Area Forecast Discussion
This National Weather Service product is intended to provide a well-reasoned discussion of the meteorological thinking which went into the preparation of the Zone Forecast Product. The forecaster will try to focus on the most particular challenges of the forecast. The text will be written in plain language or in proper contractions. At the end of the discussion, there will be a list of all advisories, non-convective watches, and non-convective warnings. The term non-convective refers to weather that is not caused by thunderstorms. An intermediate Area Forecast Discussion will be issued when either significant forecast updates are being made or if interesting weather is expected to occur.
Coastal Waters Forecast (CWF)
The marine forecast for areas, including bays, harbors, and sounds, from a line approximating the mean high water mark (average height of high water over a 19-year period) along the mainland or near shore islands extending out to as much as 100 NM.
County Warning and Forecast Area
The group of counties for which a National Weather Service Forecast Office is responsible for issuing warnings and weather forecasts.
Ensemble Forecast
Multiple predictions from an ensemble of slightly different initial conditions and/or various versions of models. The objectives are to improve the accuracy of the forecast through averaging the various forecasts, which eliminates non-predictable components, and to provide reliable information on forecast uncertainties from the diversity amongst ensemble members. Forecasters use this tool to measure the likelihood of a forecast.
Ensemble Hydrologic Forecasting
In hydrologic terms, a process whereby a continuous hydrologic model is successively executed several times for the same forecast period by use of varied data input scenarios, or a perturbation of a key variable state for each model run. A common method employed to obtain a varied data input scenario is to use the historical meteorological record, with the assumption that several years of observed data covering the time period beginning on the current date and extending through the forecast period comprises a reasonable estimate of the possible range of future conditions.
Extended Forecast Discussion
This discussion is issued once a day around 2 PM EST (3 PM EDT) and is primarily intended to provide insight into guidance forecasts for the 3- to 5-day forecast period. The geographic focus of this discussion is on the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii). Although portions of this narrative will parallel the Hemispheric Map Discussion, a much greater effort is made to routinely relate the model forecasts and necessary modifications to weather forecasts, mainly in terms of temperature and precipitation.
Forecast
A statement of prediction.
Forecast Crest
In hydrologic terms, the highest elevation of river level, or stage, expected during a specified storm event.
Forecast Guidance
Computer-generated forecast materials used to assist the preparation of a forecast, such as numerical forecast models.
Forecast Issuance Stage
The stage which, when reached by a rising stream, represents the level where RFCs need to begin issuing forecasts for a non-routine (flood-only) forecast point. This stage is coordinated between WFO and RFC personnel and is not necessarily the same as action or alert stage. The needs of WFO/RFC partners and other users are considered in determining this stage.
Forecast Periods
Official definitions for NWS products:

Today...............................Sunrise to sunset
This afternoon..................noon till 6 p.m.
This evening.....................6 p.m. till sunset
Tonight.............................sunset till sunrise
Tomorrow.........................sunrise to sunset of the following day
Forecast Point
A location along a river or stream for which hydrologic forecast and warning services are provided by a WFO. The observed/forecast stage or discharge for a given forecast point can be assumed to represent conditions in a given reach (see /reach/).
Forecast valid for
The period of time the forecast is in effect beginning at a given day, date and time, and ending at a given day, date and time.
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
A weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) started the GEFS to address the nature of uncertainty in weather observations, which are used to initialize weather forecast models.
Global Forecast System
(GFS)- One of the operational forecast models run at NCEP. The GFS is run four times daily, with forecast output out to 384 hours.
Great Lakes Marine Forecast (MAFOR)
A National Weather Service coded summary appended to each of the Great Lakes Open Lakes forecasts.
High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF)
An ensemble of products from several different models running at ~3 km horizontal grid spacing.
High Seas Forecast
(HSF) - Marine forecasts for the major oceans of the world. In this context, major gulfs or seas (e.g., the Gulf of Mexico or the Bering Sea) are included within these forecast areas. Areas of responsibility for the U.S. are determined by international agreements under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS)
A probabilistic forecast tool with the goals to provide hydrologic forecasts including an analysis of “probable outcomes” and to minimize biases in the atmospheric models and in the hydrologic models.
Medium Range Forecast (MRF)
A configuration of the National Water Model (NWM) that runs every 6 hours and produces 3-hourly deterministic forecasts of streamflow and hydrologic states for the contiguous United States (ConUS). This configuration is an ensemble forecast with 7 members; member 1 extends out to 10 days, while members 2-7 extend out to 8.5 days. Meteorological forcing data are drawn from the GFS.
Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecast (MMEFS)
An automated short-term hydrologic ensemble forecast system which utilizes temperature and precipitation output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) GEFS and NAEFS meteorological models as inputs to River Forecast Center hydrologic models.
