National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Wintry Precipitation Expected Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning

Winter Weather Advisory issued for 8PM Wednesday through 11AM Thursday for snow and sleet accumulations up to 2 inches, with freezing rain accumulations up to two-tenths of an inch. Winds could gust up to 35 mph at times. Isolated power outages are possible, and the Thursday morning commute could become hazardous. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Northern_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20250401_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Northern_Greens are orthogonal to 290 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Northern_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 04/01 18Z 13.90 3022  83   3 -11 0.00
Tue 04/01 19Z 16.95 3026  79   4 -11 0.00
Tue 04/01 20Z 15.69 3027  76   5 -11 0.00
Tue 04/01 21Z 15.08 3028  75   5 -11 0.00
Tue 04/01 22Z 13.93 3028  75   6 -12 0.00
Tue 04/01 23Z 8.97 3030  74   7 -12 0.00
Wed 04/02 00Z 5.15 3132  73   7 -13 0.00
Wed 04/02 01Z 3.44 3131  68   8 -13 0.00
Wed 04/02 02Z 1.79 3229  61  10 -13 0.00
Wed 04/02 03Z 1.23 3227  61  10 -14 0.00
Wed 04/02 04Z 0.79 3225  59  11 -14 0.00
Wed 04/02 05Z 0.55 3322  55  10 -13 0.00
Wed 04/02 06Z 0.44 3320  50   9 -13 0.00
Wed 04/02 07Z 0.36 3319  42   9 -12 0.00
Wed 04/02 08Z 0.28 3418  34  11 -12 0.00
Wed 04/02 09Z 0.22 3417  28  11 -12 0.00
Wed 04/02 10Z 0.17 3516  24  14 -11 0.00
Wed 04/02 11Z 0.13 3514  23  17 -11 0.00
Wed 04/02 12Z 0.09 3511  24  18 -11 0.00
Wed 04/02 13Z 0.05 0009  25  22 -10 0.00
Wed 04/02 14Z 0.04 0006  27  24 -10 0.00
Wed 04/02 15Z 0.02 0202  28  25  -9 0.00
Wed 04/02 16Z 0.03 0900  28  26  -9 0.00
Wed 04/02 17Z 0.05 1402  27  24  -8 0.00
Wed 04/02 18Z 0.06 1603  23  22  -6 0.00
Wed 04/02 19Z 0.09 1606  19  24  -5 0.00
Wed 04/02 20Z 0.10 1708  18  36  -4 0.00
Wed 04/02 21Z 0.13 1610  18  53  -3 0.00
Wed 04/02 22Z 0.14 1715  19  82  -3 0.00
Wed 04/02 23Z 0.14 1818  19  93  -2 0.00
Thu 04/03 00Z 0.16 1822  39  95  -3 0.00
Thu 04/03 01Z 0.26 1725  47  97  -2 0.00
Thu 04/03 02Z 0.41 1628  67  98  -4 0.00
Thu 04/03 03Z 0.42 1634  91  99  -4 0.06
Thu 04/03 04Z 0.42 1638  94  99  -3 0.09
Thu 04/03 05Z 0.41 1741  94  98  -3 0.19
Thu 04/03 06Z 0.37 1742  96  97  -3 0.22
Thu 04/03 07Z 0.30 1845  97  98  -2 0.20
Thu 04/03 08Z 0.14 1948  97  97   0 0.10
Thu 04/03 09Z 0.04 1950  97  95   3 0.09
Thu 04/03 10Z 0.08 2051  96  83   7 0.08
Thu 04/03 11Z 0.18 2153  96  65   9 0.06
Thu 04/03 12Z 0.28 2247  97  83   9 0.04
Thu 04/03 13Z 0.23 2145  96  94  10 0.04
Thu 04/03 14Z 0.28 2247  96  84  10 0.13
Thu 04/03 15Z 0.34 2249  95  71  10 0.02
Thu 04/03 16Z 0.51 2350  97  86  10 0.01
Thu 04/03 17Z 0.62 2445  93  93  10 0.03
Thu 04/03 18Z 0.57 2441  71  90  11 0.01
Thu 04/03 19Z 0.71 2437  77  20   8 0.00
Thu 04/03 20Z 0.75 2434  86  10   7 0.00
Thu 04/03 21Z 0.98 2534  93   3   6 0.00
Thu 04/03 22Z 1.15 2635  96   4   6 0.01
Thu 04/03 23Z 1.50 2538  92   3   5 0.01
Fri 04/04 00Z 2.14 2640  88   1   4 0.00
Fri 04/04 01Z 2.36 2643  89   1   3 0.00
Fri 04/04 02Z 1.90 2741  91   5   2 0.00
Fri 04/04 03Z 1.98 2737  94   9   0 0.01
Fri 04/04 04Z 1.72 2737  89  11  -1 0.01
Fri 04/04 05Z 1.26 2836  79  11  -1 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Northern_Greens is: 1.41 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1