Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some radar returns across north/western Pennsylvania are likely
struggling to reach the ground in the near-term with low- level
dry air in place. Better chances for precipitation come after 
06Z Sunday based on a consensus of GLAMP/HREF guidance, thus 
have trended back any mentions of precipitation at BFD until 
after 06Z Sunday. Snowfall will begin with restrictions to 
MVFR/high-end IFR at BFD as there remains some uncertainty with 
respect to how east the heaviest band of snowfall will extend 
between 06-08Z Sunday. There remains a lower probability 
solution where the heavier band sneaks into BFD closer to 07Z 
and brings (V)LIFR restrictions; however, confidence remains too
low (~20-30%) to include in the 00Z TAF package and might be 
better resolved in the 06Z TAF package with current radar trends
available at that time.

Precipitation is expected (based on GLAMP/RAP/HREF guidance) to
enter JST/AOO closer to the 11-12Z timeframe and gradually 
extend eastward with prevailing MVFR restrictions limited to 
JST/AOO/UNV at this time. There remains a lower confidence 
solution where lower ceilings develop at IPT (~30% probability) 
so have outlined a PROB30 group for this outcome. IFR 
restrictions after 12Z will look confined to western terminals 
(BFD/JST) for the 00Z TAF package.

Moderate-to-high (~60-70%) confidence in LLWS exists at all 
airfields outside of UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS after 11Z with the cold 
frontal passage and increased low-level flow behind the frontal 
passage across central Pennsylvania. Recent TAF package 
continues mentions for these restrictions, with slight timing 
adjustments based on RAP/GLAMP model guidance.

Outlook... 

Mon...Mixed/wintry precip likely early on. MVFR likely. IFR 
possible.

Tue...Snow possible, before a possible mix later in the day 
across the south. Restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...Trending drier, lingering snow across NW PA.

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