Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A few rain showers continue to linger across the area as of the
beginning of the 00Z TAF package. These showers should move out
of the region within the next few hours. The resulting south- 
southeasterly flow will lead to increasing low- level moisture 
over much of Central PA. This will cause MVFR ceilings to 
develop almost everywhere tonight, with the potential exception
of JST. RAP model soundings suggest that the low clouds would 
make it there, but the GLAMP and HREF show a less than 40% 
chance of MVFR ceilings developing. Given the uncertainty at
that site we kept site borderline VFR overnight.

The other concern tonight will be LLWS as a 45 to 55 knot low-
level jet moves in and surface wind gusts decrease. BFD will be 
the first airfield to see wind shear develop and the threat will
spread southeastward through the late evening. The potential 
for LLWS will reach MDT and LNS in the 06-08Z timeframe.

A decaying line of convection will reach the central PA area 
during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning. Instability will be 
limited the further east these storms move, however sites in the
west such as JST/AOO/BFD could see damaging wind gusts and 
rumbles of thunder. As these storms reach eastern PA by late 
morning they'll likely be light or nothing more than drizzle. 
Reductions in visibility will still be possible over MDT and 
LNS. Latest HREF shows a break in precipitation before another 
round of convection initiates across the southern half of PA 
with the passage of the cold front. Guidance still is showing a 
wide spread of solutions as to the exact timing convection will 
initiate come Thursday afternoon. 

Outlook... 

Thu...MVFR poss in widespread rain showers. TSRA poss, mainly S.
CFROPA aftn/eve.

Fri...MVFR cigs and visby expected, mainly S.

Sat...Widespread showers; impacts likely.

Sun...Widespread showers; impacts likely.

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