Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid September 19, 2024 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated October 17, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Drought intensified to Severe (D2) drought over western Missouri into a small part of far southeast Kansas and the Moderate (D1) drought expanded into portions of central MO as well. Drought Intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of Vernon, St Clair, Barton, Cedar, Dade, Polk, and Lawrence counties in western MO and a small portion of Cherokee and Crawford counties in southeast Kansas. D1 (Moderate Drought): All of Bourbon and the remaining portions of Crawford and Cherokee counties in southeast Kansas. In southwest Missouri, all or portions of Newton, McDonald, Barry, Stone, Lawrence, Christian, Greene, Polk, Webster, Hickory, Benton, Camden, Morgan and Miller counties. Required Slide https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2.html State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Drought intensified to Severe (D2) over western Missouri into far southeast Kansas Moderate (D1) drought spread into portions of central Missouri. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Drought conditions have degraded quickly over the past month over western Missouri Central Missouri has also seen an increase in drought. Areas from the Lake of the Ozarks southeast into south central Missouri saw no change over the past month. Precipitation Main Takeaways Many areas west of Highway 65 into southeast Kansas have received less than 2 inches of rain in the past 30 days…with portions seeing less than a half inch of rain. Areas east of Highway 65 received widespread 1-4”…and even some pockets of 4-6” inches. Nearly all areas saw less than normal rain…with some receiving less than 25% of normal over the past month. Required Slide Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflows over the past week over Southeast Kansas into western Missouri have as little as less than 10% of normal over the Spring River and parts of the Neosho and Elk river basins. Sufficient rain and spring fed streams over much of Missouri remained at 25-75% of normal flow. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri. https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Significant rainfall deficients were noted over southeast Kansas to along Highway 65 in Missouri. The Marmaton and Spring Rivers as well as most smaller creeks including some east of Highway 65 were in a low water threshold. Agricultural Impacts Fall plantings have been impacted with wilting and bug infestation reported with some estimating extreme degree of loss to near crop failure. Pastures are providing marginal feed, requiring supplemental feeding in some regions. Fire Hazard Impacts Local Fire Chiefs have reported widespread browning of vegetation and a recent increase in grass fires. Other Impacts There are no additional known impacts at this time. Mitigation actions The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. The University of Missouri Extension Office has set up a Psychological Service Clinic to aid farmers and ranchers. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Agricultural Impacts Main Takeaways Crop moistures over southeast Kansas into western Missouri were abnormally dry…with the Soil Moisture Ranking as low as below the 5th percentile. South central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks continued to be slightly dry to favorably moist https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures look to continue into at least early October. Precipitation favors a slightly below normal outlook October Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The temperature pattern is trending toward equal chances for above, below and normal temperatures for October. The precipitation outlook favors a continued below normal amount of rainfall in October. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways After temperatures trended toward equal chances for above/below/normal in October, the longer term outlook for November and December slightly favors above normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook in October favors below normal chances, then November and December offers equal chances. Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Monthly drought (not shown) through the the end of the year favors a continued to potentially worsening drought for southeast Kansas into at least western Missouri. Impacts over central through south central may be more limited. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts NWS Springfield Drought Monitor Resources Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety