The extremely dangerous heat wave continues across the East Coast and much of the South-Central U.S. today. Record high temperatures are expected for some areas especially across the Mid-Atlantic where extreme heat risk conditions reside. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms today for the northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of southern New England. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Northern_Greens Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20240717_1200 Using the MB925 to MB850 layer. Assumes Northern_Greens are orthogonal to 290 degree winds. 925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Northern_Greens. Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in) === ===== === ==== ==== === === === ==== Wed 07/17 12Z 0.46 2516 94 81 15 0.00 Wed 07/17 13Z 0.50 2518 94 93 15 0.00 Wed 07/17 14Z 0.58 2419 90 85 15 0.00 Wed 07/17 15Z 0.70 2417 90 86 15 0.00 Wed 07/17 16Z 0.76 2315 84 92 16 0.00 Wed 07/17 17Z 0.96 2214 80 88 16 0.00 Wed 07/17 18Z 0.60 2012 79 89 16 0.02 Wed 07/17 19Z 1.31 2917 90 87 15 0.58 Wed 07/17 20Z 0.57 2918 86 85 16 0.73 Wed 07/17 21Z 0.58 2916 83 67 16 0.03 Wed 07/17 22Z 0.58 2814 78 55 15 0.00 Wed 07/17 23Z 0.48 2612 79 58 15 0.00 Thu 07/18 00Z 0.42 2513 89 55 15 0.00 Thu 07/18 01Z 0.52 2614 93 61 15 0.01 Thu 07/18 02Z 0.64 2616 94 59 14 0.04 Thu 07/18 03Z 0.70 2715 89 58 13 0.03 Thu 07/18 04Z 0.62 2715 83 60 13 0.00 Thu 07/18 05Z 0.57 2715 77 58 14 0.00 Thu 07/18 06Z 0.71 2816 86 52 13 0.00 Thu 07/18 07Z 0.78 2916 84 54 12 0.00 Thu 07/18 08Z 0.70 2916 90 55 12 0.00 Thu 07/18 09Z 0.55 2915 90 57 12 0.00 Thu 07/18 10Z 0.49 2915 84 55 12 0.00 Thu 07/18 11Z 0.46 2915 81 66 12 0.00 Thu 07/18 12Z 0.50 2816 76 28 12 0.00 Thu 07/18 13Z 0.53 2816 77 37 11 0.00 Thu 07/18 14Z 0.61 2816 75 25 11 0.00 Thu 07/18 15Z 0.92 2815 76 18 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 16Z 1.33 2815 81 23 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 17Z 1.41 2716 89 22 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 18Z 1.38 2717 90 16 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 19Z 1.19 2817 89 19 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 20Z 1.39 2818 82 19 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 21Z 1.07 2918 84 21 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 22Z 0.94 2918 85 21 10 0.00 Thu 07/18 23Z 0.84 2919 89 21 9 0.01 Fri 07/19 00Z 0.76 2920 91 18 9 0.01 Fri 07/19 01Z 0.74 3021 93 17 9 0.01 Fri 07/19 02Z 0.65 3020 93 19 8 0.02 Fri 07/19 03Z 0.61 3019 93 20 8 0.02 Fri 07/19 04Z 0.57 3118 94 23 8 0.01 Fri 07/19 05Z 0.52 3117 94 26 8 0.01 Fri 07/19 06Z 0.42 3114 92 32 8 0.01 Fri 07/19 07Z 0.31 3112 89 28 9 0.01 Fri 07/19 08Z 0.28 3213 88 31 9 0.00 Fri 07/19 09Z 0.27 3213 87 37 9 0.00 Fri 07/19 10Z 0.23 3312 82 34 9 0.00 Fri 07/19 11Z 0.21 3311 75 32 9 0.00 Fri 07/19 12Z 0.19 3209 74 32 9 0.00 Fri 07/19 13Z 0.17 3208 73 30 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 14Z 0.19 3108 75 29 9 0.00 Fri 07/19 15Z 0.20 3108 76 25 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 16Z 0.20 3207 75 23 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 17Z 0.23 3107 75 21 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 18Z 0.27 3007 73 17 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 19Z 0.38 2907 71 14 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 20Z 0.47 2907 72 11 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 21Z 0.51 2807 78 11 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 22Z 0.48 2708 85 15 10 0.00 Fri 07/19 23Z 0.51 2609 87 19 10 0.00 Run total areal avg QPF for the Northern_Greens is: 1.55 inches. Froude Number (Frd#): Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked. Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest. W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes. Gap winds possible. Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked. Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest. W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including: Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln. Gap winds possible. Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical. With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible. Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side. W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom. Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow). Air flows freely over terrain. Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries. Relative Humidity (RH): 925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation. with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow. with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible. 850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1) T > -11 10-15:1 T -11 to -15 25-35:1 T < -15 15-20:1