Drought Information Statement for New Mexico Valid February 6, 2025 Issued By: NWS Albuquerque Contact Information: This product will be updated March 7, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/ABQ/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates for regional drought status updates. Drought is slowly expanding throughout New Mexico due to exceptionally dry winter conditions. Warm temperatures, high winds and low relative humidities are aggravating drought conditions and leading to critical fire weather. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for the southwest U.S. Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): For now, there are no areas of Exceptional Drought. D3 (Extreme Drought): A fringe of Extreme Drought exists along the southern border in the SW of the state. D2 (Severe Drought): Most of the Severe Drought conditions are confined to the lower 25% of the state, however Severe Drought is spreading along the NW border with Colorado. D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions exist in western NM and are developing in north central NM. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Widespread through western NM and developing in the NE . Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for the southwest U.S. Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: 1 category deterioration in many parts of NM. 2 category deterioration observed in western NM, No Change: Bands of no change observed in west-central and southern NM. Drought Improved: No improvement found anywhere in the state. EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. Precipitation Apart from some extremely localized point in the mountains, the state has largely seen no more that 0.01-0.5” of precipitation in the last 30 days. Roughly half of the state is showing 0-25% of what would be considered a normal amount of precipitation in the last 30 days. Far east central NM is the only area in the last month that approaches a normal amount of precipitation in the last 30 days. Image Caption: (Left) 30-day Precip (Right) 30-day Percent of Normal ending 02/06/25. Much of the state saw well below normal temperature conditions throughout an unusually frigid January. The four corners region remained above normal for temperatures throughout much of January. In the last week, we have seen high temperature records shattered by as much as 12° around the state including a reading of 87° in Roswell on 02/05/25. Link to HPRCC Temperature Image Caption: (Left) 7-day Temp Anomaly (Right) 30-day Temp Anomaly ending 02/02/2025. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow conditions are difficult to monitor at this time of year due to ice impacts on river gages. However, the USGS has determined that roughly half of the state is seeing below to much below normal streamflow. Agricultural Impacts At this point in the year agricultural impacts can be muted. However the latest report from the USDA points to several concerns including: 90% of the state is reporting topsoil and subsoil moisture conditions rated as poor or very poor. 49% of pasture and rangeland is listed as poor or very poor. 21% of the winter wheat crop is listed as poor. Fire Hazard Impacts As per the Southwest Coordination Center, 100-hour and 1000-hour dead fuel moisture values are at 14.25% and 11.71% of normal in the northern and southern parts of the state. Forecast conditions show a drying trend, with fuels moving into the 6-10% of normal range. Combined with dry windy conditions, the fuel impacts support increased fire danger throughout the state. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts This map shows how various river basins are performing compared to a 7-day average streamflow for the week of September 3 (30-year climatology). Roughly half of the state is below the 25th percentile for streamflow, with only a few pockets of the state reading as above the 75th percentile. It is important to keep in mind that the major river systems of New Mexico are largely controlled by dams and reservoirs and that “performance” is heavily influenced by human activity. It is also important to note that data quality during the winter is negatively impacted by ice effects on the stream gages that lead to those data being ignored in this analysis. Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid 9/3/2024 Agricultural Impacts NWS analysis of soil moisture is not as extreme as the ground-truthed data reported by the USDA, but it still shows dry conditions throughout much of the state. Crop moisture conditions are not reported during the winter months by the Climate Prediction Center. The latest February and March 2025 significant wildland fire potential outlooks shows above normal fire potential spreading throughout the eastern part of the state. Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Detailed information available on the interactive map Above. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Current 7 day forecasts call for 0.01-0.1” of precipitation, with the potential for greater amounts in the high elevations of the northern mountains. For context: this continues a trend of below average precipitation for New Mexico and will not help with soil/fuel moisture conditions. A return to more seasonal, cooler temperatures is expected to start on Sunday in the eastern part of the state and expand throughout the rest of New Mexico. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The latest CPC monthly precipitation outlook for February favors below normal precipitation in southern half of NM and equal chances for above, below or near normal conditions throughout the northern third of the state. The latest CPC monthly temperature outlook for February favors above normal temperatures for All of New Mexico, with strongest chances in the southeast. Image Caption: (Left) September Precip Outlook and (Right) Temperature Outlook Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Drought conditions are expected to PERSIST or DETERIORATE throughout much of the state in February. We are already seeing expansion of drought in areas not captured by this forecast, specifically the NE portion of New Mexico. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook