Drought Information Statement for South Central NE and North Central KS Valid May 9, 2024 This product will be updated sometime in June 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gid/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Issued By: NWS Hastings, NE Contact Information: nws.hastings@noaa.gov The entire NWS Hastings coverage area is now void of Severe Drought (D2) for the first time since February 2022! However, due to mainly longer-term dryness, roughly 27 percent of our 30-county area is still in Moderate Drought (D1), with an additional roughly 32 percent of our area indicated as Abnormally Dry (D0) U.S. Drought Monitor National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska Drought Intensity and Extent D1 (Moderate Drought): Includes all or part of the following counties: Merrick, Polk, Hall, Hamilton, York, Kearney, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D0: (Abnormally Dry): Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Nance, Sherman, Howard, Merrick, Buffalo, Hall, Hamilton, Kearney, Adams, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell Short-Term Precipitation Recap (the last week) and Forecast (the next week) - Recap of U.S. Drought Monitor data week May 1-7 : (NOTE: any precipitation that fell since 7am TUESDAY “didn’t count” for this week’s Drought Monitor) The May 1-7 “Drought Monitor Week” featured widespread, beneficial rainfall across our entire coverage area! Over the course of a few rounds of showers/thunderstorms, nearly our entire area received between 1-3 inches. There were very few exceptions on either side of this range, with only a few localized pockets exceeding 3 inches, while conversely, very little of our area fell short of 1 inch. - Looking ahead May 10-16: Although the May 10-16 time frame does not look overly-wet, chances for somewhat-widespread rain and thunderstorm activity are mainly centered on Sunday-Sunday night (May 12-13) and again around Wednesday-Thursday (May 15-16). The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for widespread amounts of generally 0.25-0.75 inch across our area…generally lowest north of I-80 and highest in north central KS. Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 1 Week Change Drought Worsened: NO drought class degradation occurred No Change: There was NO CHANGE in drought classification within the gray-shaded areas Drought Improved: Widespread 1-class improvement occurred within many counties! This included the removal of all remaining Severe Drought (D2) from the area Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 4 and 12 Week Change NWS Hastings 4-week & 12-week Drought Class Changes…vs. current May 7 maps 4-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: widespread 1-class improvement in several counties…limited 1-class degradation mainly in Osborne/Mitchell 12-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: widespread 1-2 class improvement in several counties…limited 1-class degradation mainly in Osborne/Mitchell Precipitation (Last 7-Day Drought Monitor Period) The May 1-7 “Drought Monitor Week” featured widespread, beneficial rainfall across our entire coverage area! Over the course of a few rounds of showers/thunderstorms, nearly our entire area received between 1-3 inches. There were very few exceptions on either side of this range, with only a few localized pockets exceeding 3 inches, while conversely, very little of our area fell short of 1 inch. Precipitation (Last 30-Day Drought Monitor Period) The vast majority of our coverage area had ABOVE NORMAL precipitation over the last 30 days. The majority of our area measured between 2.50-6.00 inches...or roughly 90-200 percent of normal. The greatest concentration of amounts at least 3-6 inches focused primarily north of a line from Beaver City-Hastings-York. In contrast, the greatest concentration of amounts 2.50 inches or less were found within portions of various counties south of that same line, including (but not limited to): Webster, Phillips, Rooks and Osborne. Precipitation (Last 90-Day Drought Monitor Period) Roughly two-thirds of our coverage area had ABOVE NORMAL precipitation over the last 90 days. The majority of our area measured somewhere between 4-8 inches...or roughly 75-150 percent of normal. The greatest concentration of above normal amounts at least 6-8 inches focused primarily north of a line from Beaver City-Hastings-York. In contrast, the greatest concentration of at least slightly below normal amounts no more than 3-5 inches were found within portions of various counties south of that same line, particularly: Thayer, Phillips, Osborne and Mitchell. Temperature Trends (Last 7 and 30 Days) (Last 7 Days): The first week of May actually featured VERY-NEAR-NORMAL temperatures across our area, with most places within 1 degree either side of normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts: USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Nebraska/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/ USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php Fire Hazard Impacts: There are no known significant impacts/threats at this time. In fact, vegetation fuel status has recently been deemed unfavorable for widespread fire growth across the NWS Hastings area due to seasonal green-up and recent above normal rainfall. Other Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Thanks to recent above-normal rainfall across our area, the vast majority of our area is seeing normal to above normal flows on area rivers. The main exception in our coverage area involves some of the creeks in southern Osborne/Mitchell counties in KS that feed into the Saline River…where below normal flow is currently indicated. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast Although the May 10-16 time frame does not look overly-wet, chances for somewhat-widespread rain and thunderstorm activity are mainly centered on Sunday-Sunday night (May 12-13) and again around Wednesday-Thursday (May 15-16). The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for widespread amounts of generally 0.25-0.75 inch across our area…generally lowest north of I-80 and highest in north central KS. 8-14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid May 17-23 Temperatures: The vast majority of our coverage area is expected to have near-normal temperatures (daily highs mainly in the 70s to around 80) Precipitation: Our entire coverage area features a slight lean toward above normal precipitation. Monthly Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid For MAY 2024 Temperatures: Nearly our entire coverage area is slated to have “equal chances” of having above, below or near-normal temperatures. Precipitation: Our coverage area is on the “dividing line” between a slight lean toward above normal precipitation (mainly in KS) and having equal chances of having above, below or near-normal precipitation (most of our Nebraska area). Drought Outlook (Seasonal) Between now and the end of July, those portions of our coverage area currently assigned a drought category are currently expected to either observe some degree of improvement or perhaps have drought removed altogether. Contact Information & References National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska For feedback, comments, questions specific to THIS INFO PACKET: Ryan Pfannkuch ryan.pfannkuch@noaa.gov Mike Moritz michael.moritz@noaa.gov (402) 462-2127 Other contacts for NE/KS drought input: UNL Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience Eric Hunt, Ph.D. ehunt2@unl.edu (402) 617-4190 Kansas State University Assistant State Climatologist Matthew Sittel msittel@ksu.edu (785) 532-1087 The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.