/ 97) 91 (174/192) 81 ( 79/ 97) 83 (160/192) 59 ( 57/ 97) 47 ( 90/192) 22 ( 21/ 97) over 7 under -1 under -6 under -33 under -34 under -37 under -17 19.3 -17.3 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGN8 77 ( 75/ 97) 40 ( 76/191) 60 ( 58/ 97) 27 ( 52/191) 32 ( 31/ 97) 8 ( 16/191) 7 ( 7/ 97) over 18 over 50 over 15 over 23 under -7 over 2 under -2 16.7 14.1 19.4 16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RLGN8 86 ( 83/ 97) 45 ( 86/191) 73 ( 71/ 97) 27 ( 52/191) 32 ( 31/ 97) 12 ( 23/191) 16 ( 16/ 97) over 9 over 45 over 2 over 23 under -7 under -2 under -11 14.1 8.4 15.8 12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SBFS2 95 ( 92/ 97) 93 (126/135) 86 ( 83/ 97) 77 (104/135) 51 ( 49/ 97) 26 ( 35/135) 16 ( 16/ 97) spot-on 0 under -3 under -11 under -27 under -26 under -16 under -11 13.4 -13.4 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WASS2 98 ( 95/ 97) 99 (190/192) 96 ( 93/ 97) 94 (180/192) 71 ( 69/ 97) 63 (120/192) 32 ( 31/ 97) under -3 under -9 under -21 under -44 under -46 under -53 under -27 29.0 -29.0 34.6 -34.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHIS2 85 ( 82/ 97) 87 (167/191) 80 ( 78/ 97) 69 (131/191) 41 ( 40/ 97) 43 ( 82/191) 25 ( 24/ 97) over 10 over 3 under -5 under -19 under -16 under -33 under -20 15.1 -11.4 15.2 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - LWRDAK (LDT) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTPS2 91 ( 86/ 95) 90 (160/178) 87 ( 83/ 95) 73 (130/178) 34 ( 32/ 95) 31 ( 55/178) 16 ( 15/ 95) over 4 spot-on 0 under -12 under -23 under -9 under -21 under -11 11.4 -10.3 13.0 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KDKS2 96 ( 91/ 95) 93 (124/133) 94 ( 89/ 95) 73 ( 97/133) 43 ( 41/ 95) 24 ( 32/133) 17 ( 16/ 95) under -1 under -3 under -19 under -23 under -18 under -14 under -12 12.9 -12.9 15.4 -15.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MIDS2 63 ( 60/ 95) 78 (138/178) 57 ( 54/ 95) 55 ( 98/178) 23 ( 22/ 95) 24 ( 42/178) 9 ( 9/ 95) over 32 over 12 over 18 under -5 over 2 under -14 under -4 12.4 5.9 10.2 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OACS2 88 ( 84/ 95) 94 (166/177) 85 ( 81/ 95) 83 (147/177) 42 ( 40/ 95) 40 ( 70/177) 13 ( 12/ 95) over 7 under -4 under -10 under -33 under -17 under -30 under -8 15.6 -13.6 18.8 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPKN1 96 ( 91/ 95) 96 (150/156) 97 ( 91/ 94) 94 (147/156) 81 ( 76/ 94) 63 ( 98/156) 50 ( 47/ 94) under -1 under -6 under -22 under -44 under -56 under -53 under -45 32.4 -32.4 36.2 -36.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERN1 95 ( 89/ 94) 95 (169/177) 82 ( 77/ 94) 75 (133/177) 60 ( 56/ 94) 47 ( 84/177) 28 ( 26/ 94) spot-on 0 under -5 under -7 under -25 under -35 under -37 under -23 18.9 -18.9 21.8 -21.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRDN1 96 ( 90/ 94) 98 (173/177) 96 ( 90/ 94) 92 (162/177) 77 ( 72/ 94) 56 ( 99/177) 47 ( 44/ 94) under -1 under -8 under -21 under -42 under -52 under -46 under -42 30.3 -30.3 33.8 -33.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHRS2 96 ( 91/ 95) 95 (126/133) 95 ( 90/ 95) 65 ( 86/133) 29 ( 28/ 95) 20 ( 26/133) 16 ( 15/ 95) under -1 under -5 under -20 under -15 under -4 under -10 under -11 9.4 -9.4 10.8 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - JAMES (JAM) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATNS2 75 ( 73/ 97) 76 (156/205) 70 ( 68/ 97) 68 (139/205) 39 ( 38/ 97) 23 ( 48/205) 10 ( 10/ 97) over 20 over 14 over 5 under -18 under -14 under -13 under -5 12.7 -1.6 12.8 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMBS2 78 ( 76/ 97) 80 (165/205) 77 ( 75/ 97) 73 (150/205) 49 ( 48/ 97) 28 ( 57/205) 10 ( 10/ 97) over 17 over 10 under -2 under -23 under -24 under -18 under -5 14.1 -6.4 15.4 -11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FORS2 85 ( 82/ 97) 83 (171/205) 80 ( 78/ 97) 69 (142/205) 43 ( 42/ 97) 25 ( 52/205) 16 ( 16/ 97) over 10 over 7 under -5 under -19 under -18 under -15 under -11 12.1 -7.3 12.8 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GCEN8 85 ( 82/ 97) 85 (175/205) 85 ( 82/ 97) 81 (167/205) 54 ( 52/ 97) 29 ( 59/205) 15 ( 15/ 97) over 10 over 5 under -10 under -31 under -29 under -19 under -10 16.3 -12.0 18.8 -16.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HURS2 88 ( 85/ 97) 88 (180/205) 84 ( 81/ 97) 73 (149/205) 43 ( 42/ 97) 27 ( 55/205) 19 ( 18/ 97) over 7 over 2 under -9 under -23 under -18 under -17 under -14 12.9 -10.3 13.8 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMS2 79 ( 77/ 97) 80 (165/205) 74 ( 72/ 97) 67 (137/205) 36 ( 35/ 97) 19 ( 38/205) 7 ( 7/ 97) over 16 over 10 over 1 under -17 under -11 under -9 under -2 9.4 -1.7 9.6 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAMN8 91 ( 88/ 97) 92 (189/205) 92 ( 89/ 97) 86 (177/205) 76 ( 74/ 97) 39 ( 80/205) 25 ( 24/ 97) over 4 under -2 under -17 under -36 under -51 under -29 under -20 22.7 -21.6 27.0 -27.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTVS2 90 ( 87/ 97) 90 (184/205) 88 ( 85/ 97) 79 (161/205) 51 ( 49/ 97) 34 ( 70/205) 14 ( 14/ 97) over 5 spot-on 0 under -13 under -29 under -26 under -24 under -9 15.1 -13.7 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PGEN8 95 ( 92/ 97) 95 (194/205) 94 ( 91/ 97) 91 (187/205) 71 ( 69/ 97) 46 ( 95/205) 35 ( 34/ 97) spot-on 0 under -5 under -19 under -41 under -46 under -36 under -30 25.3 -25.3 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PKRS2 100 ( 96/ 96) 97 (198/204) 98 ( 94/ 96) 92 (188/204) 84 ( 81/ 96) 66 (135/204) 49 ( 47/ 96) under -5 under -7 under -23 under -42 under -59 under -56 under -44 33.7 -33.7 37.4 -37.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RFDS2 77 ( 75/ 97) 80 (165/205) 71 ( 69/ 97) 65 (133/205) 41 ( 40/ 97) 21 ( 43/205) 11 ( 11/ 97) over 18 over 10 over 4 under -15 under -16 under -11 under -6 11.4 -2.3 11.2 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCOS2 95 ( 92/ 97) 91 (186/205) 89 ( 86/ 97) 79 (161/205) 51 ( 49/ 96) 26 ( 54/205) 15 ( 14/ 96) spot-on 0 under -1 under -14 under -29 under -26 under -16 under -10 13.7 -13.7 17.2 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFDS2 71 ( 69/ 97) 72 (148/205) 64 ( 62/ 97) 63 (129/205) 34 ( 33/ 97) 26 ( 53/205) 12 ( 12/ 97) over 24 over 18 over 11 under -13 under -9 under -16 under -7 14.0 1.1 13.4 -1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VERS2 88 ( 84/ 96) 89 (181/204) 82 ( 79/ 96) 75 (154/204) 57 ( 55/ 96) 21 ( 42/204) 11 ( 11/ 96) over 7 over 1 under -7 under -25 under -32 under -11 under -6 12.7 -10.4 15.2 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VRPS2 94 ( 90/ 96) 92 (188/204) 89 ( 85/ 96) 83 (169/204) 58 ( 56/ 96) 36 ( 73/204) 16 ( 15/ 96) over 1 under -2 under -14 under -33 under -33 under -26 under -11 17.1 -16.9 21.6 -21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WESS2 88 ( 85/ 97) 89 (183/205) 87 ( 84/ 97) 70 (143/205) 48 ( 47/ 97) 35 ( 72/205) 24 ( 23/ 97) over 7 over 1 under -12 under -20 under -23 under -25 under -19 15.3 -13.0 16.2 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YNNS2 93 ( 89/ 96) 93 (113/121) 89 ( 85/ 96) 80 ( 97/121) 48 ( 46/ 96) 31 ( 37/121) 17 ( 16/ 96) over 2 under -3 under -14 under -30 under -23 under -21 under -12 15.0 -14.4 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - SIOUXS (SIO) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AKRI4 95 ( 90/ 95) 90 (175/195) 79 ( 75/ 95) 67 (130/195) 39 ( 37/ 95) 14 ( 27/195) 9 ( 9/ 95) spot-on 0 spot-on 0 under -4 under -17 under -14 under -4 under -4 6.1 -6.1 7.8 -7.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALTI4 97 ( 92/ 95) 90 (175/195) 84 ( 80/ 95) 63 (122/195) 39 ( 37/ 95) 18 ( 35/195) 19 ( 18/ 95) under -2 spot-on 0 under -9 under -13 under -14 under -8 under -14 8.6 -8.6 8.8 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRKS2 93 ( 88/ 95) 91 (178/195) 82 ( 78/ 95) 74 (145/195) 39 ( 37/ 95) 33 ( 65/195) 15 ( 14/ 95) over 2 under -1 under -7 under -24 under -14 under -23 under -10 11.6 -11.0 13.8 -13.