Drought Information Statement for South Central NE and North Central KS Valid October 3, 2024 This product will likely be updated in Nov. 2024, or possibly sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gid/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Issued By: NWS Hastings, NE Contact Information: nws.hastings@noaa.gov Unfortunately, the entire 30-county NWS Hastings coverage area is now assigned at least the Abnormally Dry (D0) category for the first time in over a year (since Sept. 2023). Following a hiatus during May-June 2024, Severe Drought (D2) returned to a few southeastern local counties in late-summer and still remains. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 Severe Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Thayer, Nuckolls, Jewell, Mitchell D1 Moderate Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Adams, Clay, Fillmore, York, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D0 Abnormally Dry: Includes all or part of the following counties: Valley, Greeley, Nance, Sherman, Howard, Merrick, Polk, Dawson, Buffalo, Hall, Hamilton, York, Gosper, Phelps, Kearney, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Furnas, Harlan, Franklin, Webster, Phillips, Smith Short-Term Precipitation Recap (the last week) and Forecast (the next week) - Recap of U.S. Drought Monitor data week Sept. 24-Oct. 1 : (NOTE: any precipitation that fell since 7am TUESDAY didn’t count for this week’s Drought Monitor) The Sept. 24-Oct. 1 Drought Monitor Week featured EXTREMELY DRY conditions area-wide. The ONLY precipitation consisted of some spotty, limited rain that occurred during the day on Sept. 24th mainly within counties along/south of the KS border (amounts mainly 0.10” or less). - Looking ahead the upcoming week Oct. 4-10: UNFORTUNATELY, the recent dryness looks to continue marching on. The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for ALMOST ZERO chance of rain across our 30-county coverage area through at least Oct. 10th. Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 1 Week Change Drought Worsened: Widespread 1-class degradation (from D-nothing to D0) across several central/south central NE counties No Change: There was NO CHANGE in drought classification within much of the area. Drought Improved: NO drought improvement occurred Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 4 and 12 Week Change 4-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1) widespread 1-class degradation in several Nebraska counties…2) limited 1-class improvement in KS 12-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: widespread 1-2 class degradation most of the area, and localized 3-class degradation mainly Thayer/Jewell Precipitation (Last 7-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The Sept. 24-Oct. 1 Drought Monitor Week featured EXTREMELY DRY conditions area-wide. The ONLY precipitation consisted of some spotty, limited rain that occurred during the day on Sept. 24th mainly within counties along/south of the KS border (amounts mainly 0.10” or less). Precipitation (Last 30-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The vast majority of our coverage area had FAR BELOW NORMAL precipitation over the last 30 days. The majority of our area measured between 0.05-0.80...or roughly 2-40 percent of normal. In fact, the month of September was among the Top-5 driest on record in the Nebraska Tri Cities (Grand Island/Hastings/Kearney) The primary, limited-in-area exception of above normal rainfall (as much as 2-4+ in some spots) fell within parts of mainly Smith, Jewell and Mitchell counties in KS. In our Nebraska coverage area, only very tiny parts of mainly Greeley, Howard, Merrick and Webster counties saw totals of at least 1.00-1.50. Precipitation (Last 90-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: Roughly 97 percent of our coverage area had BELOW NORMAL precipitation over the last 90 days, including roughly 15 percent of the area that received LESS THAN HALF NORMAL. The majority of our area measured somewhere between 4.00-7.50...or roughly 45-85 percent of normal. The very limited pockets of above normal precipitation were primarily confined to parts of the following counties: Furnas, Smith, Jewell, Osborne, Mitchell. Meanwhile, the very-driest locations were scattered all throughout the area, but if anything tended to stand out the most in counties such as York, Polk, Valley in Nebraska, along with southern Rooks in Kansas. Temperature Trends (Last 7 and 30 Days) (Last 7 Days): The final several days of September into the first few days of October featured WELL-ABOVE NORMAL temperatures across our area, with most places around 6-7 degrees above normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts: Thanks to roughly 3 months of overall-dryness, many stream/river basins in our coverage area…especially from the Platte River southward into northern Kansas…are experiencing below normal flows (including severe hydrologic drought especially along the Little Blue/Big Blue basins). Agricultural Impacts: USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Nebraska/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/ USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php Fire Hazard Impacts: Given the combination of pronounced recent dryness, seasonal drying of vegetation/fuels, and an increase in windy days now that the fall season is underway, fire danger has worsened over the last few weeks and will likely continue to worsen until any appreciable rains hopefully arrive at some point. Other Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways: Thanks to roughly 3 months of overall-dryness, many stream/river basins in our coverage area…especially from the Platte River southward into northern Kansas…are experiencing below normal flows. The worst local streamflow conditions…severe hydrologic drought…is most pronounced within the Little Blue/Big Blue basins in Nebraska. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways: UNFORTUNATELY, the recent dryness looks to continue marching on. The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for ALMOST ZERO chance of rain across our 30-county coverage area through at least Oct. 10th. 8-14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid Oct. 11-17 Temperatures: There is a very likely chance of continued above normal temperatures through mid-October, with high temperatures (on most days) into the 70s/80s. Precipitation: Our entire coverage area leans fairly strongly toward a continuation of below normal precipitation through mid-October. Monthly Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid For OCTOBER 2024 Temperatures: Our entire coverage area leans toward October (as a whole) featuring above normal temperatures…especially the western half. Precipitation: Our entire coverage area leans toward October (as a whole) featuring below normal precipitation. Drought Outlook (Seasonal) Main Takeaways: Between now and the end of the year, there is a fairly strong signal that those local areas currently in official drought categories (D1-or-worse) will remain in drought. However, at least for now, there is less certainty that those “better off” areas (currently assigned D0) will worsen to official drought categories. Contact Information & References National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska For feedback, comments, questions specific to THIS INFO PACKET: NWS Hastings: Ryan Pfannkuch ryan.pfannkuch@noaa.gov Mike Moritz michael.moritz@noaa.gov (402) 462-2127 Other contacts for NE/KS drought input: UNL Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience Eric Hunt, Ph.D. ehunt2@unl.edu (402) 617-4190 Kansas State University Assistant State Climatologist Matthew Sittel msittel@ksu.edu (785) 532-1087 The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.