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Probabilistic QPF Experiment
 

Liquid Precipitation Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Liquid Precip - Official NWS Forecast
Switch to:
Official NWS Forecast Liquid Precipitation Totals

What's this?

High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Maximum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Minimum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more liquid will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Liquid Precipitation - Official NWS Forecast

This map is the official NWS liquid precipitation forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This liquid precipitation amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. The Point button displays values at the sample points that represent the forecast at that location to the one hundred of an inch of rain. The Range button displays the 10-90% percentile range at the same points, that is, the range with an 80% chance that rain will fall somewhere within the range (there is a 20% chance rain will fall outside that range at the sampled point).

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more liquid will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic liquid precipitation products is to provide customers and partners a range of liquid precipitation possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic liquid precipitation graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during PQPF weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that liquid precipitation will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid precipitation totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.01"
>=0.01"
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=0.25"
>=0.25"
>=0.5"
>=0.50"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=8"
>=8"
>=16"
>=8"
Probability Graphic

Liquid Precipitation Totals by Location
Experimental -

Liquid Precipitation Totals by Location

These tables show the liquid precipitation forecast for individual locations. The tables provide the same information as the maps on this web page, just shown in a different way. The "Exceedance" option shows the chance that liquid will exceed a certain threshold. The "Range" option shows the likelihood of liquid precipitation being within a certain range. All of these values are valid for the same time period as depicted on the graphics.

 
 
Switch to:
Liquid Precipitation Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Liquid Precip - Official NWS Forecast
Switch to:
Official NWS Forecast Liquid Precipitation Totals
What's this?
High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Maximum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Minimum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more liquid will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Liquid Precipitation - Official NWS Forecast

This map is the official NWS liquid precipitation forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This liquid precipitation amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. The Point button displays values at the sample points that represent the forecast at that location to the one hundred of an inch of rain. The Range button displays the 10-90% percentile range at the same points, that is, the range with an 80% chance that rain will fall somewhere within the range (there is a 20% chance rain will fall outside that range at the sampled point).

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more liquid will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic liquid precipitation products is to provide customers and partners a range of liquid precipitation possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic liquid precipitation graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during PQPF weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that liquid precipitation will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid precipitation totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.01"
>=0.01"
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=0.25"
>=0.25"
>=0.5"
>=0.50"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=8"
>=8"
>=16"
>=8"
Probability Graphic
Liquid Precipitation Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Liquid Precip - Official NWS Forecast
Switch to:
Official NWS Forecast Liquid Precipitation Totals
What's this?
High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Maximum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Minimum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more liquid will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Liquid Precipitation - Official NWS Forecast

This map is the official NWS liquid precipitation forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This liquid precipitation amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. The Point button displays values at the sample points that represent the forecast at that location to the one hundred of an inch of rain. The Range button displays the 10-90% percentile range at the same points, that is, the range with an 80% chance that rain will fall somewhere within the range (there is a 20% chance rain will fall outside that range at the sampled point).

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more liquid will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

 

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic liquid precipitation products is to provide customers and partners a range of liquid precipitation possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic liquid precipitation graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during PQPF weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that liquid precipitation will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid precipitation totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.01"
>=0.01"
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=0.25"
>=0.25"
>=0.5"
>=0.50"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=8"
>=8"
>=16"
>=8"
Probability Graphic

Liquid Precipitation Totals by Location
Experimental -

Liquid Precipitation Totals by Location

These tables show the liquid precipitation forecast for individual locations. The tables provide the same information as the maps on this web page, just shown in a different way. The "Exceedance" option shows the chance that liquid will exceed a certain threshold. The "Range" option shows the likelihood of liquid precipitation being within a certain range. All of these values are valid for the same time period as depicted on the graphics.

 
 
Switch to:
Liquid Precipitation Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Liquid Precip - Official NWS Forecast
Switch to:
Official NWS Forecast Liquid Precipitation Totals
What's this?
High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Maximum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Minimum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more liquid will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Liquid Precipitation - Official NWS Forecast

This map is the official NWS liquid precipitation forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This liquid precipitation amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. The Point button displays values at the sample points that represent the forecast at that location to the one hundred of an inch of rain. The Range button displays the 10-90% percentile range at the same points, that is, the range with an 80% chance that rain will fall somewhere within the range (there is a 20% chance rain will fall outside that range at the sampled point).

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more liquid will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

 

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic liquid precipitation products is to provide customers and partners a range of liquid precipitation possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic liquid precipitation graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during PQPF weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that liquid precipitation will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid precipitation totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.01"
>=0.01"
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=0.25"
>=0.25"
>=0.5"
>=0.50"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=8"
>=8"
>=16"
>=8"
Probability Graphic
Liquid Precipitation Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Liquid Precip - Official NWS Forecast
Switch to:
Official NWS Forecast Liquid Precipitation Totals
What's this?
High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Maximum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Minimum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more liquid will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Liquid Precipitation - Official NWS Forecast

This map is the official NWS liquid precipitation forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This liquid precipitation amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. The Point button displays values at the sample points that represent the forecast at that location to the one hundred of an inch of rain. The Range button displays the 10-90% percentile range at the same points, that is, the range with an 80% chance that rain will fall somewhere within the range (there is a 20% chance rain will fall outside that range at the sampled point).

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more liquid will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

 

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic liquid precipitation products is to provide customers and partners a range of liquid precipitation possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic liquid precipitation graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during PQPF weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that liquid precipitation will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid precipitation totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.01"
>=0.01"
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=0.25"
>=0.25"
>=0.5"
>=0.50"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=8"
>=8"
>=16"
>=8"
Probability Graphic

Liquid Precipitation Totals by Location
Experimental -

Liquid Precipitation Totals by Location

These tables show the liquid precipitation forecast for individual locations. The tables provide the same information as the maps on this web page, just shown in a different way. The "Exceedance" option shows the chance that liquid will exceed a certain threshold. The "Range" option shows the likelihood of liquid precipitation being within a certain range. All of these values are valid for the same time period as depicted on the graphics.

 
 
Switch to:
Liquid Precipitation Amount Potential
Experimental -
 
Expected Liquid Precip - Official NWS Forecast
Switch to:
Official NWS Forecast Liquid Precipitation Totals
What's this?
High End Amount
1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Maximum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?
Low End Amount
9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

Minimum Potential Liquid Accumulation
What's this?

Low End Amount - 9 in 10 Chance (90%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable lower-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This lower amount is an unlikely scenario with a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that more liquid will fall, and only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as a lower-end scenario for planning purposes.

Expected Liquid Precipitation - Official NWS Forecast

This map is the official NWS liquid precipitation forecast in inches during the time period shown on the graphic. This liquid precipitation amount is determined by NWS forecasters to be the most likely outcome based on evaluation of data from computer models, satellite, radar, and other observations. The Point button displays values at the sample points that represent the forecast at that location to the one hundred of an inch of rain. The Range button displays the 10-90% percentile range at the same points, that is, the range with an 80% chance that rain will fall somewhere within the range (there is a 20% chance rain will fall outside that range at the sampled point).

High End Amount - Only a 1 in 10 Chance (10%) of Higher Liquid Precipitation

This map depicts a reasonable upper-end liquid amount for the time period shown on the graphic, based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid totals. This higher amount is an unlikely scenario, with only a 1 in 10, or 10% chance that more liquid will fall, and a 9 in 10, or 90% chance that less liquid will fall. This number can help serve as an upper-end scenario for planning purposes.

 

The purpose of these experimental probabilistic liquid precipitation products is to provide customers and partners a range of liquid precipitation possibilities, in complement to existing NWS deterministic liquid precipitation graphics, to better communicate forecast uncertainties during PQPF weather events. For more information visit this project's Product/Service Description Document, and please provide us your feedback here.
Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than...
Experimental -
 
What's this?

Percent Chance That Liquid Precipitation Amounts Will Be Greater Than

This series of maps shows the probability (that is, the likelihood) that liquid precipitation will equal or exceed specific amounts during the time period shown on the graphic. These forecasts are based on many computer model simulations of possible liquid precipitation totals.

Hover over thumbnails below to view larger image.
>=0.01"
>=0.01"
>=0.1"
>=0.1"
>=0.25"
>=0.25"
>=0.5"
>=0.50"
>=1"
>=1"
>=2"
>=2"
>=4"
>=4"
>=8"
>=8"
>=16"
>=8"
Probability Graphic
Long-Range Forecast
 
Days 4-5 Forecast Precipitation Days 6-7 Forecast Precipitation
Days 4-5 Precip Days 6-7 Precip
   

Days 6-10

Temperature Precipitation
6-10 day 
		
		temperature 6-10 day 
		
		precipitation
   

Days 8-14

TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
8-14 day 
		
		temperature 8-14 day 
		
		precipitation
   

Week 3-4

TEMPERATURE

PRECIPITATION

Week 3-4 
		
		Temperature Week 3-4 
		
		precipitation