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHKI4 66 ( 63/ 95) 32 ( 62/195) 61 ( 58/ 95) 25 ( 48/195) 27 ( 26/ 95) 6 ( 12/195) 11 ( 10/ 95) over 29 over 58 over 14 over 25 under -2 over 4 under -6 19.7 17.4 20.6 19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COSS2 94 ( 89/ 95) 94 (183/195) 84 ( 80/ 95) 74 (145/195) 44 ( 42/ 95) 29 ( 57/195) 20 ( 19/ 95) over 1 under -4 under -9 under -24 under -19 under -19 under -15 13.0 -12.7 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRRI4 91 ( 86/ 95) 92 (179/195) 83 ( 79/ 95) 68 (132/195) 39 ( 37/ 95) 26 ( 50/195) 18 ( 17/ 95) over 4 under -2 under -8 under -18 under -14 under -16 under -13 10.7 -9.6 11.6 -11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSWS2 96 ( 91/ 95) 96 (188/195) 85 ( 81/ 95) 69 (134/195) 41 ( 39/ 95) 33 ( 64/195) 16 ( 15/ 95) under -1 under -6 under -10 under -19 under -16 under -23 under -11 12.3 -12.3 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DERS2 89 ( 85/ 95) 90 (176/195) 79 ( 75/ 95) 69 (134/195) 36 ( 34/ 95) 26 ( 50/195) 11 ( 10/ 95) over 6 spot-on 0 under -4 under -19 under -11 under -16 under -6 8.9 -7.1 10.0 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HOKI4 91 ( 86/ 95) 86 (168/195) 84 ( 80/ 95) 56 (109/195) 35 ( 33/ 95) 22 ( 43/195) 12 ( 11/ 95) over 4 over 4 under -9 under -6 under -10 under -12 under -7 7.4 -5.1 8.2 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HWDI4 97 ( 36/ 37) 95 ( 35/ 37) 84 ( 31/ 37) 76 ( 28/ 37) 54 ( 20/ 37) 30 ( 11/ 37) 11 ( 4/ 37) under -2 under -5 under -9 under -26 under -29 under -20 under -6 13.9 -13.9 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JMEI4 99 ( 94/ 95) 97 (189/195) 94 ( 89/ 95) 73 (142/195) 52 ( 49/ 95) 17 ( 34/195) 17 ( 16/ 95) under -4 under -7 under -19 under -23 under -27 under -7 under -12 14.1 -14.1 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LMRI4 59 ( 56/ 95) 28 ( 55/195) 53 ( 50/ 95) 17 ( 34/195) 20 ( 19/ 95) 5 ( 9/195) 6 ( 6/ 95) over 36 over 62 over 22 over 33 over 5 over 5 under -1 23.4 23.1 25.4 25.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNNI4 88 ( 84/ 95) 91 (178/195) 82 ( 78/ 95) 70 (136/195) 35 ( 33/ 95) 26 ( 50/195) 14 ( 13/ 95) over 7 under -1 under -7 under -20 under -10 under -16 under -9 10.0 -8.0 10.8 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LUVM5 97 ( 92/ 95) 86 (168/195) 89 ( 85/ 95) 73 (143/195) 55 ( 52/ 95) 37 ( 73/195) 20 ( 19/ 95) under -2 over 4 under -14 under -23 under -30 under -27 under -15 16.4 -15.3 19.6 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MAPI4 92 ( 87/ 95) 94 (183/195) 85 ( 81/ 95) 71 (138/195) 39 ( 37/ 95) 31 ( 60/195) 23 ( 22/ 95) over 3 under -4 under -10 under -21 under -14 under -21 under -18 13.0 -12.1 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MIFI4 94 ( 15/ 16) 94 ( 15/ 16) 88 ( 14/ 16) 75 ( 12/ 16) 25 ( 4/ 16) 13 ( 2/ 16) 0 ( 0/ 16) over 1 under -4 under -13 under -25 spot-on 0 under -3 over 5 7.3 -5.6 9.0 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRLI4 25 ( 24/ 95) 25 ( 48/195) 20 ( 19/ 95) 10 ( 20/195) 2 ( 2/ 95) 0 ( 0/195) 0 ( 0/ 95) over 70 over 65 over 55 over 40 over 23 over 10 over 5 38.3 38.3 38.6 38.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RAPI4 97 ( 92/ 95) 95 (174/184) 91 ( 86/ 95) 71 (130/184) 43 ( 41/ 95) 24 ( 44/184) 13 ( 12/ 95) under -2 under -5 under -16 under -21 under -18 under -14 under -8 12.0 -12.0 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RKVI4 77 ( 73/ 95) 87 (170/195) 74 ( 70/ 95) 73 (143/195) 38 ( 36/ 95) 30 ( 58/195) 15 ( 14/ 95) over 18 over 3 over 1 under -23 under -13 under -20 under -10 12.6 -6.3 12.0 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFLS2 57 ( 54/ 95) 78 (153/195) 54 ( 51/ 95) 69 (135/195) 29 ( 28/ 95) 41 ( 79/195) 9 ( 9/ 95) over 38 over 12 over 21 under -19 under -4 under -31 under -4 18.4 1.9 17.4 -4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHLI4 54 ( 51/ 95) 24 ( 46/195) 43 ( 41/ 95) 16 ( 32/195) 19 ( 18/ 95) 2 ( 4/195) 3 ( 3/ 95) over 41 over 66 over 32 over 34 over 6 over 8 over 2 27.0 27.0 29.2 29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIFS2 97 ( 92/ 95) 97 (190/195) 94 ( 89/ 95) 88 (172/195) 59 ( 56/ 95) 39 ( 77/195) 26 ( 25/ 95) under -2 under -7 under -19 under -38 under -34 under -29 under -21 21.4 -21.4 25.4 -25.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIOI4 88 ( 84/ 95) 91 (177/195) 82 ( 78/ 95) 81 (158/195) 58 ( 55/ 95) 46 ( 89/195) 24 ( 23/ 95) over 7 under -1 under -7 under -31 under -33 under -36 under -19 19.1 -17.1 21.6 -21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPOI4 97 ( 92/ 95) 94 (113/120) 93 ( 88/ 95) 83 ( 99/120) 58 ( 55/ 95) 33 ( 40/120) 22 ( 21/ 95) under -2 under -4 under -18 under -33 under -33 under -23 under -17 18.6 -18.6 22.2 -22.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPWI4 57 ( 54/ 95) 28 ( 54/195) 53 ( 50/ 95) 24 ( 46/195) 25 ( 24/ 95) 6 ( 12/195) 9 ( 9/ 95) over 38 over 62 over 22 over 26 spot-on 0 over 4 under -4 22.3 21.1 22.8 22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXCI4 60 ( 57/ 95) 29 ( 56/195) 55 ( 52/ 95) 23 ( 44/195) 31 ( 29/ 95) 8 ( 16/195) 12 ( 11/ 95) over 35 over 61 over 20 over 27 under -6 over 2 under -7 22.6 18.9 23.2 20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SXFS2 89 ( 85/ 95) 90 (176/195) 78 ( 74/ 95) 70 (136/195) 34 ( 32/ 95) 25 ( 48/195) 5 ( 5/ 95) over 6 spot-on 0 under -3 under -20 under -9 under -15 spot-on 0 7.6 -5.9 9.4 -9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TURI4 91 ( 86/ 95) 93 (181/195) 82 ( 78/ 95) 70 (136/195) 43 ( 41/ 95) 29 ( 56/195) 15 ( 14/ 95) over 4 under -3 under -7 under -20 under -18 under -19 under -10 11.6 -10.4 13.4 -13.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBSS2 89 ( 85/ 95) 89 (173/195) 81 ( 77/ 95) 60 (117/195) 42 ( 40/ 95) 29 ( 56/195) 20 ( 19/ 95) over 6 over 1 under -6 under -10 under -17 under -19 under -15 10.6 -8.6 10.6 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WBWS2 95 ( 90/ 95) 89 (173/195) 83 ( 79/ 95) 56 (109/195) 33 ( 31/ 95) 16 ( 31/195) 16 ( 15/ 95) spot-on 0 over 1 under -8 under -6 under -8 under -6 under -11 5.7 -5.4 5.8 -5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRS2 94 ( 89/ 95) 93 (182/195) 85 ( 81/ 95) 72 (141/195) 51 ( 48/ 95) 30 ( 59/195) 13 ( 12/ 95) over 1 under -3 under -10 under -22 under -26 under -20 under -8 12.9 -12.6 16.2 -16.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - SOPLAT (SPL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BZNC2 76 ( 60/ 79) 73 ( 75/103) 63 ( 50/ 79) 53 ( 55/103) 30 ( 24/ 79) 20 ( 21/103) 10 ( 8/ 79) over 19 over 17 over 12 under -3 under -5 under -10 under -5 10.1 3.6 9.4 2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DKKC2 38 ( 30/ 79) 45 ( 40/ 89) 38 ( 30/ 79) 45 ( 40/ 89) 34 ( 27/ 79) 29 ( 26/ 89) 20 ( 16/ 79) over 57 over 45 over 37 over 5 under -9 under -19 under -15 26.7 14.4 23.0 11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNVC2 91 ( 72/ 79) 93 (100/108) 89 ( 70/ 79) 85 ( 92/108) 70 ( 55/ 79) 47 ( 51/108) 30 ( 24/ 79) over 4 under -3 under -14 under -35 under -45 under -37 under -25 23.3 -22.1 26.8 -26.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRBC2 95 ( 75/ 79) 94 (101/108) 86 ( 68/ 79) 80 ( 86/108) 68 ( 54/ 79) 45 ( 49/108) 47 ( 37/ 79) spot-on 0 under -4 under -11 under -30 under -43 under -35 under -42 23.6 -23.6 24.6 -24.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTDC2 90 ( 71/ 79) 88 ( 99/112) 86 ( 68/ 79) 82 ( 92/112) 65 ( 51/ 79) 45 ( 50/112) 15 ( 12/ 79) over 5 over 2 under -11 under -32 under -40 under -35 under -10 19.3 -17.3 24.0 -23.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLDC2 95 ( 75/ 79) 95 (105/110) 94 ( 74/ 79) 88 ( 97/110) 72 ( 57/ 79) 54 ( 59/110) 33 ( 26/ 79) spot-on 0 under -5 under -19 under -38 under -47 under -44 under -28 25.9 -25.9 30.6 -30.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRPC2 89 ( 70/ 79) 90 (104/115) 85 ( 67/ 79) 80 ( 92/115) 59 ( 47/ 79) 32 ( 37/115) 13 ( 10/ 79) over 6 spot-on 0 under -10 under -30 under -34 under -22 under -8 15.7 -14.0 19.2 -19.