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Meteorological Development Laboratory
Verification Stations
Verification Measures
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A Proposal is out for review to terminate the Eta MOS guidance - comments due October 31, 2006
Proposal Details


WRF MOS Evaluation

The MOS forecast equations developed on the Eta model output have been applied to output from NCEP's parallel runs of the WRF model. A comparative verification was perfomed using Eta, parallel WRF and GFS MOS forecasts from March 1st through May 31st 2006. Verification scores are presented for our standard set of 355 verification sites for maximum, minimum, and 2-m temperature, dew point, probability of precipitation (POP), wind speed and direction, total sky cover, ceiling height, and visibility. More Details


Maximum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Minimum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
2-m Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Dew Point Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
6-hr POP
All sites Brier Score
CONUS Brier Score>
Alaska Brier Score
Hawaii/Puerto Rico Brier Score
12-hr POP
All sites Brier Score
CONUS Brier Score
Alaska Brier Score
Hawaii/Puerto Rico Brier Score
Total Sky Cover
All sites Heidke Skill Score
CONUS Heidke Skill Score
Alaska Heidke Skill Score
HI/PR Heidke Skill Score
Wind Speed
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Heidke Skill Score
CONUS Heidke Skill Score
Alaska Heidke Skill Score
HI/PR Heidke Skill Score
Wind Direction
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites % of errors < 30 degs
CONUS % of errors < 30 degs
Alaska % of errors < 30 degs
HI/PR % of errors < 30 degs

Ceiling Height
All sites Heidke Skill Score
CONUS Heidke Skill Score
Alaska Heidke Skill Score
HI/PR Heidke Skill Score
All sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score not available, insufficient data

Visibility
All sites Heidke Skill Score
CONUS Heidke Skill Score
Alaska Heidke Skill Score
HI/PR Heidke Skill Score
All sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score not available, insufficient data

National Weather Service
Office Of Science and Technology
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Statistical Modeling Branch
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Page last modified: 14 July 2006
Page Author: MOS Web Team
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