A strong, long-duration atmospheric river will bring excessive rainfall, flash flooding, and very strong winds to southwest Oregon and northwest California through Thursday. A High Risk (level 4 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued. A storm system over the northern Plains will produce locally heavy snow in North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Read More >
** PLEASE NOTE: as of Nov. 1: NWS Hastings HAS DISCONTINUED FREEZE WARNINGS THIS FALL for our entire 30-county coverage area. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories will again become possible as needed when the growing season starts up again in spring 2022 **
According to longer-term averages, the NWS Hastings coverage area of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas is NOW ACTUALLY PAST THE 1-3 WEEK PERIOD THAT FEATURES THE AVERAGE DATE OF THE FIRST FALL HARD/KILLING FREEZE!
Of course, as outlined extensively in the data presented below, the first fall frost/freeze dates can vary tremendously from one year to the next, and just within the past 30 years, "first freezes" have ranged anywhere from mid-September to early-November.
-- Last year in 2020, most of our coverage area had its first true fall freeze and/or hard freeze sometime between Oct. 16-26. --
Please refer to the wealth of information within the tabs below (including tables and maps of average frost/freeze/hard freeze dates) to "stay on top" of the frost/freeze situation across the local area this fall. This includes the "Looking Ahead" section just below, as it will highlight any nights within the next 7-10 days that appear to hold frost/freeze potential (if any). Finally, check out the last tab for a glance back at the RECORD-EARLIEST frost/freeze that parts of our area experienced on Sep. 3, 1974!
Looking Ahead: ** Fall 2021 Potential-For-FREEZE Forecast ** (valid through Nov. 2):
(updated: Nov. 1)
** The 2021 growing season has EFFECTIVELY ENDED **
Looking Back to Last Fall (2020):
Before continuing on, here are a few definitions...
Frost Frost occurs when there is a solid deposition of water vapor from the air. Frost will form when solid surfaces are cooled below the dew point. An air temperature range of 33°- 36°, along with very light winds, is usually needed to initiate frost formation. At least minor damage is possible to plants. One must keep in mind that a frost is not guaranteed if humidity isn't high enough and/or winds are roughly 8+ MPH. The range of average dates for the first fall frost across most of Freeze Freeze occurs when the temperature drops to 32°-or-lower. A freeze will result in significant damage to many unprotected plants, especially if the temperature remains at-or-below freezing for several hours. The range of average dates for the first fall freeze across most of Hard Freeze Hard freeze occurs when the temperature reaches 28°-or-lower for at least a few hours. It usually means that many types of plants and most seasonal vegetation will be destroyed. The range of average dates for the first hard freeze of the fall across most of |
South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas
30 Year Average First Frost/Freeze Dates (1990-2019)
(click image to enlarge)
Average 36° Date (First Possible Frost) |
Average 32° Date (First Freeze) |
Average 28° Date (First Hard Freeze) |
Fall Frost/Freeze Data For South Central Nebraska and North Central Kansas
(based on 30-year averages from 1991-2020)
Avg First Fall Date Of: 36° Or Colder 32° Or Colder 28° Or Colder |
1991-2020 Earliest Date Of: 32° Or Colder |
1991-2020 Latest Date Of: 32° Or Colder |
First Fall 2021 Date Of: 36° Or Colder 32° Or Colder 28° Or Colder |
|
Greeley | Sep. 24 Oct. 1 Oct. 9 |
Sep. 15, 1993 | Oct. 16, 2015 | Sep. 22 (34º) Oct. 17 (30º) Oct. 22 (28º) |
Osceola | Oct. 4 Oct. 13 Oct. 19 |
Sep. 19, 1991 | Nov. 3, 1998 | Oct. 14 (36º) ? ? |
Gothenburg | Sep. 28 Oct. 4 Oct. 17 |
Sep. 19, 2006 | Oct. 27, 2013 | Oct. 14 (30º) Oct. 14 (30º) Oct. 16 (26º) |
Kearney Airport (NWS Observer) |
Sep. 29 Oct. 9 ​Oct. 19 |
Sep. 19, 1991 | Oct. 25, 1997 | Oct. 14 (33º) Oct. 22 (32º) ? |
Grand Island (airport) |
Oct. 1 Oct. 10 ​Oct. 18 |
Sep. 19, 1991 | Oct. 26, 2007 | Oct. 14 (35º) Oct. 16 (32º) ? |
Holdrege | Oct. 3 Oct. 11 ​Oct. 19 |
Sep. 20, 1991 | Nov. 4, 1998 | Oct. 14 (30º) Oct. 14 (30º) ? |
Hastings (airport) |
Oct. 3 Oct. 12 ​Oct. 20 |
Sep. 20, 1991 | Nov. 3, 1998 | Oct. 14 (33º) ? ? |
Geneva | Oct. 6 Oct. 15 ​Oct. 22 |
Sep. 19, 1991 | Nov. 3, 1998 | Oct. 14 (36º) Oct. 16 (32º) ? |
Cambridge | Sep. 27 Oct. 3 ​Oct. 15 |
Sep. 13, 2014 | Oct. 25, 1997 | Sep. 22 (36º) Oct. 14 (30º) Oct. 16 (28º) |
Hebron | Oct. 2 Oct. 12 ​Oct. 21 |
Sep. 19, 1991 | Oct. 29, 2015 | Oct. 14 (35º) Oct. 16 (31º) ? |
Smith Center, KS | Oct. 6 Oct. 16 ​Oct. 24 |
Sep. 22, 1995 | Nov. 4, 1998 | Oct. 15 (36º) Oct. 16 (32º) ? |
Plainville, KS | Oct. 7 Oct. 16 ​Oct. 24 |
Sep. 20, 1995 | Nov. 3, 1998 | Oct. 14 (36º) Oct. 21 (32º) ? |
Beloit, KS | Oct. 8 Oct. 15 ​Oct. 26 |
Sep. 13, 2014 | Nov. 10, 1998 | Oct. 16 (33º) Oct. 30 (32º) ? |
A Look Back At The Unusually Early Frost/Freeze Of September 1974:
One of the earliest frost and/or freezes on record in parts of central/south central NE and north central KS occurred the first week of September 1974, as many locations dropped below the freezing mark on Sept. 3rd! Just as a few examples: NWS cooperative observers in Beaver City/Ravenna reported morning lows as cold as 29º. Even in our KS coverage area, Webster Dam fell to 32º.
A surface weather map (below left) from Sept. 3, 1974 depicted just why such cold temperatures were observed. An unseasonably cold airmass roared into the region behind a strong cold front. Eventually, surface high pressure set up over the region, creating an ideal situation for a record early freeze. In fact, note the handwritten comment "Record early damaging frosts, corn belt area" at the top of the weather map. The original NWS cooperative observation forms from Gothenburg and Greeley NE are also depicted below. The Gothenburg observer noted "Clear. Froze. Ice. Crop Damage" on the right side of the form on the 3rd. It's also interesting to note that both Gothenburg and Greeley recorded freezing temperatures again just 10 days later on Sept. 13!
Sep. 3, 1974 Weather Map | Gothenburg, NE Observation Form | Greeley, NE Observation Form |
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