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNDC2 86 ( 68/ 79) 81 ( 88/108) 72 ( 57/ 79) 60 ( 65/108) 34 ( 27/ 79) 25 ( 27/108) 14 ( 11/ 79) over 9 over 9 over 3 under -10 under -9 under -15 under -9 9.1 -3.1 9.2 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JULC2 71 ( 56/ 79) 73 ( 75/103) 58 ( 46/ 79) 55 ( 57/103) 42 ( 33/ 79) 37 ( 38/103) 22 ( 17/ 79) over 24 over 17 over 17 under -5 under -17 under -27 under -17 17.7 -1.1 16.6 -3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KERC2 73 ( 58/ 79) 69 ( 75/108) 59 ( 47/ 79) 54 ( 58/108) 27 ( 21/ 79) 19 ( 20/108) 8 ( 6/ 79) over 22 over 21 over 16 under -4 under -2 under -9 under -3 11.0 5.9 10.4 4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOVC2 89 ( 70/ 79) 91 (100/110) 85 ( 67/ 79) 80 ( 88/110) 65 ( 51/ 79) 54 ( 59/110) 33 ( 26/ 79) over 6 under -1 under -10 under -30 under -40 under -44 under -28 22.7 -21.0 25.0 -25.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LUPC2 94 ( 17/ 18) 89 ( 16/ 18) 89 ( 16/ 18) 67 ( 12/ 18) 28 ( 5/ 18) 0 ( 0/ 18) 0 ( 0/ 18) over 1 over 1 under -14 under -17 under -3 over 10 over 5 7.3 -2.4 9.0 -4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRRC2 94 ( 74/ 79) 94 (102/108) 90 ( 71/ 79) 83 ( 90/108) 56 ( 44/ 79) 46 ( 50/108) 34 ( 27/ 79) over 1 under -4 under -15 under -33 under -31 under -36 under -29 21.3 -21.0 23.8 -23.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPSN1 63 ( 50/ 79) 49 ( 50/103) 63 ( 50/ 79) 43 ( 44/103) 33 ( 26/ 79) 17 ( 17/103) 18 ( 14/ 79) over 32 over 41 over 12 over 7 under -8 under -7 under -13 17.1 9.1 15.0 9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- POUC2 95 ( 75/ 79) 95 (109/115) 95 ( 75/ 79) 90 (104/115) 76 ( 60/ 79) 57 ( 66/115) 22 ( 17/ 79) spot-on 0 under -5 under -20 under -40 under -51 under -47 under -17 25.7 -25.7 32.6 -32.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSON1 61 ( 49/ 80) 62 ( 64/104) 59 ( 47/ 80) 54 ( 56/104) 38 ( 30/ 80) 32 ( 33/104) 20 ( 16/ 80) over 34 over 28 over 16 under -4 under -13 under -22 under -15 18.9 3.4 16.6 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHRC2 89 ( 70/ 79) 88 ( 95/108) 87 ( 69/ 79) 81 ( 87/108) 63 ( 50/ 79) 37 ( 40/108) 20 ( 16/ 79) over 6 over 2 under -12 under -31 under -38 under -27 under -15 18.7 -16.4 22.0 -21.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPTC2 48 ( 38/ 79) 49 ( 53/108) 42 ( 33/ 79) 39 ( 42/108) 30 ( 24/ 79) 27 ( 29/108) 18 ( 14/ 79) over 47 over 41 over 33 over 11 under -5 under -17 under -13 23.9 13.9 21.4 12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WNAC2 77 ( 61/ 79) 76 ( 78/103) 72 ( 57/ 79) 50 ( 52/103) 33 ( 26/ 79) 12 ( 12/103) 6 ( 5/ 79) over 18 over 14 over 3 spot-on 0 under -8 under -2 under -1 6.6 3.4 5.4 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - NOPLAT (NPL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BGPN1 45 ( 36/ 80) 41 ( 35/ 86) 44 ( 35/ 80) 33 ( 28/ 86) 28 ( 22/ 80) 22 ( 19/ 86) 16 ( 13/ 80) over 50 over 49 over 31 over 17 under -3 under -12 under -11 24.7 17.3 22.4 16.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOSW4 76 ( 61/ 80) 79 ( 80/101) 76 ( 61/ 80) 70 ( 71/101) 54 ( 43/ 80) 54 ( 55/101) 39 ( 31/ 80) over 19 over 11 under -1 under -20 under -29 under -44 under -34 22.6 -14.0 21.0 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPRW4 73 ( 58/ 80) 71 ( 67/ 95) 73 ( 58/ 80) 68 ( 65/ 95) 68 ( 54/ 80) 62 ( 59/ 95) 53 ( 42/ 80) over 22 over 19 over 2 under -18 under -43 under -52 under -48 29.1 -16.9 26.8 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECRW4 89 ( 71/ 80) 89 ( 81/ 91) 85 ( 68/ 80) 85 ( 77/ 91) 73 ( 58/ 80) 56 ( 51/ 91) 43 ( 34/ 80) over 6 over 1 under -10 under -35 under -48 under -46 under -38 26.3 -24.3 28.0 -27.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLAW4 89 ( 71/ 80) 86 ( 87/101) 84 ( 67/ 80) 79 ( 80/101) 66 ( 53/ 80) 55 ( 56/101) 43 ( 34/ 80) over 6 over 4 under -9 under -29 under -41 under -45 under -38 24.6 -21.7 25.6 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNW4 80 ( 64/ 80) 76 ( 72/ 95) 79 ( 63/ 80) 74 ( 70/ 95) 73 ( 58/ 80) 61 ( 58/ 95) 51 ( 41/ 80) over 15 over 14 under -4 under -24 under -48 under -51 under -46 28.9 -20.6 28.2 -22.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HANW4 86 ( 69/ 80) 85 ( 86/101) 78 ( 62/ 80) 76 ( 77/101) 60 ( 48/ 80) 49 ( 49/101) 30 ( 24/ 80) over 9 over 5 under -3 under -26 under -35 under -39 under -25 20.3 -16.3 21.6 -19.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HENN1 60 ( 48/ 80) 60 ( 56/ 94) 60 ( 48/ 80) 51 ( 48/ 94) 44 ( 35/ 80) 40 ( 38/ 94) 31 ( 25/ 80) over 35 over 30 over 15 under -1 under -19 under -30 under -26 22.3 0.6 19.0 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEWN1 51 ( 41/ 80) 45 ( 39/ 86) 48 ( 38/ 80) 40 ( 34/ 86) 35 ( 28/ 80) 28 ( 24/ 86) 25 ( 20/ 80) over 44 over 45 over 27 over 10 under -10 under -18 under -20 24.9 11.1 22.0 10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LLRW4 75 ( 60/ 80) 64 ( 65/101) 73 ( 58/ 80) 59 ( 60/101) 54 ( 43/ 80) 36 ( 36/101) 30 ( 24/ 80) over 20 over 26 over 2 under -9 under -29 under -26 under -25 19.6 -5.9 18.4 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LSON1 53 ( 42/ 80) 48 ( 41/ 86) 49 ( 39/ 80) 41 ( 35/ 86) 36 ( 29/ 80) 24 ( 21/ 86) 21 ( 17/ 80) over 42 over 42 over 26 over 9 under -11 under -14 under -16 22.9 11.1 20.4 10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICN1 41 ( 33/ 80) 38 ( 33/ 86) 40 ( 32/ 80) 33 ( 28/ 86) 20 ( 16/ 80) 15 ( 13/ 86) 8 ( 6/ 80) over 54 over 52 over 35 over 17 over 5 under -5 under -3 24.4 22.1 22.8 20.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNTN1 38 ( 30/ 80) 35 ( 30/ 86) 34 ( 27/ 80) 26 ( 22/ 86) 23 ( 18/ 80) 19 ( 16/ 86) 11 ( 9/ 80) over 57 over 55 over 41 over 24 over 2 under -9 under -6 27.7 23.4 26.2 22.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGTC2 84 ( 67/ 80) 85 ( 86/101) 83 ( 66/ 80) 81 ( 82/101) 73 ( 58/ 80) 69 ( 70/101) 54 ( 43/ 80) over 11 over 5 under -8 under -31 under -48 under -59 under -49 30.1 -25.6 30.2 -28.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPTN1 55 ( 44/ 80) 50 ( 43/ 86) 50 ( 40/ 80) 40 ( 34/ 86) 35 ( 28/ 80) 23 ( 20/ 86) 20 ( 16/ 80) over 40 over 40 over 25 over 10 under -10 under -13 under -15 21.9 11.0 19.6 10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORIW4 76 ( 61/ 80) 75 ( 71/ 95) 76 ( 61/ 80) 72 ( 68/ 95) 69 ( 55/ 80) 56 ( 53/ 95) 44 ( 35/ 80) over 19 over 15 under -1 under -22 under -44 under -46 under -39 26.6 -16.9 25.6 -19.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SINW4 84 ( 67/ 80) 84 ( 76/ 91) 79 ( 63/ 80) 76 ( 69/ 91) 64 ( 51/ 80) 57 ( 52/ 91) 44 ( 35/ 80) over 11 over 6 under -4 under -26 under -39 under -47 under -39 24.6 -19.7 24.4 -22.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAW4 83 ( 66/ 80) 80 ( 81/101) 76 ( 61/ 80) 74 ( 75/101) 60 ( 48/ 80) 46 ( 46/101) 28 ( 22/ 80) over 12 over 10 under -1 under -24 under -35 under -36 under -23 20.1 -13.9 21.2 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODW4 94 ( 75/ 80) 95 ( 96/101) 89 ( 71/ 80) 83 ( 84/101) 74 ( 59/ 80) 59 ( 60/101) 49 ( 39/ 80) over 1 under -5 under -14 under -33 under -49 under -49 under -44 27.9 -27.6 30.0 -30.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - LOUP (LUP) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FULN1 91 ( 85/ 93) 88 (141/160) 76 ( 71/ 93) 54 ( 87/160) 37 ( 34/ 93) 33 ( 53/160) 20 ( 19/ 93) over 4 over 2 under -1 under -4 under -12 under -23 under -15 8.7 -7.0 8.4 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GELN1 95 ( 88/ 93) 96 (154/160) 92 ( 86/ 93) 76 (122/160) 52 ( 48/ 93) 44 ( 71/160) 30 ( 28/ 93) spot-on 0 under -6 under -17 under -26 under -27 under -34 under -25 19.3 -19.3 22.0 -22.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GEON1 94 ( 87/ 93) 92 (105/114) 72 ( 67/ 93) 53 ( 60/114) 25 ( 23/ 93) 10 ( 11/114) 5 ( 5/ 93) over 1 under -2 over 3 under -3 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 1.3 -0.1 1.6 -0.