Drought Information Statement for South Central NE and North Central KS Valid March 21, 2024 Issued By: NWS Hastings, NE Contact Information: nws.hastings@noaa.gov This product will be updated in April 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/gid/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor Drought Intensity and Extent: D2 Severe Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Nance, Howard, Merrick, Polk, Buffalo, Hall, Hamilton, York, Kearney, Adams, Clay, Fillmore, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Rooks, Smith, Osborne, Jewell, Mitchell D1 Moderate Drought: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Nance, Sherman, Howard, Buffalo, Kearney, Adams, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Thayer, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell D0 Abnormally Dry: Includes all or part of the following counties: Greeley, Sherman, Howard, Buffalo, Kearney, Furnas, Franklin, Webster, Nuckolls, Phillips, Smith, Jewell, Rooks, Osborne, Mitchell Short-Term Precipitation Recap (the last week) and Forecast (the next week) - Recap of U.S. Drought Monitor “data week” March 12-18: (NOTE: any precipitation that fell since 7am TUESDAY “didn’t count” for this week’s Drought Monitor) The March 12-18 “Drought Monitor Week” was a “mixed bag” across our coverage area. Fortunately, the majority of our area received at least some precip during rounds of mainly lighter rain (and also a few heavier showers/storms) on the 13th-14th, but amounts varied considerably. Most of our area measured somewhere between 0.15-0.60”. However, pockets of several counties along/south of the NE/KS border received at least 1” (where thunderstorms were more common). In contrast, large parts of several far northern/western local counties (especially north of I-80 and west of Highway 183) picked up less than 0.10”. - Looking ahead March 22-28: Particularly the Sunday-Monday time frame (March 24-25) looks to feature fairly widespread precipitation across our coverage area…initially in the form of rain/thunderstorms and eventually transitioning to at least a modest amount of snow. The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for widespread amounts of 0.50-1.25” across our area…generally lowest in KS and highest north of I-80. Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 1 Week Change Drought Worsened: A small sliver of Greeley County degraded by 1-class from D-nothing to D0 No Change: There was NO CHANGE in drought categories across the vast majority of the NWS Hastings coverage area Drought Improved: Several small portions of counties along/south of the NE/KS border saw 1-class improvement (including D0 > D-nothing and D1 > D0 Recent Change in Drought Intensity - 4 and 12 Week Change NWS Hastings 4-week & 12-week Drought Class Changes…vs. current March 19 maps 4-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: 1-class improvement parts of various southern counties…isolated 1-class degradation in Greeley County 12-WEEK CHANGE MAIN TAKEAWAYS: widespread 1-2 class improvement…isolated 3-CLASS improvement in Rooks County KS ! Precipitation (Last 7-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: The March 12-18 “Drought Monitor Week” was a “mixed bag” across our coverage area. Fortunately, the majority of our area received at least some precip during rounds of mainly lighter rain (and also a few heavier showers/storms) on the 13th-14th, but amounts varied considerably. Most of our area measured somewhere between 0.15-0.60”. However, pockets of several counties along/south of the NE/KS border received at least 1” (where thunderstorms were more common). In contrast, large parts of several far northern/western local counties (especially north of I-80 and west of Highway 183) picked up less than 0.10”. Precipitation (Last 30-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: Unfortunately, the latest 30-day period has trended toward featured BELOW NORMAL precipitation across the majority (but not all) of our coverage area. The majority of our area received only between 0.20-0.75” of total liquid equivalent…or roughly 20-70% of normal. The overall-wettest areas (greatest concentration of totals of 1” or more) focused within portions of several counties mainly along and south of Highway 6 and southward into KS. The overall-driest areas (greatest concentration of totals 0.20” or less) focused within several counties mainly north of I-80, along with the southern Mitchell County KS area. Precipitation (Last 90-Day Drought Monitor Period) Main Takeaways: Despite more recent prevailing dryness, the latest 90-day period still featured at least slightly ABOVE NORMAL precipitation across the vast majority (but not quite all) of our area.The majority of our area received between 2-4” of total liquid equivalent…or roughly 75-150% of normal. “Meteorological winter” 2023-24 as a whole provided widespread, beneficial precipitation. Some of the very-wettest areas in the last 90 days (including some totals at least 4.00-4.50”) focused within parts of several counties mainly from Highway 6 southward into KS. The overall-driest counties (greatest concentration of 1.50-2.00” at most) focused within parts of several far northern/western counties such as Greeley/Furnas. Temperature Trends (Last 7 and 30 Days) Main Takeaways (Last 7 Days): Despite a bit of a “roller-coaster” during the last week with daily highs a varied mix of mainly 40s/50s/60s, the last week as a whole has averaged SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL across our area, with most places averaging 0-2° above normal. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Agricultural Impacts: USDA Nebraska Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Nebraska/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/ USDA Kansas Crop Progress and Condition Reports can be found at https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Kansas/Publications/Crop_Progress_and_Condition/index.php Fire Hazard Impacts: There are no known significant impacts/threats at this time (especially with a cooler/wetter weather pattern coming up). That being said, occasional, mainly minor (low acreage) wildfires have occurred within our area on some recent afternoons that had at least “near-critical” fire weather conditions…meaning a combination of low relative humidity (especially 25% or lower) and breezy wind gusts (20+ MPH). Other Impacts: There are no known impacts at this time Mitigation Actions: Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways: Near-normal to even slightly above normal streamflow currently prevails mainly within the Loup/Platte River basins in central/northern parts of our Nebraska coverage area. Unfortunately, below normal flows (including pockets of moderate to severe hydrologic drought) have persisted within parts of the southern half of our coverage area. This is especially evident within the Little Blue/Big Blue basins in south central/southeast portions of our Nebraska coverage area, along with the Solomon River basin particularly within Mitchell County KS. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast Main Takeaways: Particularly the Sunday-Monday time frame (March 24-25) looks to feature fairly widespread precipitation across our coverage area…initially in the form of rain/thunderstorms and eventually transitioning to at least a modest amount of snow. The latest official WPC precipitation forecast, along with ensemble forecast model data, calls for widespread amounts of at least 0.50-1.25” across our area…generally lowest in KS and highest north of I-80. 8-14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid March 29 - April 4 Main Takeaways: Temperatures: Our entire coverage area features at least a slight lean toward below normal temperatures. Daily highs look to mainly prevail in the 40s/50s. Precipitation: Our coverage area features a slight lean toward above normal precipitation, as an overall-active weather pattern is expected to prevail. Monthly Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center (CPC) CPC Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks…Valid For APRIL 2024 (JUST RELEASED) Main Takeaways: Temperatures: Our entire coverage area is indicated to have “equal chances” of having above, below or near-normal temperatures. Precipitation: Our entire coverage area features at least a slight lean toward above normal April precipitation. Drought Outlook (Seasonal) Main Takeaways: Going hand in hand with an expected slight lean toward above normal precipitation this spring-early summer, this outlook indicates that those parts of our coverage area currently assigned any drought category are expected to either observe some degree of improvement or perhaps have drought removed altogether. Contact Information & References National Weather Service Hastings, Nebraska For feedback, comments, questions specific to THIS INFO PACKET: NWS Hastings: Ryan Pfannkuch ryan.pfannkuch@noaa.gov Mike Moritz michael.moritz@noaa.gov (402) 462-2127 Other contacts for NE/KS drought input: UNL Extension Educator of Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience Eric Hunt, Ph.D. ehunt2@unl.edu (402) 617-4190 Kansas State University Assistant State Climatologist Matthew Sittel msittel@ksu.edu (785) 532-1087 The U.S. Drought Monitor is produced through a partnership between the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.