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Meteorological Development Laboratory
Verification Stations
Verification Measures
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Parallel GFS MOS Evaluation

The GFS MOS forecast equations have been applied to output from NCEP's parallel runs of the GFS model. A comparative verification was perfomed using parallel GFS and operational GFS MOS guidance from July 1st through October 31st, 2005, and September 1st, 2006 through March 31st, 2007. Verification scores are presented for maximum, minimum, and 2-m temperature, dew point, probability of precipitation (POP), wind speed and direction, total sky cover, ceiling height, and visibility.



Cool Season Verifications (October 2005, Oct. 2006 - Mar. 2007)

Maximum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Minimum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
2-m Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Dew Point Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
12-hr POP
All sites Brier Score
CONUS Brier Score
Alaska Brier Score
Hawaii/Puerto Rico Brier Score
Wind Speed
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Wind Dir.
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites % of errors < 30 degs
CONUS % of errors < 30 degs
Alaska % of errors < 30 degs
HI/PR % of errors < 30 degs
Ceiling Hgt.
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score
All sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
Visibility
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score
All sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
Sky Cover
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct

Warm Season Verifications (July - Sept. 2005, Sept. 2006)

Maximum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Minimum Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
2-m Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
Dew Point Temperature
All sites MAE
CONUS MAE
Alaska MAE
HI/PR MAE
All sites Bias
CONUS Bias
Alaska Bias
HI/PR Bias
12-hr POP
All sites Brier Score
CONUS Brier Score
Alaska Brier Score
Hawaii/Puerto Rico Brier Score
Ceiling Hgt.
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score
All sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
Visibility
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites Threat Score
CONUS Threat Score
Alaska Threat Score
HI/PR Threat Score
All sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct
Sky Cover
All sites HSS
CONUS HSS
Alaska HSS
HI/PR HSS
All sites % Correct
CONUS % Correct
Alaska % Correct
HI/PR % Correct

National Weather Service
Office Of Science and Technology
Meteorological Development Laboratory
Statistical Modeling Branch
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
Page last modified: 25 April 2007
Page Author: MOS Web Team
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