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMIN1 99 ( 92/ 93) 94 (151/160) 86 ( 80/ 93) 56 ( 89/160) 40 ( 37/ 93) 17 ( 27/160) 16 ( 15/ 93) under -4 under -4 under -11 under -6 under -15 under -7 under -11 8.3 -8.3 8.6 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPLN1 98 ( 91/ 93) 98 (156/160) 97 ( 90/ 93) 77 (123/160) 52 ( 48/ 93) 44 ( 70/160) 30 ( 28/ 93) under -3 under -8 under -22 under -27 under -27 under -34 under -25 20.9 -20.9 23.6 -23.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SPUN1 98 ( 91/ 93) 96 (154/160) 97 ( 90/ 93) 81 (130/160) 55 ( 51/ 93) 43 ( 69/160) 29 ( 27/ 93) under -3 under -6 under -22 under -31 under -30 under -33 under -24 21.3 -21.3 24.4 -24.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWTN1 97 ( 90/ 93) 93 (148/160) 80 ( 74/ 93) 50 ( 80/160) 22 ( 20/ 93) 13 ( 21/160) 10 ( 9/ 93) under -2 under -3 under -5 spot-on 0 over 3 under -3 under -5 3.0 -2.1 2.8 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - ELPLAT (ELK) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALDN1 57 ( 52/ 92) 65 ( 87/134) 55 ( 51/ 92) 46 ( 61/134) 12 ( 11/ 92) 7 ( 9/134) 0 ( 0/ 92) over 38 over 25 over 20 over 4 over 13 over 3 over 5 15.4 15.4 13.0 13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASLN1 99 ( 91/ 92) 98 (105/107) 97 ( 89/ 92) 83 ( 89/107) 63 ( 58/ 92) 17 ( 18/107) 10 ( 9/ 92) under -4 under -8 under -22 under -33 under -38 under -7 under -5 16.7 -16.7 21.6 -21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDYN1 39 ( 36/ 92) 34 ( 36/107) 38 ( 35/ 92) 24 ( 26/107) 16 ( 15/ 92) 7 ( 8/107) 7 ( 6/ 92) over 56 over 56 over 37 over 26 over 9 over 3 under -2 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLBN1 95 ( 87/ 92) 96 (128/134) 89 ( 82/ 92) 65 ( 87/134) 35 ( 32/ 92) 21 ( 28/134) 15 ( 14/ 92) spot-on 0 under -6 under -14 under -15 under -10 under -11 under -10 9.4 -9.4 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- COZN1 39 ( 36/ 92) 33 ( 36/108) 33 ( 30/ 92) 19 ( 21/108) 13 ( 12/ 92) 6 ( 6/108) 4 ( 4/ 92) over 56 over 57 over 42 over 31 over 12 over 4 over 1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNCN1 92 ( 85/ 92) 90 ( 96/107) 90 ( 83/ 92) 74 ( 79/107) 52 ( 48/ 92) 31 ( 33/107) 23 ( 21/ 92) over 3 spot-on 0 under -15 under -24 under -27 under -21 under -18 15.4 -14.6 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EWIN1 98 ( 90/ 92) 96 (140/146) 98 ( 90/ 92) 87 (127/146) 74 ( 68/ 92) 52 ( 76/146) 37 ( 34/ 92) under -3 under -6 under -23 under -37 under -49 under -42 under -32 27.4 -27.4 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRIN1 88 ( 81/ 92) 87 ( 93/107) 86 ( 79/ 92) 72 ( 77/107) 53 ( 49/ 92) 33 ( 35/107) 23 ( 21/ 92) over 7 over 3 under -11 under -22 under -28 under -23 under -18 16.0 -13.1 17.4 -16.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRNN1 99 ( 91/ 92) 98 (131/134) 90 ( 83/ 92) 77 (103/134) 46 ( 42/ 92) 13 ( 18/134) 8 ( 7/ 92) under -4 under -8 under -15 under -27 under -21 under -3 under -3 11.6 -11.6 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ITHN1 96 ( 88/ 92) 94 (126/134) 86 ( 79/ 92) 68 ( 91/134) 20 ( 18/ 92) 4 ( 5/134) 1 ( 1/ 92) under -1 under -4 under -11 under -18 over 5 over 6 over 4 7.0 -2.7 8.8 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KEAN1 79 ( 73/ 92) 81 ( 87/108) 74 ( 68/ 92) 61 ( 66/108) 43 ( 40/ 92) 29 ( 31/108) 24 ( 22/ 92) over 16 over 9 over 1 under -11 under -18 under -19 under -19 13.3 -5.9 11.6 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCNN1 99 ( 91/ 92) 99 (132/134) 89 ( 82/ 92) 78 (104/134) 43 ( 40/ 92) 16 ( 21/134) 9 ( 8/ 92) under -4 under -9 under -14 under -28 under -18 under -6 under -4 11.9 -11.9 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LESN1 99 ( 91/ 92) 96 (102/106) 97 ( 89/ 92) 75 ( 79/106) 47 ( 43/ 92) 22 ( 23/106) 16 ( 15/ 92) under -4 under -6 under -22 under -25 under -22 under -12 under -11 14.6 -14.6 17.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOUN1 100 ( 92/ 92) 99 (106/107) 97 ( 89/ 92) 84 ( 90/107) 46 ( 42/ 92) 23 ( 25/107) 8 ( 7/ 92) under -5 under -9 under -22 under -34 under -21 under -13 under -3 15.3 -15.3 19.8 -19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NBDN1 99 ( 91/ 92) 99 (106/107) 96 ( 88/ 92) 79 ( 85/107) 52 ( 48/ 92) 38 ( 41/107) 17 ( 16/ 92) under -4 under -9 under -21 under -29 under -27 under -28 under -12 18.6 -18.6 22.8 -22.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFKN1 100 ( 92/ 92) 97 (142/146) 98 ( 90/ 92) 77 (112/146) 45 ( 41/ 92) 24 ( 35/146) 14 ( 13/ 92) under -5 under -7 under -23 under -27 under -20 under -14 under -9 15.0 -15.0 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NKRN1 95 ( 84/ 88) 93 ( 82/ 88) 81 ( 71/ 88) 74 ( 65/ 88) 53 ( 47/ 88) 25 ( 22/ 88) 7 ( 6/ 88) spot-on 0 under -3 under -6 under -24 under -28 under -15 under -2 11.1 -11.1 15.2 -15.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLIN1 80 ( 74/ 92) 79 (116/146) 58 ( 53/ 92) 38 ( 55/146) 26 ( 24/ 92) 16 ( 23/146) 11 ( 10/ 92) over 15 over 11 over 17 over 12 under -1 under -6 under -6 9.7 6.0 9.4 6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OVTN1 87 ( 59/ 68) 87 ( 59/ 68) 81 ( 55/ 68) 57 ( 39/ 68) 43 ( 29/ 68) 28 ( 19/ 68) 19 ( 13/ 68) over 8 over 3 under -6 under -7 under -18 under -18 under -14 10.6 -7.4 10.4 -9.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLGN1 97 ( 89/ 92) 97 (141/146) 91 ( 84/ 92) 77 (112/146) 38 ( 35/ 92) 21 ( 30/146) 7 ( 6/ 92) under -2 under -7 under -16 under -27 under -13 under -11 under -2 11.1 -11.1 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRCN1 97 ( 89/ 92) 97 (141/146) 92 ( 85/ 92) 80 (117/146) 51 ( 47/ 92) 22 ( 32/146) 21 ( 19/ 92) under -2 under -7 under -17 under -30 under -26 under -12 under -16 15.7 -15.7 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROCN1 96 ( 88/ 92) 96 (129/134) 89 ( 82/ 92) 74 ( 99/134) 52 ( 48/ 92) 22 ( 29/134) 14 ( 13/ 92) under -1 under -6 under -14 under -24 under -27 under -12 under -9 13.3 -13.3 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UEHN1 98 ( 90/ 92) 97 (141/146) 93 ( 86/ 92) 73 (106/146) 41 ( 38/ 92) 17 ( 25/146) 10 ( 9/ 92) under -3 under -7 under -18 under -23 under -16 under -7 under -5 11.3 -11.3 14.2 -14.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLON1 99 ( 77/ 78) 97 ( 76/ 78) 94 ( 73/ 78) 74 ( 58/ 78) 28 ( 22/ 78) 9 ( 7/ 78) 0 ( 0/ 78) under -4 under -7 under -19 under -24 under -3 over 1 over 5 9.0 -7.3 10.8 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPNN1 97 ( 89/ 92) 97 (141/146) 96 ( 88/ 92) 79 (115/146) 43 ( 40/ 92) 34 ( 49/146) 8 ( 7/ 92) under -2 under -7 under -21 under -29 under -18 under -24 under -3 14.9 -14.9 19.8 -19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRN1 98 ( 90/ 92) 95 (139/146) 89 ( 82/ 92) 65 ( 95/146) 32 ( 29/ 92) 20 ( 29/146) 10 ( 9/ 92) under -3 under -5 under -14 under -15 under -7 under -10 under -5 8.4 -8.4 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - UPRREP (URP) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEKN1 36 ( 34/ 94) 35 ( 34/ 97) 35 ( 33/ 94) 27 ( 26/ 97) 12 ( 11/ 94) 4 ( 4/ 97) 0 ( 0/ 94) over 59 over 55 over 40 over 23 over 13 over 6 over 5 28.7 28.7 27.4 27.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BENN1 37 ( 35/ 94) 28 ( 35/123) 36 ( 34/ 94) 25 ( 31/123) 29 ( 27/ 94) 20 ( 25/123) 19 ( 18/ 94) over 58 over 62 over 39 over 25 under -4 under -10 under -14 30.3 22.3 28.0 22.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEVN1 31 ( 29/ 94) 24 ( 29/123) 26 ( 24/ 94) 13 ( 16/123) 10 ( 9/ 94) 6 ( 7/123) 5 ( 5/ 94) over 64 over 66 over 49 over 37 over 15 over 4 spot-on 0 33.6 33.6 34.2 34.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAMN1 48 ( 45/ 94) 48 ( 47/ 97) 46 ( 43/ 94) 44 ( 43/ 97) 22 ( 21/ 94) 10 ( 10/ 97) 6 ( 6/ 94) over 47 over 42 over 29 over 6 over 3 spot-on 0 under -1 18.3 18.0 16.0 16.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CDBK1 97 ( 91/ 94) 80 ( 99/123) 97 ( 91/ 94) 58 ( 71/123) 45 ( 42/ 94) 13 ( 16/123) 2 ( 2/ 94) under -2 over 10 under -22 under -8 under -20 under -3 over 3 9.7 -6.0 12.6 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CULN1 88 ( 83/ 94) 89 ( 86/ 97) 85 ( 80/ 94) 70 ( 68/ 97) 54 ( 51/ 94) 31 ( 30/ 97) 21 ( 20/ 94) over 7 over 1 under -10 under -20 under -29 under -21 under -16 14.9 -12.6 16.2 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HAIN1 59 ( 55/ 94) 62 ( 76/123) 57 ( 54/ 94) 57 ( 70/123) 37 ( 35/ 94) 33 ( 41/123) 27 ( 25/ 94) over 36 over 28 over 18 under -7 under -12 under -23 under -22 20.9 2.6 17.6 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDLK1 0 ( 0/ 94) 1 ( 1/123) 0 ( 0/ 94) 1 ( 1/123) 0 ( 0/ 94) 0 ( 0/123) 0 ( 0/ 94) over 95 over 89 over 75 over 49 over 25 over 10 over 5 49.7 49.7 49.6 49.