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Last Map Update: Sat, Sep 26, 2026 at 11:10:32 pm MST

Watches, Warnings & Advisories

National Weather Service NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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National Weather Service Albuquerque, NM

National Weather Service NWS Tucson Arizona

Coastal Flood Advisory

Beach Hazards Statement

Flood Watch

Hydrologic Outlook

Tropical Moisture Ahead

Excessive Rainfall Outlook

Rainfall Probabilities

Temperature Outlook

An influx of tropical moisture is expected to reach the Desert Southwest beginning on Sunday, and peaking Monday into Tuesday. This moisture coupled with large scale lift ahead of an approaching weather system will result in widespread precipitation across Arizona. There is still high uncertainty in rainfall totals as well as the potential for severe weather.

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Moderate risk (3/4) for excessive rainfall across much of the eastern portions of AZ on Monday and Tuesday, while a Slight Risk remains for most areas of SC AZ. Periods of heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding of low water crossing and washes.

Rainfall will be most widespread across the region from Monday through Tuesday night. Probabilities of receiving at least 0.50" is high for much of AZ with even a modest probability (>50%) for totals exceeding an inch across portions of southcentral AZ. Higher totals greater than 2.00" will also be possible, mainly over the foothills and higher terrain.