Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
All model guidance continues to indicate VFR conditions with 
clear skies for a majority of the overnight period (through 10Z 
Wednesday) with the bulk of model guidance leading to high 
(~80-90%) confidence in VFR conditions remaining through 18Z 
Wednesday. Recent model guidance brings a line of showers 
towards BFD in the 18-20Z timeframe, overspreading eastward 
through 00Z Thursday, with some potential for TSRA across W PA. 
At this time, mentions of TSRA are out of the 00Z TAF package as
elevated instability is not the most impressive; however cannot
rule out some thunder across BFD/JST/AOO. Ceilings are expected
(~80-90%) to prevail MVFR at BFD/JST with some signals in RAP 
model guidance for IFR ceilings at onset at BFD. IFR conditions 
at BFD seem to be a less likely scenario (~30% probability), 
thus have kept any mentions with a PROB30 group. Further SE 
(LNS/MDT), lower confidence on SHRA impacting the airfields 
based on drier low-levels, thus have kept mentions out of the 
00Z TAF package at this time.

Outlook... 

Thu...MVFR poss in widespread rain showers. TSRA poss, mainly S.
CFROPA aftn/eve.

Fri...MVFR cigs and visby expected, mainly S.

Sat...Widespread showers; impacts likely.

Sun...Widespread showers; impacts likely.

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