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MCKN1 97 ( 91/ 94) 96 ( 93/ 97) 90 ( 85/ 94) 64 ( 62/ 97) 39 ( 37/ 94) 18 ( 17/ 97) 14 ( 13/ 94) under -2 under -6 under -15 under -14 under -14 under -8 under -9 9.7 -9.7 11.4 -11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MKRN1 85 ( 80/ 94) 82 ( 80/ 97) 84 ( 79/ 94) 70 ( 68/ 97) 48 ( 45/ 94) 25 ( 24/ 97) 15 ( 14/ 94) over 10 over 8 under -9 under -20 under -23 under -15 under -10 13.6 -8.4 15.0 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCRK1 80 ( 75/ 94) 80 ( 98/123) 68 ( 64/ 94) 62 ( 76/123) 38 ( 36/ 94) 18 ( 22/123) 6 ( 6/ 94) over 15 over 10 over 7 under -12 under -13 under -8 under -1 9.4 -0.3 10.0 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORNN1 78 ( 73/ 94) 74 ( 72/ 97) 71 ( 67/ 94) 58 ( 56/ 97) 32 ( 30/ 94) 22 ( 21/ 97) 16 ( 15/ 94) over 17 over 16 over 4 under -8 under -7 under -12 under -11 10.7 -0.1 9.4 -1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PALN1 93 ( 87/ 94) 93 ( 90/ 97) 88 ( 83/ 94) 84 ( 81/ 97) 73 ( 69/ 94) 57 ( 55/ 97) 47 ( 44/ 94) over 2 under -3 under -13 under -34 under -48 under -47 under -42 27.0 -26.4 29.0 -29.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PASN1 95 ( 89/ 94) 94 (116/123) 87 ( 82/ 94) 77 ( 95/123) 60 ( 56/ 94) 40 ( 49/123) 23 ( 22/ 94) spot-on 0 under -4 under -12 under -27 under -35 under -30 under -18 18.0 -18.0 21.6 -21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STMN1 84 ( 79/ 94) 85 (104/123) 82 ( 77/ 94) 62 ( 76/123) 30 ( 28/ 94) 15 ( 18/123) 9 ( 8/ 94) over 11 over 5 under -7 under -12 under -5 under -5 under -4 7.0 -2.4 6.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- STTN1 78 ( 73/ 94) 75 ( 73/ 97) 78 ( 73/ 94) 63 ( 61/ 97) 47 ( 44/ 94) 36 ( 35/ 97) 30 ( 28/ 94) over 17 over 15 under -3 under -13 under -22 under -26 under -25 17.3 -8.1 15.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRK1 96 ( 90/ 94) 96 ( 93/ 97) 90 ( 85/ 94) 66 ( 64/ 97) 36 ( 34/ 94) 23 ( 22/ 97) 16 ( 15/ 94) under -1 under -6 under -15 under -16 under -11 under -13 under -11 10.4 -10.4 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - LWRREP (LRP) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CNKK1 98 ( 90/ 92) 96 ( 91/ 95) 92 ( 85/ 92) 69 ( 66/ 95) 46 ( 42/ 92) 19 ( 18/ 95) 10 ( 9/ 92) under -3 under -6 under -17 under -19 under -21 under -9 under -5 11.4 -11.4 14.4 -14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CYCK1 97 ( 89/ 92) 93 ( 88/ 95) 88 ( 81/ 92) 72 ( 68/ 95) 53 ( 49/ 92) 26 ( 25/ 95) 17 ( 16/ 92) under -2 under -3 under -13 under -22 under -28 under -16 under -12 13.7 -13.7 16.4 -16.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GUIN1 96 ( 88/ 92) 95 ( 90/ 95) 82 ( 75/ 92) 57 ( 54/ 95) 40 ( 37/ 92) 22 ( 21/ 95) 7 ( 6/ 92) under -1 under -5 under -7 under -7 under -15 under -12 under -2 7.0 -7.0 9.2 -9.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDYN1 98 ( 90/ 92) 93 ( 88/ 95) 77 ( 71/ 92) 48 ( 46/ 95) 33 ( 30/ 92) 16 ( 15/ 95) 10 ( 9/ 92) under -3 under -3 under -2 over 2 under -8 under -6 under -5 4.1 -3.6 4.2 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVRN1 96 ( 87/ 91) 92 ( 86/ 93) 93 ( 85/ 91) 75 ( 70/ 93) 52 ( 47/ 91) 24 ( 22/ 93) 16 ( 15/ 91) under -1 under -2 under -18 under -25 under -27 under -14 under -11 14.0 -14.0 17.2 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNDK1 77 ( 71/ 92) 74 ( 70/ 95) 70 ( 64/ 92) 57 ( 54/ 95) 46 ( 42/ 92) 21 ( 20/ 95) 17 ( 16/ 92) over 18 over 16 over 5 under -7 under -21 under -11 under -12 12.9 -1.7 12.0 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - UPRSMO (USH) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ARNK1 82 ( 76/ 93) 85 (115/136) 75 ( 70/ 93) 60 ( 81/136) 23 ( 21/ 93) 11 ( 15/136) 2 ( 2/ 93) over 13 over 5 spot-on 0 under -10 over 2 under -1 over 3 4.9 1.7 3.6 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ELWK1 100 ( 93/ 93) 98 (133/136) 82 ( 76/ 93) 51 ( 69/136) 26 ( 24/ 93) 4 ( 6/136) 2 ( 2/ 93) under -5 under -8 under -7 under -1 under -1 over 6 over 3 4.4 -1.9 4.6 -2.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GDEK1 95 ( 88/ 93) 96 (130/136) 90 ( 84/ 93) 74 (100/136) 43 ( 40/ 93) 22 ( 30/136) 9 ( 8/ 93) spot-on 0 under -6 under -15 under -24 under -18 under -12 under -4 11.3 -11.3 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HYSK1 99 ( 92/ 93) 99 (134/136) 97 ( 90/ 93) 92 (125/136) 66 ( 61/ 93) 28 ( 38/136) 18 ( 17/ 93) under -4 under -9 under -22 under -42 under -41 under -18 under -13 21.3 -21.3 26.4 -26.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OKYK1 68 ( 63/ 93) 71 ( 97/136) 58 ( 54/ 93) 46 ( 62/136) 20 ( 19/ 93) 12 ( 16/136) 4 ( 4/ 93) over 27 over 19 over 17 over 4 over 5 under -2 over 1 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSLK1 96 ( 89/ 93) 91 ( 89/ 98) 86 ( 80/ 93) 57 ( 56/ 98) 40 ( 37/ 93) 14 ( 14/ 98) 5 ( 5/ 93) under -1 under -1 under -11 under -7 under -15 under -4 spot-on 0 5.6 -5.6 7.6 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUSK1 85 ( 79/ 93) 86 (117/136) 77 ( 72/ 93) 61 ( 83/136) 40 ( 37/ 93) 15 ( 20/136) 13 ( 12/ 93) over 10 over 4 under -2 under -11 under -15 under -5 under -8 7.9 -3.9 7.4 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCSK1 82 ( 76/ 93) 67 ( 91/136) 77 ( 72/ 93) 48 ( 65/136) 31 ( 29/ 93) 14 ( 19/136) 11 ( 10/ 93) over 13 over 23 under -2 over 2 under -6 under -4 under -6 8.0 2.9 7.4 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SKTK1 100 ( 93/ 93) 100 (136/136) 100 ( 93/ 93) 92 (125/136) 70 ( 65/ 93) 34 ( 46/136) 23 ( 21/ 93) under -5 under -10 under -25 under -42 under -45 under -24 under -18 24.1 -24.1 29.2 -29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WAAK1 85 ( 79/ 93) 87 (118/136) 81 ( 75/ 93) 74 (100/136) 41 ( 38/ 93) 20 ( 27/136) 15 ( 14/ 93) over 10 over 3 under -6 under -24 under -16 under -10 under -10 11.3 -7.6 11.8 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - LWRSMO (LSH) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ADAK1 99 ( 81/ 82) 99 ( 81/ 82) 88 ( 72/ 82) 70 ( 57/ 82) 41 ( 34/ 82) 10 ( 8/ 82) 4 ( 3/ 82) under -4 under -9 under -13 under -20 under -16 spot-on 0 over 1 9.0 -8.7 11.6 -11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLTK1 77 ( 63/ 82) 77 ( 63/ 82) 74 ( 61/ 82) 60 ( 49/ 82) 21 ( 17/ 82) 4 ( 3/ 82) 1 ( 1/ 82) over 18 over 13 over 1 under -10 over 4 over 6 over 4 8.0 5.1 6.8 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENTK1 73 ( 60/ 82) 67 ( 55/ 82) 50 ( 41/ 82) 33 ( 27/ 82) 11 ( 9/ 82) 1 ( 1/ 82) 1 ( 1/ 82) over 22 over 23 over 25 over 17 over 14 over 9 over 4 16.3 16.3 17.6 17.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LINK1 96 ( 79/ 82) 93 ( 76/ 82) 88 ( 72/ 82) 67 ( 55/ 82) 22 ( 18/ 82) 4 ( 3/ 82) 1 ( 1/ 82) under -1 under -3 under -13 under -17 over 3 over 6 over 4 6.7 -3.0 8.4 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNSK1 82 ( 67/ 82) 82 ( 67/ 82) 77 ( 63/ 82) 55 ( 45/ 82) 30 ( 25/ 82) 6 ( 5/ 82) 0 ( 0/ 82) over 13 over 8 under -2 under -5 under -5 over 4 over 5 6.0 2.6 4.8 0.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MPSK1 77 ( 63/ 82) 77 ( 63/ 82) 77 ( 63/ 82) 67 ( 55/ 82) 35 ( 29/ 82) 12 ( 10/ 82) 5 ( 4/ 82) over 18 over 13 under -2 under -17 under -10 under -2 spot-on 0 8.9 0.0 8.8 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MTRK1 89 ( 73/ 82) 87 ( 71/ 82) 80 ( 66/ 82) 56 ( 46/ 82) 28 ( 23/ 82) 11 ( 9/ 82) 4 ( 3/ 82) over 6 over 3 under -5 under -6 under -3 under -1 over 1 3.6 -0.7 3.6 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NCMK1 80 ( 66/ 82) 71 ( 58/ 82) 55 ( 45/ 82) 37 ( 30/ 82) 13 ( 11/ 82) 7 ( 6/ 82) 2 ( 2/ 82) over 15 over 19 over 20 over 13 over 12 over 3 over 3 12.1 12.1 13.4 13.