National Digital Forecast Database
(NDFD)- The National Weather Service's NDFD provides access to gridded forecasts of sensible weather elements (e.g., wind, wave height) through the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). NDFD contains a seamless mosaic of digital forecasts from NWS field offices working in collaboration with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The database is made available to all customers and partners from the public, private and academic sectors. Those customers and partners may use this data to create a wide range of text, graphic, gridded and image products of their own.
National Water Model Medium-Range Forecast (NWM MRF)
A 10-day streamflow forecast for the over 3.6 million waterway miles across the Nation, forced by the GFS and updated every 6 hours.
National Water Model Short-Range Forecast (NWM SRF)
An 18-hour streamflow forecast for the over 3.4 million waterway miles across the Nation, forced by the HRRR and updated hourly.
NAVTEX Forecast
(NAV) - A National Weather Service marine forecast combining various Coastal Waters and Offshore forecasts, optimized to accommodate transmission via NAVTEX.
Nearshore Forecast
(NSH) - National Weather Service seasonal marine forecasts for an areas of the Great Lakes extending from a line approximating mean low water datum along the coast or an island, including bays, harbors, and sounds, out to 5 nm. These forecasts are normally issued from Daylight Savings Time ~April 7 through December 31, though the dates may be shortened or extended based on local/regional requirements.
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)
An atmospheric ensemble of 20 members each from the NCEP GEFS and CMC EPS ensemble systems.
North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM)
One of the major weather models run by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for producing weather forecasts.
Numerical Forecasting
A computer forecast or prediction based on equations governing the motions and the forces affecting motion of fluids. The equations are based, or initialized, on specified weather or climate conditions at a certain place and time.
Offshore Waters Forecast
(OFF) - A National Weather Service marine forecast product for that portion of the oceans, gulfs, and seas beyond the coastal waters extending to a specified distance from the coastline, to a specified depth contour, or covering an area defined by specific latitude and longitude points.
Open Lakes Forecast
(GLF) - A National Weather Service marine forecast product for the U.S. waters within a Great Lake not including the waters covered by an existing Nearshore Waters Forecast (NSH). When the seasonal Nearshore forecast is not issued, the Open Lake forecast includes a forecast of nearshore waters.
Persistence Forecast
A forecast that the current weather condition will persist and that future weather will be the same as the present (e.g., if it is raining today, a forecast predicting rain tonight).
Probability Forecast
A forecast of the probability that one or more of a mutually exclusive set of weather conditions will occur.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
A spatial and temporal precipitation forecast that will predict the potential amount of future precipitation for a specified region, or area.
River Forecast
An internal product issued by RFCs to other NWS offices. An RVF contains stage and/ or flow forecasts for specific locations based on existing, and forecasted hydrometeorologic conditions. The contents of these products are used by the HSA office to prepare Flood Warnings (FLW), Flood Statements (FLS), River Statements (RVS), as well as other products available to the public.
River Forecast Center
Centers that serve groups of Weather Service Forecast offices and Weather Forecast offices, in providing hydrologic guidance and is the first echelon office for the preparation of river and flood forecasts and warnings.
Short Range Forecast (SRF)
A configuration of the National Water Model (NWM) that runs hourly and produces hourly deterministic forecasts of streamflow and hydrologic states out to 18 hours for the contiguous United States (ConUS), and out 48 hours for Hawaii and Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands. For ConUS, meteorological forcing data are drawn from the HRRR and RAP. For Hawaii and Puerto Rico/U.S. Virgin Islands, meteorological forcing data are drawn from the NAM-Nest with HIRESW WRF-ARW.
Short Term Forecast
A product used to convey information regarding weather or hydrologic events in the next few hours.
State Forecast Product
This National Weather Service product is intended to give a good general picture of what weather may be expected in the state during the next 5 days. The first 2 days of the forecast is much more specific than the last 3 days. In comparison with the Zone Forecast Product, this product will be much more general.
Surf Zone Forecast
(SRF) - A National Weather Service routine or event driven forecast product geared toward non-boating marine users issued for an area extending from the area of water between the high tide level on the beach and the seaward side of the breaking waves.
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast
This NWS aviation product is a concise statement of the expected meteorological conditions at an airport during a specified period (usually 24 hours). Each country is allowed to make modifications or exceptions to the code for use in each particular country. TAFs use the same weather code found in METAR weather reports.
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
One of three branches of the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). It provides year-round products involving marine forecasting, aviation forecasts and warnings (SIGMETs), and surface analyses. The unit also provides satellite interpretation and satellite rainfall estimates for the international community. In addition, TAFB provides support to NHC through manpower and tropical cyclone intensity estimates from the Dvorak technique.
Weather Forecast Office
(Abbrev. WFO) - this type of National Weather Service office is responsible for issuing advisories, warnings, statements, and short term forecasts for its county warning area

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