July 2011 above normal temperatures

Summers are suppose to be hot for Kansas but July 2011 is becoming an exceptionally hot summer. The graph above represents a normal distrubition curve for the monthly average July high temperature for Wichita, KS. Typically the July monthly average high temperature will reside inside the purple area (95.5 F - 87.8 F) 68 percent of the time, or both purple and green areas (99.4 F - 83.9 F) 95 percent of the time. Any occurrences located in the red shaded area on the graph above are extreme temperature events. Wichita has only witnessed four extreme July heat waves: 1980, 1954, 1936, 1934 since records have been kept from 1889 to present, however the current 2011 July is well on its way to be in the same catergory. The red dot on the graph above denotes the current July 2011 rank with only a two percent chance of occurrence. The bad news is that the extended forecast shows a continuation of triple digit high temperatures through July 28th for Wichita which increases the odds of this July becoming an extreme heat wave. And unfortunately, looking at the previous summer heat waves of: 1980, 1954, 1936, 1934, the heat waves for these summers all extended into August. So there is a high probability that the current heat wave of 2011 will extend into August.