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLSK1 77 ( 63/ 82) 74 ( 61/ 82) 67 ( 55/ 82) 41 ( 34/ 82) 17 ( 14/ 82) 2 ( 2/ 82) 1 ( 1/ 82) over 18 over 16 over 8 over 9 over 8 over 8 over 4 10.1 10.1 9.8 9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSBK1 93 ( 76/ 82) 93 ( 76/ 82) 88 ( 72/ 82) 73 ( 60/ 82) 32 ( 26/ 82) 6 ( 5/ 82) 2 ( 2/ 82) over 2 under -3 under -13 under -23 under -7 over 4 over 3 7.9 -5.3 10.0 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PTIK1 96 ( 89/ 93) 95 ( 90/ 95) 92 ( 86/ 93) 75 ( 71/ 95) 34 ( 32/ 93) 9 ( 9/ 95) 4 ( 4/ 93) under -1 under -5 under -17 under -25 under -9 over 1 over 1 8.4 -7.9 11.4 -11.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLNK1 89 ( 83/ 93) 89 ( 85/ 95) 84 ( 78/ 93) 63 ( 60/ 95) 22 ( 20/ 93) 5 ( 5/ 95) 2 ( 2/ 93) over 6 over 1 under -9 under -13 over 3 over 5 over 3 5.7 -0.6 6.2 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TSCK1 94 ( 77/ 82) 94 ( 77/ 82) 83 ( 68/ 82) 66 ( 54/ 82) 15 ( 12/ 82) 5 ( 4/ 82) 2 ( 2/ 82) over 1 under -4 under -8 under -16 over 10 over 5 over 3 6.7 -1.3 8.6 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODK1 90 ( 78/ 87) 90 ( 78/ 87) 86 ( 75/ 87) 63 ( 55/ 87) 41 ( 36/ 87) 10 ( 9/ 87) 1 ( 1/ 87) over 5 spot-on 0 under -11 under -13 under -16 spot-on 0 over 4 7.0 -4.4 8.0 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - BIGBLUE (BBL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BARN1 96 ( 88/ 92) 90 (150/167) 82 ( 75/ 92) 50 ( 83/167) 32 ( 29/ 92) 10 ( 16/167) 8 ( 7/ 92) under -1 spot-on 0 under -7 spot-on 0 under -7 spot-on 0 under -3 2.6 -2.6 2.8 -2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEAN1 93 ( 86/ 92) 92 (153/167) 79 ( 73/ 92) 56 ( 94/167) 32 ( 29/ 92) 16 ( 27/167) 7 ( 6/ 92) over 2 under -2 under -4 under -6 under -7 under -6 under -2 4.1 -3.6 5.0 -5.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLRK1 96 ( 86/ 90) 92 (151/165) 82 ( 74/ 90) 55 ( 90/165) 39 ( 35/ 90) 15 ( 25/165) 17 ( 15/ 90) under -1 under -2 under -7 under -5 under -14 under -5 under -12 6.6 -6.6 6.6 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CRTN1 98 ( 90/ 92) 96 (160/167) 88 ( 81/ 92) 65 (109/167) 38 ( 35/ 92) 10 ( 16/167) 3 ( 3/ 92) under -3 under -6 under -13 under -15 under -13 spot-on 0 over 2 7.4 -6.9 9.4 -9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DRGN1 83 ( 76/ 92) 83 (138/167) 70 ( 64/ 92) 49 ( 82/167) 27 ( 25/ 92) 11 ( 18/167) 7 ( 6/ 92) over 12 over 7 over 5 over 1 under -2 under -1 under -2 4.3 2.9 3.2 2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DWEN1 96 ( 88/ 92) 96 (160/167) 78 ( 72/ 92) 60 (100/167) 25 ( 23/ 92) 17 ( 28/167) 2 ( 2/ 92) under -1 under -6 under -3 under -10 spot-on 0 under -7 over 3 4.3 -3.4 5.2 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FKFK1 94 ( 85/ 90) 95 (157/165) 82 ( 74/ 90) 58 ( 96/165) 24 ( 22/ 90) 13 ( 21/165) 9 ( 8/ 90) over 1 under -5 under -7 under -8 over 1 under -3 under -4 4.1 -3.6 4.8 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRBN1 96 ( 88/ 92) 94 (157/167) 78 ( 72/ 92) 60 (101/167) 35 ( 32/ 92) 14 ( 23/167) 8 ( 7/ 92) under -1 under -4 under -3 under -10 under -10 under -4 under -3 5.0 -5.0 6.2 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBGK1 97 ( 89/ 92) 93 (156/167) 82 ( 75/ 92) 49 ( 82/167) 27 ( 25/ 92) 5 ( 9/167) 5 ( 5/ 92) under -2 under -3 under -7 over 1 under -2 over 5 spot-on 0 2.9 -1.1 3.6 -1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRYK1 96 ( 88/ 92) 92 (153/167) 82 ( 75/ 92) 50 ( 83/167) 30 ( 28/ 92) 14 ( 23/167) 7 ( 6/ 92) under -1 under -2 under -7 spot-on 0 under -5 under -4 under -2 3.0 -3.0 3.6 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPK1 31 ( 28/ 90) 17 ( 28/165) 28 ( 25/ 90) 11 ( 18/165) 16 ( 14/ 90) 6 ( 10/165) 9 ( 8/ 90) over 64 over 73 over 47 over 39 over 9 over 4 under -4 34.3 33.1 34.4 34.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRPN1 98 ( 90/ 92) 96 (161/167) 86 ( 79/ 92) 71 (118/167) 38 ( 35/ 92) 25 ( 41/167) 5 ( 5/ 92) under -3 under -6 under -11 under -21 under -13 under -15 spot-on 0 9.9 -9.9 13.2 -13.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWDN1 99 ( 91/ 92) 96 (161/167) 85 ( 78/ 92) 63 (106/167) 37 ( 34/ 92) 9 ( 15/167) 7 ( 6/ 92) under -4 under -6 under -10 under -13 under -12 over 1 under -2 6.9 -6.6 8.4 -8.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SWRN1 97 ( 89/ 92) 94 (157/167) 86 ( 79/ 92) 63 (106/167) 25 ( 23/ 92) 13 ( 21/167) 5 ( 5/ 92) under -2 under -4 under -11 under -13 spot-on 0 under -3 spot-on 0 4.7 -4.7 6.2 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLBN1 88 ( 81/ 92) 82 (137/167) 68 ( 63/ 92) 51 ( 86/167) 43 ( 40/ 92) 14 ( 23/167) 12 ( 11/ 92) over 7 over 8 over 7 under -1 under -18 under -4 under -7 7.4 -1.1 7.6 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WSHK1 96 ( 88/ 92) 94 (157/167) 83 ( 76/ 92) 68 (113/167) 38 ( 35/ 92) 16 ( 26/167) 10 ( 9/ 92) under -1 under -4 under -8 under -18 under -13 under -6 under -5 7.9 -7.9 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - KANSAS (KSR) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVUK1 84 ( 68/ 81) 78 ( 63/ 81) 72 ( 58/ 81) 44 ( 36/ 81) 17 ( 14/ 81) 2 ( 2/ 81) 0 ( 0/ 81) over 11 over 12 over 3 over 6 over 8 over 8 over 5 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHPK1 96 ( 88/ 92) 95 ( 89/ 94) 86 ( 79/ 92) 60 ( 56/ 94) 36 ( 33/ 92) 11 ( 10/ 94) 8 ( 7/ 92) under -1 under -5 under -11 under -10 under -11 under -1 under -3 6.0 -6.0 7.6 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DELK1 100 ( 92/ 92) 97 ( 91/ 94) 87 ( 80/ 92) 66 ( 62/ 94) 41 ( 38/ 92) 24 ( 23/ 94) 16 ( 15/ 92) under -5 under -7 under -12 under -16 under -16 under -14 under -11 11.6 -11.6 13.0 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DSOK1 80 ( 65/ 81) 72 ( 58/ 81) 62 ( 50/ 81) 49 ( 40/ 81) 23 ( 19/ 81) 2 ( 2/ 81) 2 ( 2/ 81) over 15 over 18 over 13 over 1 over 2 over 8 over 3 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ESTK1 62 ( 57/ 92) 61 ( 57/ 94) 47 ( 43/ 92) 28 ( 26/ 94) 11 ( 10/ 92) 1 ( 1/ 94) 0 ( 0/ 92) over 33 over 29 over 28 over 22 over 14 over 9 over 5 20.0 20.0 20.4 20.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTRK1 89 ( 72/ 81) 88 ( 71/ 81) 65 ( 53/ 81) 40 ( 32/ 81) 11 ( 9/ 81) 1 ( 1/ 81) 0 ( 0/ 81) over 6 over 2 over 10 over 10 over 14 over 9 over 5 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JNCK1 88 ( 69/ 78) 86 ( 67/ 78) 76 ( 59/ 78) 60 ( 47/ 78) 29 ( 23/ 78) 9 ( 7/ 78) 6 ( 5/ 78) over 7 over 4 under -1 under -10 under -4 over 1 under -1 4.0 -0.6 4.0 -2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCKK1 93 ( 14/ 15) 93 ( 14/ 15) 93 ( 14/ 15) 87 ( 13/ 15) 47 ( 7/ 15) 20 ( 3/ 15) 7 ( 1/ 15) over 2 under -3 under -18 under -37 under -22 under -10 under -2 13.4 -12.9 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAWK1 85 ( 69/ 81) 80 ( 65/ 81) 72 ( 58/ 81) 41 ( 33/ 81) 25 ( 20/ 81) 9 ( 7/ 81) 6 ( 5/ 81) over 10 over 10 over 3 over 9 spot-on 0 over 1 under -1 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCPK1 86 ( 70/ 81) 79 ( 64/ 81) 68 ( 55/ 81) 54 ( 44/ 81) 31 ( 25/ 81) 10 ( 8/ 81) 0 ( 0/ 81) over 9 over 11 over 7 under -4 under -6 spot-on 0 over 5 6.0 3.1 5.6 1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LISK1 46 ( 42/ 92) 45 ( 42/ 94) 39 ( 36/ 92) 30 ( 28/ 94) 22 ( 20/ 92) 13 ( 12/ 94) 4 ( 4/ 92) over 49 over 45 over 36 over 20 over 3 under -3 over 1 22.4 21.6 21.4 20.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LWRK1 89 ( 72/ 81) 85 ( 69/ 81) 84 ( 68/ 81) 83 ( 67/ 81) 63 ( 51/ 81) 30 ( 24/ 81) 11 ( 9/ 81) over 6 over 5 under -9 under -33 under -38 under -20 under -6 16.7 -13.6 21.0 -19.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MHKK1 25 ( 20/ 81) 23 ( 19/ 81) 19 ( 15/ 81) 7 ( 6/ 81) 4 ( 3/ 81) 0 ( 0/ 81) 0 ( 0/ 81) over 70 over 67 over 56 over 43 over 21 over 10 over 5 38.9 38.9 39.4 39.