SWOP Weekly Weather Discussion

HEADLINE

An active weather pattern is ahead...with much above normal temperatures and possible severe weather early next week, followed by potentially frosty conditions by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

An upper-level low currently over the Great Lakes will lift northeastward as ridging builds into the Midwest over the upcoming weekend. As a result, high temperatures will climb well above normal for this time of year...reaching the lower 80s by Sunday, April 14th. A weak cold front is slated to drop southward through central Illinois by late Sunday, bringing little more than a few isolated showers and a shift in the wind. Conditions will remain unseasonably warm on Monday: however, clouds will be on the increase as the boundary begins to lift back northward as a warm front. A deep upper low is projected to come onshore in California over the weekend, then cross the Rockies into the Plains early next week. This highly dynamic system will interact with an increasingly warmer/more unstable airmass to trigger a significant outbreak of severe weather across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas on Monday. As the upper wave and its associated surface low approach from the southwest, a round of strong to severe thunderstorms is anticipated across central Illinois during the late afternoon and evening of Tuesday, April 16th. While the exact scope of this event remains uncertain, it is appearing increasingly likely that damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible. Stay tuned to later forecasts and statements for additional details. Once this system passes, warm and dry conditions are expected mid-week before a strong cold front dropping southward out of Canada brings more showers and thunderstorms to the region by Thursday, April 18th. Once this front passes, a surge of sharply colder air will arrive by the end of next week...potentially setting the stage for frost/freeze conditions by next Friday/Saturday.

The latest 6-10 day outlooks (Apr 17-Apr 21) from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) suggest ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation across central Illinois.

Issued: 4/12/24