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSCK1 96 ( 88/ 92) 90 ( 85/ 94) 71 ( 65/ 92) 47 ( 44/ 94) 26 ( 24/ 92) 6 ( 6/ 94) 1 ( 1/ 92) under -1 spot-on 0 over 4 over 3 under -1 over 4 over 4 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MWCK1 98 ( 54/ 55) 96 ( 53/ 55) 93 ( 51/ 55) 73 ( 40/ 55) 55 ( 30/ 55) 27 ( 15/ 55) 13 ( 7/ 55) under -3 under -6 under -18 under -23 under -30 under -17 under -8 15.0 -15.0 18.8 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PXCK1 93 ( 86/ 92) 93 ( 87/ 94) 71 ( 65/ 92) 51 ( 48/ 94) 33 ( 30/ 92) 6 ( 6/ 94) 5 ( 5/ 92) over 2 under -3 over 4 under -1 under -8 over 4 spot-on 0 3.1 -0.3 4.0 -0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSSK1 88 ( 81/ 92) 84 ( 79/ 94) 73 ( 67/ 92) 52 ( 49/ 94) 36 ( 33/ 92) 13 ( 12/ 94) 8 ( 7/ 92) over 7 over 6 over 2 under -2 under -11 under -3 under -3 4.9 -0.6 4.8 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TNGK1 91 ( 84/ 92) 86 ( 81/ 94) 65 ( 60/ 92) 27 ( 25/ 94) 4 ( 4/ 92) 3 ( 3/ 94) 1 ( 1/ 92) over 4 over 4 over 10 over 23 over 21 over 7 over 4 10.4 10.4 13.0 13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TNRK1 0 ( 0/ 15) 0 ( 0/ 15) 0 ( 0/ 15) 0 ( 0/ 15) 0 ( 0/ 15) 0 ( 0/ 15) 0 ( 0/ 15) over 95 over 90 over 75 over 50 over 25 over 10 over 5 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOPK1 99 ( 91/ 92) 94 ( 88/ 94) 79 ( 73/ 92) 53 ( 50/ 94) 36 ( 33/ 92) 19 ( 18/ 94) 9 ( 8/ 92) under -4 under -4 under -4 under -3 under -11 under -9 under -4 5.6 -5.6 6.2 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPAK1 88 ( 71/ 81) 86 ( 70/ 81) 74 ( 60/ 81) 54 ( 44/ 81) 37 ( 30/ 81) 15 ( 12/ 81) 0 ( 0/ 81) over 7 over 4 over 1 under -4 under -12 under -5 over 5 5.4 -0.6 5.2 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WMGK1 84 ( 68/ 81) 78 ( 63/ 81) 68 ( 55/ 81) 46 ( 37/ 81) 11 ( 9/ 81) 4 ( 3/ 81) 0 ( 0/ 81) over 11 over 12 over 7 over 4 over 14 over 6 over 5 8.4 8.4 8.6 8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - UPRMOT (MTA) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ABRN1 90 ( 84/ 93) 88 (170/193) 71 ( 66/ 93) 63 (122/193) 42 ( 39/ 93) 17 ( 32/193) 10 ( 9/ 93) over 5 over 2 over 4 under -13 under -17 under -7 under -5 7.6 -4.4 8.6 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AGYM7 99 ( 91/ 92) 96 (184/192) 83 ( 76/ 92) 70 (134/192) 53 ( 49/ 92) 12 ( 23/192) 12 ( 11/ 92) under -4 under -6 under -8 under -20 under -28 under -2 under -7 10.7 -10.7 12.8 -12.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ATCI4 100 ( 93/ 93) 96 (186/193) 89 ( 83/ 93) 63 (121/193) 29 ( 27/ 93) 6 ( 11/193) 4 ( 4/ 93) under -5 under -6 under -14 under -13 under -4 over 4 over 1 6.7 -5.3 8.2 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDFI4 90 ( 83/ 92) 87 (167/192) 77 ( 71/ 92) 76 (146/192) 62 ( 57/ 92) 40 ( 76/192) 26 ( 24/ 92) over 5 over 3 under -2 under -26 under -37 under -30 under -21 17.7 -15.4 19.6 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BRLM7 65 ( 60/ 92) 31 ( 59/192) 58 ( 53/ 92) 22 ( 43/192) 33 ( 30/ 92) 5 ( 9/192) 2 ( 2/ 92) over 30 over 59 over 17 over 28 under -8 over 5 over 3 21.4 19.1 23.4 20.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FFXM7 97 ( 90/ 93) 81 (157/193) 87 ( 81/ 93) 50 ( 97/193) 23 ( 21/ 93) 2 ( 3/193) 1 ( 1/ 93) under -2 over 9 under -12 spot-on 0 over 2 over 8 over 4 5.3 1.3 6.2 1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLLN1 97 ( 90/ 93) 91 (176/193) 77 ( 72/ 93) 53 (102/193) 43 ( 40/ 93) 18 ( 35/193) 17 ( 16/ 93) under -2 under -1 under -2 under -3 under -18 under -8 under -12 6.6 -6.6 6.4 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBLN1 97 ( 90/ 93) 91 (176/193) 73 ( 68/ 93) 60 (116/193) 38 ( 35/ 93) 22 ( 43/193) 13 ( 12/ 93) under -2 under -1 over 2 under -10 under -13 under -12 under -8 6.9 -6.3 7.6 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HMBI4 98 ( 91/ 93) 97 (187/193) 89 ( 83/ 93) 61 (117/193) 28 ( 26/ 93) 5 ( 10/193) 4 ( 4/ 93) under -3 under -7 under -14 under -11 under -3 over 5 over 1 6.3 -4.6 8.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HNKI4 96 ( 89/ 93) 89 (171/193) 76 ( 71/ 93) 53 (103/193) 30 ( 28/ 93) 8 ( 15/193) 3 ( 3/ 93) under -1 over 1 under -1 under -3 under -5 over 2 over 2 2.1 -0.7 2.4 -1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ICLI4 99 ( 92/ 93) 97 (188/193) 87 ( 81/ 93) 74 (143/193) 61 ( 56/ 92) 31 ( 59/193) 20 ( 18/ 92) under -4 under -7 under -12 under -24 under -36 under -21 under -15 17.0 -17.0 20.0 -20.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LGNI4 96 ( 89/ 93) 93 (179/193) 82 ( 76/ 93) 58 (112/193) 33 ( 31/ 93) 13 ( 25/193) 9 ( 8/ 93) under -1 under -3 under -7 under -8 under -8 under -3 under -4 4.9 -4.9 5.8 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MYVM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 95 (182/192) 83 ( 76/ 92) 79 (152/192) 65 ( 60/ 92) 35 ( 67/192) 27 ( 25/ 92) under -3 under -5 under -8 under -29 under -40 under -25 under -22 18.9 -18.9 21.4 -21.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PSGI4 98 ( 91/ 93) 92 (177/193) 91 ( 85/ 93) 68 (132/193) 57 ( 53/ 93) 25 ( 49/193) 29 ( 27/ 93) under -3 under -2 under -16 under -18 under -32 under -15 under -24 15.7 -15.7 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDOI4 99 ( 92/ 93) 96 (186/193) 95 ( 88/ 93) 71 (137/193) 33 ( 31/ 93) 8 ( 16/193) 4 ( 4/ 93) under -4 under -6 under -20 under -21 under -8 over 2 over 1 8.9 -8.0 11.4 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPI4 99 ( 92/ 93) 94 (182/193) 87 ( 81/ 93) 54 (105/193) 30 ( 28/ 93) 9 ( 18/193) 6 ( 6/ 93) under -4 under -4 under -12 under -4 under -5 over 1 under -1 4.4 -4.1 5.2 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SMHM7 100 ( 92/ 92) 97 (187/192) 95 ( 87/ 92) 83 (159/192) 64 ( 59/ 92) 40 ( 76/192) 26 ( 24/ 92) under -5 under -7 under -20 under -33 under -39 under -30 under -21 22.1 -22.1 25.8 -25.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNCK1 96 ( 89/ 93) 88 (169/193) 78 ( 73/ 93) 49 ( 94/193) 38 ( 35/ 93) 23 ( 44/193) 15 ( 14/ 93) under -1 over 2 under -3 over 1 under -13 under -13 under -10 6.1 -5.3 6.4 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SSTM7 93 ( 86/ 92) 92 (176/192) 79 ( 73/ 92) 61 (117/192) 42 ( 39/ 92) 13 ( 25/192) 13 ( 12/ 92) over 2 under -2 under -4 under -11 under -17 under -3 under -8 6.7 -6.1 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UION1 98 ( 91/ 93) 95 (183/193) 84 ( 78/ 93) 66 (128/193) 40 ( 37/ 93) 16 ( 31/193) 4 ( 4/ 93) under -3 under -5 under -9 under -16 under -15 under -6 over 1 7.9 -7.6 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - GRAND (GRA) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHTI4 91 ( 86/ 94) 90 (169/188) 66 ( 62/ 94) 62 (116/188) 47 ( 44/ 94) 28 ( 52/188) 17 ( 16/ 94) over 4 spot-on 0 over 9 under -12 under -22 under -18 under -12 11.0 -7.3 12.2 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHZM7 94 ( 88/ 94) 95 (178/188) 76 ( 71/ 94) 60 (112/188) 39 ( 37/ 94) 16 ( 31/188) 12 ( 11/ 94) over 1 under -5 under -1 under -10 under -14 under -6 under -7 6.3 -6.0 7.2 -7.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DVSI4 97 ( 91/ 94) 95 (179/188) 82 ( 77/ 94) 66 (125/188) 34 ( 32/ 94) 15 ( 28/188) 10 ( 9/ 94) under -2 under -5 under -7 under -16 under -9 under -5 under -5 7.0 -7.0 8.4 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GAZM7 98 ( 92/ 94) 98 (184/188) 90 ( 85/ 94) 71 (134/188) 50 ( 47/ 94) 22 ( 42/188) 22 ( 21/ 94) under -3 under -8 under -15 under -21 under -25 under -12 under -17 14.4 -14.4 16.2 -16.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MOLI4 89 ( 84/ 94) 88 (165/188) 72 ( 68/ 94) 63 (119/188) 35 ( 33/ 94) 16 ( 31/188) 12 ( 11/ 94) over 6 over 2 over 3 under -13 under -10 under -6 under -7 6.7 -3.6 6.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVZM7 94 ( 88/ 94) 91 (171/188) 68 ( 64/ 94) 61 (114/188) 47 ( 44/ 94) 17 ( 32/188) 10 ( 9/ 94) over 1 under -1 over 7 under -11 under -22 under -7 under -5 7.7 -5.4 9.6 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PATM7 76 ( 71/ 94) 38 ( 71/188) 69 ( 65/ 94) 28 ( 52/188) 38 ( 36/ 94) 10 ( 18/188) 12 ( 11/ 94) over 19 over 52 over 6 over 22 under -13 spot-on 0 under -7 17.0 11.3 18.6 13.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRIM7 96 ( 90/ 94) 93 (175/188) 73 ( 69/ 94) 57 (108/188) 35 ( 33/ 94) 20 ( 37/188) 18 ( 17/ 94) under -1 under -3 over 2 under -7 under -10 under -10 under -13 6.6 -6.0 6.4 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRMI4 97 ( 91/ 94) 91 (171/188) 77 ( 72/ 94) 57 (108/188) 34 ( 32/ 94) 19 ( 36/188) 9 ( 8/ 94) under -2 under -1 under -2 under -7 under -9 under -9 under -4 4.9 -4.9 5.6 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNZM7 94 ( 88/ 94) 94 (176/188) 71 ( 67/ 94) 54 (102/188) 46 ( 43/ 94) 19 ( 35/188) 17 ( 16/ 94) over 1 under -4 over 4 under -4 under -21 under -9 under -12 7.9 -6.4 8.4 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TTZM7 99 ( 93/ 94) 96 (181/188) 81 ( 76/ 94) 66 (124/188) 38 ( 36/ 94) 29 ( 55/188) 20 ( 19/ 94) under -4 under -6 under -6 under -16 under -13 under -19 under -15 11.3 -11.3 12.0 -12.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - MCYGNE (MDC) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCGK1 100 ( 28/ 28) 100 ( 28/ 28) 82 ( 23/ 28) 64 ( 18/ 28) 36 ( 10/ 28) 25 ( 7/ 28) 25 ( 7/ 28) under -5 under -10 under -7 under -14 under -11 under -15 under -20 11.7 -11.7 11.4 -11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNDK1 85 ( 80/ 94) 84 (103/122) 68 ( 64/ 94) 50 ( 61/122) 34 ( 32/ 94) 19 ( 23/122) 15 ( 14/ 94) over 10 over 6 over 7 spot-on 0 under -9 under -9 under -10 7.3 -0.7 6.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNEK1 72 ( 68/ 94) 52 ( 64/122) 55 ( 52/ 94) 31 ( 38/122) 18 ( 17/ 94) 6 ( 7/122) 7 ( 7/ 94) over 23 over 38 over 20 over 19 over 7 over 4 under -2 16.1 15.6 17.6 17.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OSMK1 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) over 95 over 90 over 75 over 50 over 25 over 10 over 5 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTWK1 100 ( 28/ 28) 96 ( 27/ 28) 82 ( 23/ 28) 64 ( 18/ 28) 39 ( 11/ 28) 25 ( 7/ 28) 25 ( 7/ 28) under -5 under -6 under -7 under -14 under -14 under -15 under -20 11.6 -11.6 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QNMK1 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) 0 ( 0/ 28) over 95 over 90 over 75 over 50 over 25 over 10 over 5 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDNK1 84 ( 79/ 94) 83 (100/121) 68 ( 64/ 94) 44 ( 53/121) 30 ( 28/ 94) 8 ( 10/121) 5 ( 5/ 94) over 11 over 7 over 7 over 6 under -5 over 2 spot-on 0 5.4 4.0 5.4 3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPOK1 100 ( 28/ 28) 100 ( 28/ 28) 86 ( 24/ 28) 61 ( 17/ 28) 36 ( 10/ 28) 18 ( 5/ 28) 7 ( 2/ 28) under -5 under -10 under -11 under -11 under -11 under -8 under -2 8.3 -8.3 10.2 -10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - OSAGE (OSG) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts ============================================================================================================================= Forecast Group - LWRMOT (MTB) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGM7 97 ( 76/ 78) 96 ( 75/ 78) 83 ( 65/ 78) 63 ( 49/ 78) 38 ( 30/ 78) 23 ( 18/ 78) 15 ( 12/ 78) under -2 under -6 under -8 under -13 under -13 under -13 under -10 9.3 -9.3 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLVM7 95 ( 87/ 92) 95 (159/167) 79 ( 73/ 92) 63 (105/167) 38 ( 35/ 92) 5 ( 8/167) 0 ( 0/ 92) spot-on 0 under -5 under -4 under -13 under -13 over 5 over 5 6.4 -3.6 8.0 -6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BONM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 92 (154/167) 93 ( 86/ 92) 73 (122/167) 38 ( 35/ 92) 10 ( 17/167) 12 ( 11/ 92) under -3 under -2 under -18 under -23 under -13 spot-on 0 under -7 9.4 -9.4 11.2 -11.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVCM7 68 ( 39/ 57) 67 ( 38/ 57) 60 ( 34/ 57) 46 ( 26/ 57) 28 ( 16/ 57) 18 ( 10/ 57) 14 ( 8/ 57) over 27 over 23 over 15 over 4 under -3 under -8 under -9 12.7 7.0 10.6 6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CAXM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 90 (151/167) 87 ( 80/ 92) 60 (101/167) 15 ( 14/ 92) 4 ( 7/167) 2 ( 2/ 92) under -3 spot-on 0 under -12 under -10 over 10 over 6 over 3 6.3 -0.9 7.6 -1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FYTM7 97 ( 89/ 92) 96 (161/167) 79 ( 73/ 92) 59 ( 99/167) 12 ( 11/ 92) 0 ( 0/167) 0 ( 0/ 92) under -2 under -6 under -4 under -9 over 13 over 10 over 5 7.0 1.0 8.4 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZLM7 96 ( 88/ 92) 97 (162/167) 88 ( 81/ 92) 75 (125/167) 42 ( 39/ 92) 28 ( 47/167) 20 ( 18/ 92) under -1 under -7 under -13 under -25 under -17 under -18 under -15 13.7 -13.7 16.0 -16.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JCMM7 93 ( 86/ 92) 95 (158/167) 85 ( 78/ 92) 71 (118/167) 37 ( 34/ 92) 14 ( 23/167) 9 ( 8/ 92) over 2 under -5 under -10 under -21 under -12 under -4 under -4 8.3 -7.7 10.4 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 97 (162/167) 89 ( 82/ 92) 62 (104/167) 33 ( 30/ 92) 18 ( 30/167) 14 ( 13/ 92) under -3 under -7 under -14 under -12 under -8 under -8 under -9 8.7 -8.7 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KAYM7 46 ( 42/ 92) 37 ( 42/113) 46 ( 42/ 92) 29 ( 33/113) 22 ( 20/ 92) 11 ( 12/113) 5 ( 5/ 92) over 49 over 53 over 29 over 21 over 3 under -1 spot-on 0 22.3 22.0 21.4 21.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KBRM7 93 ( 86/ 92) 94 (157/167) 89 ( 82/ 92) 69 (116/167) 32 ( 29/ 92) 10 ( 16/167) 11 ( 10/ 92) over 2 under -4 under -14 under -19 under -7 spot-on 0 under -6 7.4 -6.9 8.8 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCCM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 99 (165/167) 92 ( 85/ 92) 70 (117/167) 17 ( 16/ 92) 9 ( 15/167) 7 ( 6/ 92) under -3 under -9 under -17 under -20 over 8 over 1 under -2 8.6 -6.0 11.0 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KCTM7 97 ( 89/ 92) 96 (108/113) 86 ( 79/ 92) 65 ( 73/113) 20 ( 18/ 92) 9 ( 10/113) 4 ( 4/ 92) under -2 under -6 under -11 under -15 over 5 over 1 over 1 5.9 -3.9 7.6 -5.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSDM7 95 ( 87/ 92) 94 (106/113) 90 ( 83/ 92) 63 ( 71/113) 23 ( 21/ 92) 11 ( 12/113) 8 ( 7/ 92) spot-on 0 under -4 under -15 under -13 over 2 under -1 under -3 5.4 -4.9 7.0 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KSVM7 58 ( 53/ 92) 47 ( 53/113) 52 ( 48/ 92) 20 ( 23/113) 16 ( 15/ 92) 7 ( 8/113) 8 ( 7/ 92) over 37 over 43 over 23 over 30 over 9 over 3 under -3 21.1 20.3 21.6 21.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LKCM7 99 ( 91/ 92) 98 (163/167) 88 ( 81/ 92) 73 (122/167) 25 ( 23/ 92) 10 ( 16/167) 1 ( 1/ 92) under -4 under -8 under -13 under -23 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 over 4 7.4 -6.3 8.8 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTTM7 96 ( 88/ 92) 97 (162/167) 88 ( 81/ 92) 69 (116/167) 21 ( 19/ 92) 4 ( 7/167) 3 ( 3/ 92) under -1 under -7 under -13 under -19 over 4 over 6 over 2 7.4 -4.0 9.8 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RBXM7 91 ( 41/ 45) 89 ( 40/ 45) 89 ( 40/ 45) 64 ( 29/ 45) 40 ( 18/ 45) 27 ( 12/ 45) 20 ( 9/ 45) over 4 over 1 under -14 under -14 under -15 under -17 under -15 11.4 -10.0 12.2 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RICM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 92 (154/167) 86 ( 79/ 92) 64 (107/167) 36 ( 33/ 92) 7 ( 12/167) 5 ( 5/ 92) under -3 under -2 under -11 under -14 under -11 over 3 spot-on 0 6.3 -5.4 8.2 -7.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RIFM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 98 (164/167) 88 ( 81/ 92) 64 (107/167) 32 ( 29/ 92) 20 ( 33/167) 14 ( 13/ 92) under -3 under -8 under -13 under -14 under -7 under -10 under -9 9.1 -9.1 10.4 -10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- VLYM7 98 ( 90/ 92) 92 (154/167) 87 ( 80/ 92) 63 (106/167) 34 ( 31/ 92) 11 ( 19/167) 9 ( 8/ 92) under -3 under -2 under -12 under -13 under -9 under -1 under -4 6.3 -6.3 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPHM7 97 ( 89/ 92) 98 (163/167) 92 ( 85/ 92) 89 (148/167) 57 ( 52/ 92) 34 ( 56/167) 23 ( 21/ 92) under -2 under -8 under -17 under -39 under -32 under -24 under -18 20.0 -20.0 24.0 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================